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Analyst says Russia wants military presence in Azerbaijan

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  • Analyst says Russia wants military presence in Azerbaijan

    Analyst says Russia wants military presence in Azerbaijan

    Yeni Musavat, Baku
    2 Feb 05

    Excerpt from Elsad report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 2
    February headlined "Lavrov's visit has begun" and subheaded "Vafa
    Quluzada: ' In Azerbaijan, Russia intends to make up for its losses in
    Ukraine'"

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will begin his meetings in Baku
    today [on 2 February].

    [Passage omitted: Lavrov's schedule in Baku]

    Political analyst Vafa Quluzada believes that the visit should be
    closely watched. In his view, the visit of the Russian foreign
    minister to Azerbaijan is by no means a routine event. "Before this,
    Yevgeniy Primakov once came to Baku in his capacity as Russian foreign
    minister. True, there was a motive of personal friendship with [the
    late Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev in Primakov's
    visit. However, it became clear then that the objective behind
    Primakov's visit to Baku was to induce Azerbaijan to engage in direct
    talks with Nagornyy Karabakh."

    In Quluzada's opinion, Lavrov's objectives are broader than those of
    Primakov. "Because then there was no talk of a Nagornyy Karabakh peace
    accord based on compromise. Instead, there was talk of Azerbaijan's
    position, territorial integrity and the withdrawal of the occupying
    forces on the basis of UN resolutions, and giving the Armenians the
    autonomous status. This is why Russia wanted its troops to receive the
    status of peacekeepers at the Budapest summit [of the OSCE]."

    In Quluzada's view, Russia is trying to restore its military presence
    in Azerbaijan and seeks to turn the country into a member of the
    Collective Security Treaty.

    Commenting on reports that Russia could become a guarantor on
    Karabakh, Quluzada said: "Russia's guarantee means that Armenia
    withdraws its troops from certain districts and Russia occupies them
    to prevent clashes between the two sides. This signifies that Russia
    will establish complete control over Azerbaijan, like it did with
    Armenia."

    Quluzada did not rule out that all these issues could be discussed
    but, in his opinion, there is nothing else for Lavrov to do in
    Azerbaijan.

    Quluzada thinks that Moscow has drawn a complex plan regarding
    Azerbaijan. "Lavrov's visit could be the first step. Next,
    [Azerbaijani President Ilham] I. Aliyev is expected to visit Russia
    in February and will meet [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. Russia
    wants to use the Nagornyy Karabakh issue to return its armed forces to
    Azerbaijan. In a nutshell, Russia intends to compensate its failure in
    Ukraine by success in Azerbaijan."
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