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The Russian-Turkish Rapprochement Could Benefit Armenia

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  • The Russian-Turkish Rapprochement Could Benefit Armenia

    THE RUSSIAN-TURKISH RAPPROCHEMENT COULD BENEFIT ARMENIA

    Eurasia Insight

    EurasiaNet.org
    2/01/05

    By Haroutiun Khachatrian

    Improving Russian-Turkish ties could benefit Armenia, as many experts
    and officials believe Moscow will place additional pressure on Ankara to
    lift a trade embargo and normalize relations with Yerevan. The
    Russian-Turkish rapprochement comes amid a growing US presence in the
    Caucasus, a region where both Russia and Turkey are considered regional
    superpowers and where both are eager to maintain their diplomatic and
    economic clout.

    A visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Turkey in December 2004 -
    the first ever by a Russian chief-of-state - intensified the diplomatic
    dialogue between the two states, which for decades had been sparring
    partners. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reciprocated the
    visit with an official trip to Moscow on January 10-12.

    A sizeable increase in trade and business ties provided the backdrop for
    these summits - Erdogan has forecast that bilateral annual trade is
    expected to more than double by 2007 to $25 billion -- but the Turkish
    press has argued that the true significance of these meetings is
    political. "Turkish-Russian ties gain a political dimension", The
    Turkish Daily News wrote recently. During Erdogan's trip to Moscow,
    Putin spoke out in favor of developing economic ties with Turkish
    Cypriots, a sensitive foreign policy point for Ankara, and promised to
    act as a mediator to resolve disputes between Turkey and Armenia.

    "We both agree that it is necessary to strive towards establishing
    friendly relations between neighbors," the Russian news agency Interfax
    quoted Putin as saying on January 11. "[Russia] will do everything
    possible to settle conflicts in the post-Soviet space . . . acting
    exclusively as a mediator and guarantor of future accords."

    Watching from the sidelines, analysts in Yerevan see the improved ties
    with Moscow as a sign that Turkey wants to cut its own path in foreign
    affairs, independent of the views of Washington, a fellow member of the
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization and longtime military partner.
    Turkey's relations with both the United States and Israel, a key
    American ally, have been strained of late. Turkish leaders are concerned
    about the presence of US forces in Iraq, and, last year, expressed
    dissatisfaction with Tel Aviv's treatment of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

    "We know that our responsibilities are not just internal anymore but in
    the Balkans, the Middle East, and the Caucasus and throughout the
    world,' Erdogan said in his 2005 New Year's speech, the Turkish daily
    Zaman reported. `Being conscious of this responsibility, we will carry
    Turkey to a more active point."

    Ruben Safrastian, head of the Turkey department at the Armenian National
    Academy of Science's Institute of Oriental Studies, argues that this
    `active point' means regaining influence over countries that were once
    part of the Ottoman Empire. That motivation parallels attempts by Russia
    to maintain its sway in countries, including Armenia, that were once
    part of the Soviet Union, he said. "Moscow is trying to use the
    privileges gained from high oil prices not only in the economic sphere,
    but also strategically. Thus, the two [regional] superpowers,
    dissatisfied with their role in the world, are trying to find a new
    place, a new niche,' Safrastian said in a recent interview with the
    Regnum.ru Russian news agency. Among the potential results of such an
    alliance: a Turkish partnership with the Shanghai Cooperation
    Organization, (which includes Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
    Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) and joint Turkish-Russian reconstruction
    projects in post-war Iraq. It is in the Caucasus that both countries
    will put their partnership to the test, observers believe. An Armenian
    diplomat, who asked not to be named, commented that US-Turkish relations
    started to worsen after Washington began training Georgian troops in
    2002. Turkey, formerly Washington's partner for advancing Western
    interests in the region, is becoming a competitor with Washington for
    influence, the diplomat said. Although Turkey continues to train
    Georgian military officers, and handed over $2 million worth of military
    equipment in 2004, its programs pale in comparison with US training
    initiatives. Washington has set aside $15 million in 2005 alone for its
    ongoing Georgian military training program, and Georgia has responded in
    kind with a contribution of over 800 troops to the US Iraqi
    reconstruction effort.

    Turkey is now looking to engage Russia diplomatically in order to check
    the growing US influence in the region, the diplomat said. Safrastian
    echoed this view, telling Regnum.ru that `The Caucasus is no longer a
    source of discord for Russia and Turkey.' According to this scenario,
    Russia's increased involvement in the economies of the south Caucasus
    countries would be reinforced by expanded trade with Turkey.

    While Armenian media and political parties have paid relatively little
    attention to these events, the government has been watching closely.
    Although no Russia-facilitated breakthrough is in the works for
    Armenian-Turkish relations, the topic's presence on the Putin-Erdogan
    summit agendas was nevertheless considered by Armenian officials as
    unprecedented.

    Accordingly, optimism in Yerevan for a breakthrough is on the increase.
    The Armenian diplomat said that the government sees the frequent
    meetings in 2004 between Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and
    his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul as the basis for an
    Armenian-Turkish thaw. "They had very thorough discussions and
    discovered that the two countries can cooperate well in many areas,' he
    said. `We believe that Turkey may initiate some steps to overcome the
    current deadlock.'

    Nonetheless, Yerevan is treading carefully. In a January 25 interview
    with the Turkish national daily Zaman, Oskanian said that he does not
    believe Russia's mediation will be decisive in resolving long-standing
    disputes between Turkey and Armenia. In this interview, apparently meant
    as a message to Turkey's political leadership following the
    Putin-Erdogan summits, Oskanian again dismissed the reasons usually
    cited for Ankara's unwillingness to normalize ties with Yerevan. The
    Armenian government, he said, does not insist that Turkey recognize the
    slaying of over a million Armenians in 1915 as genocide, nor is it
    considering claiming any territories or financial compensation from
    Turkey for lands lost after the border between the Soviet Union and
    Turkey was finalized in 1921. Oskanian's stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict, the primary reason for Turkey's decision to close its border
    with Armenia in 1993, was more prickly, however.

    The conflict, Oskanian said, is not a relevant problem for Turkey.
    `Turkey cannot mediate because it is partial. Russia, for instance, has
    no preconditions and is neutral. Turkey frequently offers its help as a
    mediator, and we hold bilateral meetings. We are not against meetings,
    but don't accept [Turkey's] mediation.'

    Rather, the key to reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia, the
    foreign minister said, would be a decision by Ankara to reopen Turkey's
    border with Armenia. `No one can insist that there can be normal
    relations between two countries if the border between them is closed. .
    . [W]e can't wait 10-15 years or longer, for Turkey to be accepted into
    the EU, for there to be some positive movement. We hope that very soon
    Turkey will open the border.'

    Editor's Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer
    specializing in economic and political affairs.


    http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav020105.shtml
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