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The Roadmap To Normalization Is A Roadmap To Oblivion For Armenia

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  • The Roadmap To Normalization Is A Roadmap To Oblivion For Armenia

    THE ROADMAP TO NORMALIZATION IS A ROADMAP TO OBLIVION FOR ARMENIA
    By Michael Mensoian

    http://www.asbarez.com/2009/05/22/the-ro admap-to-normalization-is-a-roadmap-to-oblivion-fo r-armenia/
    May 22, 2009

    The "roadmap to normalization" is a roadmap to oblivion for
    Armenia. Secrecy in the ongoing negotiations may be necessary, but
    given the advantage that Turkey enjoys and the strident comments
    made by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Abdullah Gul,
    and the former Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Babacan, the only
    conclusion that can be reached is that the negotiations are not
    beneficial for Armenia.

    Turkey still persists in demanding preconditions which, if accepted,
    would be a tacit admission by Yerevan that genocide recognition and
    Nagorno-Karabakh's continued independence will not stand in the way
    of normalizing relations. For sure, Turkey will not budge on the
    genocide issue and will not forsake its ally Azerbaijan. Both Ankara
    and Washington know that Russia is standing in the wings ready to do
    whatever it can to bring Azerbaijan within its orbit. The Nabucco gas
    pipeline project has evidently been approved by all participating
    nations. Eventually, gas supplies from Central Asia will be pumped
    beneath the Caspian Sea to be sent through this pipeline to the
    European Union. Armenia will have no part to play in this new economic
    endeavor. Having a fairly accurate sense as to what normalization
    may cost Armenia, what are the benefits that Yerevan believes it
    may obtain?

    The opening of the border will result in a significant increase
    in traffic. Unfortunately, it will primarily be a one-way flow of
    goods from Turkey to Armenia. How Armenia, with its US $18 billion
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expects to compete with Turkey's US
    $800 billion GDP is difficult to imagine. Eventually, Armenia will
    not only become part of the Turkish domestic market, but it will be
    dependent upon Turkey for much of its manufactured goods. A related
    development could well be a rise in unemployment and a decrease in
    productivity since Turkey is better positioned to expand its production
    facilities and attract the necessary labor. In addition, a real
    possibility exists for Armenian entrepreneurs to migrate to Turkey,
    where economic opportunity should be greater than in Armenia. Given
    the volume and variety of goods stamped "made in Turkey" that will
    flood the Armenian market, there will be an imbalance of payment
    situation-with Turkey becoming the creditor nation. There are few
    goods or commodities produced in Armenia that are not produced in
    greater quantities in Turkey, which limits any significant flow of
    traffic from Armenia to Turkey. Is this what Yerevan believes will be
    a benefit derived from normalization? Within a relatively short time,
    the Armenian dram would most likely lose its value as the currency
    of choice, being replaced by the Turkish lira.

    Any potential the Armenian economy currently has would be limited
    since its development will be determined by Turkish entrepreneurs
    who will be influenced by Ankara's political objectives vis-a-vis
    Yerevan. Normalization will not remove the existing impediments
    hampering the Armenian economy. Of greater importance, potential
    initiatives that are vital if Armenia's economy is to develop will
    be hampered by its economic domination by Turkey.

    Politically, Armenia will retain its independent status. However, its
    initiatives in the international arena will be influenced by Ankara. To
    borrow a term from the distant past, the president of Armenia will be
    no better than a satrap. With respect to Nagorno-Karabakh (historic
    Artsakh), its future will be bleak. As a precondition, Armenia is
    being asked to sacrifice the de facto independence of its brothers
    and sisters. This would be a travesty should Yerevan agree. The 7,000
    azatamartiks (freedom-fighters) are no less martyrs than the 1,500,000
    innocent Armenian men, women, and children who were slaughtered during
    the genocide carried out by the Ottoman Turkish government and the
    Ataturk Turkish government. Can there be any justification for Yerevan
    abandoning Karabakh? For abandoning the martyrs of the genocide?

    In 15 years, the Karabakhtsis have overcome obstacles that many thought
    were insurmountable. They have developed a democratic government
    while Azerbaijan maintains a Soviet-style autocratic government. In
    1923, Armenia had no say when the Bolsheviks forced the separation
    of historic Armenian Artsakh and Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan. To allow
    Artsakh to revert to Azeri control again is unconscionable. This may
    well be the moment when it is absolutely necessary for Armenia to
    decide whether it will become a compliant neighbor or accept the
    challenge, daunting as it may be, to protect its future and the
    independence of Artsakh as well. One may say this is easier said
    than done. Agreed. However, normalization will reduce Armenia to a
    vassal state. How will this differ from the Soviet Socialist Republic
    of Armenia?

    No one should fail to see the duplicitous nature of United States
    foreign policy with respect to Armenia. The present Democrat
    administration supports Turkey's entry into the European Union. It
    suggests that Turkey should have a role in bringing the Karabakh
    conflict to an end. It supports the territorial integrity of
    Azerbaijan. And just recently, aid to Armenia in the budget year for
    2010 was reduced while aid to Azerbaijan was increased. As it is said,
    when you know that the cards are stacked against you, only the fool
    continues to play.

    Leaders of our advocacy organizations have misread the political
    landscape once again. The emotional issue of genocide recognition
    is not the battle that should be fought at this time. While the
    Armenian Caucus is working diligently to line up additional support
    for the genocide resolution, the "war" for Armenia's future and
    that of Karabakh is being lost in the international arena. It is
    conceivable in the Machiavellian world of international politics for
    the genocide resolution to be passed by the United States Congress
    and reluctantly signed by President Obama, accompanied by an innocuous
    statement that Turkey would condemn with the proper amount of public
    indignation. Washington and Ankara could well have discussed this
    possibility notwithstanding the usual pressure from the pro-Turkish
    lobbying organizations. The price Turkey would extract from the Obama
    Administration would be its support in the ongoing negotiations
    with Armenia and the return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan. This would
    be Turkey's reward while the geo-strategic interests of the United
    States would be served.

    With limited political capital, the Armenian advocacy organization
    in the United States must speak with a unified voice and pick the
    single battle it will fight. Genocide recognition is not the battle
    that should be fought at this time. The efforts of the Congressional
    Armenian Caucus must be utilized in more effective ways to bring
    immediate economic and military benefits to Armenia and to Karabakh.

    How the negotiations leading to normalization will eventually play out
    can only be inferred from the public statements by Turkish leaders and
    the foreign policy of the United States. Once Armenia has accepted the
    conditions necessary for normalization, or whatever euphemistic term
    that may be substituted, Yerevan will have no valid reason to believe
    that Ankara will be motivated or even have the need to consider the
    legitimate issues that have separated the two countries. And what of
    those countries that have recognized the Armenian Genocide? Will they
    support Armenia, once normalization has been achieved, as it seeks
    to have Turkey consider the legitimate claims requiring restitution,
    reparation, rectification, and yes, recognition. Definitely not.

    Normalization is the end of Hai Tahd and it is the end for the justice
    that generations of Armenians have worked to achieve. Let's not say
    this is a pessimistic view because it doesn't comport with what we want
    to believe. It is an objective assessment of the situation based on
    the available evidence. Let us all hope that Yerevan will realize that
    normalization is not a panacea for the Armenian nation. If anything, it
    is detrimental to Armenia's national interests and its future security.
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