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  • What If They Do Not Come To Agreement

    WHAT IF THEY DO NOT COME TO AGREEMENT
    HAKOB BADALYAN

    LRAGIR.AM
    11:32:23 - 01/07/2009

    The process of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement has again activated,
    and again optimistic statements are heard, which precede the regular
    Sargsyan-Aliev meeting in Moscow, which is going to be already
    the sixth one. Before this, the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign
    ministers met in Paris, then Medvedev visited Baku, after the OSCE
    Minsk group CO-Chairs were said to be coming to the region in the
    beginning of July, who, according to the statement of the French
    Foreign Ministry, had made new proposals on the settlement to the
    sides of the conflict. This nuance is interesting. It is interesting
    from the point that if there is mutual understanding in the negotiation
    process, as the mediators state, and there is also some progress, what
    is the sense of making new suggestions? If they propose new variants
    of mutual compromises, this means that there is no hope to come to
    agreement on the previous proposals, there is no prospect for it.

    In general, is there any prospect in connection with the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, or maybe the regular activation and
    the optimistic statements are just a part of the constructive
    atmosphere? On the one hand, it is difficult to believe that such
    kind of high-level imitation is organized. But, on the other hand,
    it is difficult to notice any edges of settlement of the conflict,
    because the clash of interests and disagreements of the geopolitical
    centers- U.S., Russia, Europe or France, in connection with the
    Nagorno-Karabakh issue are quite visible. In addition, these are those
    powers, which are openly involved in the process, while there are of
    course other powers, which are not evidently involved in it but are
    as much interested in the settlement of this conflict as the others.

    This variety of interest, in practice, does not let any other
    possibility for an agreement, than the one on the continuation of the
    process. In other words, there is no imitation as such, but there is
    no decision to settle the issue at any cost either. Merely, each of
    the sides involved in the conflict, is trying to do what is expedient
    for it. If they manage is good, and if they fail- what can we do? This
    is called diplomacy, when you try as much as you can to reach what
    you want. From this point of view, it is an illusion to think that
    the question on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is
    posed at any cost. For this, the agreement of all the geopolitical
    centers is needed. But this agreement cannot exist, because each of
    them has their own ides on the settlement of the conflict, and these
    ideas are not based on humanistic and peaceful strives, but they are
    dictated by the interests of the centers. Their interests, fortunately,
    coincide on one issue: to preserve peace in the region, not to restart
    a war. This is a very valuable agreement, which the superpowers have.

    But the fact that there will not be any war and there is no decision
    to settle the conflict at any cost does not mean that the present
    situation is just a theater. It is not a theater, but even if it is,
    it is led by the Shakespearian sprit "life is a theater". In other
    words, the life is the process, which moves forwards and where the
    directly or indirectly involved sides of the conflict live. In other
    words, the process of the settlement is the settlement, if we may
    say so. Consequently, it is very important, how everyone, including
    Armenia and Karabakh, will behave in this process. The point is that
    giving positive answers to all the proposals hoping that anyway,
    the interests of the superpowers will not let them be fulfilled,
    instead Armenia will secure its peaceful and constructive image as
    a republic, is too dangerous, which may only settle the question the
    strengthening of the governmental but not the state positions. And what
    is going to happen if the superpowers do not come to agreement? Since,
    even if the Caucasus is very important, it is a part of the world,
    consequently, a circle of the interests if the superpowers. In other
    words, all the decisions concerning the circle are made by the logic
    towards the whole chain.
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