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Nothing New: Armenian-Turkish Relations And CSTO

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  • Nothing New: Armenian-Turkish Relations And CSTO

    NOTHING NEW: ARMENIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS AND CSTO
    Karine Ter-Sahakyan

    PanARMENIAN.Net
    01.08.2009 GMT+04:00

    With the Armenian-Turkish border opened, Ankara's chances of joining
    the EU will not swell so much as to expect the integration in near
    future.

    The past week was rather eventful for Armenia, which is already quite
    a typical state for her. However, all the events were a sequential
    repetition: Armenian-Turkish relations, promulgation of the Madrid
    principles. But the thrill of the week was Armenian President Serzh
    Sargsyan's statement on the impossibility of his visit to Turkey over
    a closed Armenian-Turkish border.

    /PanARMENIAN.Net/ Sargsyan's statement, made during a joint press
    conference with his Serbian counterpart Boris Tadic, was later repeated
    at the meeting with Armenian Diaspora representatives. Unarguably, the
    Armenian President said what he was to say. Ankara's immediate reaction
    followed. If we leave out Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's
    statements, we can directly declare that Ankara is convinced of
    Sargsyan's visit to Bursa for the purpose of attending the football
    match between the Armenian and Turkish national teams. Azerbaijan
    couldn't but react to the incident either. Azeri political scientists
    expect that the Armenian President will after all attend the
    football match and ground their predictions with the expected visit
    of Vladimir Putin to Ankara due in August 2009. Baku's judgment is,
    as usual, simple: Putin will order, Sargsyan will go. Apparently,
    President of the "independent and sovereign Azerbaijan" does what
    he is ordered by Erdogan and Gul. Nevertheless, we must admit that
    the degree of probability of the Armenian President's presence at
    the match Turkey-Armenia is not so high. There is also the factor
    of the EU, which in this case plays against Turkey. Even if the
    Armenian-Turkish border is opened at least for two hours, it will
    be impossible to close it back, no matter how opposed Azerbaijan is
    to its opening. With the the Armenian-Turkish border opened, chances
    of Ankara to join the European Union will rise but not so much as to
    expect the integration in near future; however the negotiations will
    go more easily, and Turkey is well-aware of it.

    The second event of the week was the already traditional "without tie"
    meeting of the CSTO members in Kyrgyzstan. Everybody was present,
    including Alexander Lukashenko and Islam Karimov, who has not so far
    decided whether CSTO is necessary to Uzbekistan or not. After all, it
    is necessary: the border disputes between the Central Asian countries
    can best be addressed with the participation of a third country,
    i.e. Russia. Whether anyone likes it or not is quite a different
    question, but the fact is that thus far in the post-Soviet territory
    this Organization replaces NATO, for the countries drawn into the
    orbit of Russia.

    At the summit the Presidents evidently discussed the issue of
    establishment of collective rapid reaction forces (CRRF), but it is
    hardly possible that they arrived at an understanding. In our view, the
    problem is not financing, but the fuzziness in the spheres of activity
    of CRRF. Belarus and Armenia rightly believe that their subdivisions
    will have to participate in military operations in Central Asia, while
    CSTO has been repeatedly declaring about the non-intervention of the
    forces of Organization in the Karabakh conflict, in case Azerbaijan
    starts military aggression. All this, of course, cannot but put
    Yerevan on her guard. It seems CRRF will remain a pious wish until
    the end of the year like many other initiatives within the framework
    of the CIS and the CSTO.

    And, finally, at the end of the week Tehran began trials against
    the opposition politicians, who are accused of provoking riots. The
    case of 100 people suspected of causing tension after the presidential
    elections in Iran, will be considered at the court trial, reported news
    agency Fars. The defendants are mostly political activists of the camp
    of reformists. Those detained are accused of conspiring with terrorist
    groups, laying a bomb, carrying firearms and hand grenades, as well
    as intentionally attacking the police and volunteers, providing the
    enemy press with photographs related to the rallies, robbing, violating
    the law and damaging general and public property. Iran is presently
    "renowned" by the atrocities against those thinking differently and
    those violating the regime of ayatollahs. But this time there may be
    quite a different outcome: Tehran needs participation in Nabucco,
    and for that reason she would like to look a civilized country in
    the eyes of the West.
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