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Regrouping Of Interests Begins In The Region

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  • Regrouping Of Interests Begins In The Region

    REGROUPING OF INTERESTS BEGINS IN THE REGION
    Karine Ter-Sahakyan

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/
    30.05.2009 GMT+04:00

    The only thing Armenia should endeavor to avoid is to be squashed
    between the upper and the nether millstones of geopolitics, especially
    because she has already such an experience.

    The Islamic world surrounding Armenia can be divided into two
    groups. By the way, we have considered only those countries, which
    have the chances and the potential to become regional leaders
    not only within the confines of the Great Near East, but also in
    the entire Southwestern Asia. Thus, if we divide the potential
    leaders into groups, the following picture is obtained: Turkey,
    Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on the one hand, Iran, Syria and Egypt -
    on the other. Division into two groups is conditional and reflects
    the attitude of these states towards Armenia.

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ Let us consider these countries one by one. In
    the foreseeable future the first three countries will hardly
    change their attitude towards Yerevan because of the uncompromising
    position of Turkey (and Azerbaijan) in every issue, starting with
    the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and concluding with the difference
    between religions. Under such circumstances it is necessary to note
    that Islam, on the whole, is not such an important constituent in
    the relations with Christian Armenia; however, when necessary, it
    is put in the forefront. There is one more aspect to be considered -
    the difference in civilizations: nomadic and settled. Regarding Turkey
    and Azerbaijan this aspect is most clearly expressed, while in Saudi
    Arabia and Pakistan it is not so apparent.

    The position of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan proceeds not only from
    the Islamic solidarity and the support of Azerbaijan, but also to
    spite Iran, which together with Turkey is a basic pretender to the
    leader's position in the region. The Kurds, or, to be more exact,
    the relation of Yerevan towards them plays an important role in this
    plan too. Having been an instrument in the hands of the Ottoman and
    Persian Empires for several centuries, the Kurds now pose a serious
    threat to the integrity of Turkey. It is a very serious factor, even
    further straining the negative relation to Armenia, which by the Sunni
    Islamic world is considered to be almost the central supporting base
    of Kurdish separatism. As we have already noted, religion is only
    a pretense; the main reason is that in the course of its history
    Armenia has prevented the propagation of Islam, and before it -
    the propagation of Zoroastrianism. This principle did not work in
    the case of Iran; most apparently the common Parthian origin of our
    nations subconsciously played its role. But we'll reflect on Iran a bit
    later. The second serious pretender to the position of the regional
    leader is Pakistan, possessing nuclear weapons. Naturally, no one is
    going to employ them, but as a deterrent it works well. Regarding
    the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Pakistan has been on the side of
    Azerbaijan since earliest times, and there are facts proving that
    Pakistani militants joined the Afghan and Chechen mujahideen in the
    war against the NKR. The possibility of dominance of Saudi Arabia
    is somewhat problematic because of the military presence of the USA
    during the war with Iraq for Kuwait, and in this case it may play
    its negative role. However, this factor is not that important.

    As far as the Moslem countries are concerned, which traditionally
    support Armenia, the presence of Egypt, Syria and Iran in this list
    is more than reasonable and justifiable. First of all, rather an
    important role is played by the strong Armenian Diaspora. It should
    be remembered that Armenia, Egypt and Syria are also "friends by
    a concourse of circumstances"; Egypt and Syria gained independence
    as a result of collapse of the Ottoman Empire, just as Armenia to
    a certain extent. With respect to Yerevan, Syria and Egypt attempt
    to conduct a policy, more independent from the Organization of the
    Islamic Conference (OIC), and Iran will never obey the dictates of
    Turkish-speaking countries in OIC. The only thing Armenia should
    endeavor to avoid is to be squashed between the upper and the nether
    millstones of geopolitics, especially because she has already such
    an experience. There is no guarantee whatever that Armenia will
    not again be sacrificed to the interests of the powers: both old and
    new. Although there is some guarantee and no matter how strange it may
    sound, it is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Until the conflict gets
    final settlement on those conditions, which satisfy the conflicting
    parties to a greater or lesser extent, it is possible to live in
    a relative peace. But since there is no compromise in the air -
    similar conflicts cannot be solved without blood in the favor of
    this or that side. Almost no one doubts that sooner or later there
    will begin a war in the region. Simply time is required to integrate
    forces and finally clear up who against whom will "befriend". However,
    it will become clear in no less than five years. By that time it will
    be clear how the gas will go to Europe and what ending the infinite
    trading between Russia and the West will have. Everything may also
    occur considerably earlier: however, nothing essential will occur
    in the region before 2012, i.e. the time when Nabucco is launched
    and the railroad Baku- Tbilisi-Kars is built. There will be episodic
    diplomatic wars and state!
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