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TURKEY ISTANBUL CALLING: FOR TURKEY AND ARMENIA, A ROADMAP'S UNCLEAR FINAL DESTINATION
Yigal Schleifer
The Faster Times
http://thefastertimes.com/turkey/2009/09/07/ istanbul-calling-for-turkey-and-armenia-a-roadmaps -unclear-final-destination/
Sept 7 2009
Last week's announcement by Turkey and Armenia that they have agreed
on a set of protocols that will lead towards the normalization of
their relations and the opening of their borders was certainly welcome
news. A previous breakthrough in Turkish-Armenian reconciliation --
last April's vague declaration that the two countries had agreed on a
"roadmap" for restoring relations -- quickly fizzled out when Turkish
prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that there would be no
progress on the Armenian front until the "full liberation" of the Azeri
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by Armenian forces since 1993.
What's different this time around is the release of the detailed
protocols, which offer a clear path towards the reopening of the
Turkish-Armenian border and renewal of diplomatic ties between
Ankara and Yerevan. But has Turkey really changed its position on
the Nagorno-Karabakh issue? Will the Turkish parliament, which must
ratify the protocols for them to take effect (as does Armenia's),
support the move without any concrete action on the Nagorno-Karabakh
front? From an analysis piece I have up on the Eurasianet website:
The Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is a complicating factor for the
ratification of the protocols. Turkey is Azerbaijan's strongest ally,
and Ankara imposed its economic blockade on Armenia in 1993 to support
Baku's efforts to retain control over Karabakh. Currently, Armenian
forces control Karabakh, along with large areas of Azerbaijan proper
that surround the enclave.
The timing of the withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied
Azerbaijani lands is one of the primary sticking points in the Karabakh
peace process.
The announcement last April of the existence of a "roadmap" to renew
ties between Turkey and Armenia led to a strong backlash from Baku,
and to what seemed like a stepping back from the deal on Ankara's part.
During a May 14 address to the Azerbaijani parliament, Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared "that the border between Turkey
and Armenia will be open only after the full liberation of Azerbaijani
occupied territories."
Although the recently released protocols make no mention of a linkage
between the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties and the Karabakh
peace process, "there's no doubt that the Karabakh issue looms over
this reconciliation process," says Kiniklioglu.
"If there is no movement on Nagorno-Karabakh, it will be up to the
Turkish parliament to assess the situation and judge accordingly."
Observers believe the Turkish government is now counting on
international pressure to increase on Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach
some kind of agreement regarding the disputed territory. Although
the AKP has a majority in parliament, many observers believe that
it will be difficult to ratify the protocols without any movement on
the Nagorno-Karabakh front.
"Erdogan obviously feels that Turkey wants to see something on
Nagorno-Karabakh before they can take it to parliament. The problem is
[that the protocols are] in Turkey's interest, even if nothing happens
on Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey's overwhelming national interest is in
putting this Armenian problem behind it," says Hugh Pope, a Turkey
analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Over at Today's Zaman, the Brookings Institute's Omer Taspinar
also takes a look at last week's announcement, saying it might be
a bit to early to break out a bottle of "nice Caucasian champagne
to celebrate." The protocols being ratified by both the Turkish and
Armenian parliaments is a big "if," Taspinar says. Reminding readers
that this breakthrough in Turkish-Armenian relations started with
Turkish president Abdullah Gul going to Armenia for a World Cup
qualifying game between the two countries' national teams, Taspinar
writes:
The good news is that the so-called "soccer-diplomacy" is alive and
well. The not so good news is that we are still at halftime, and the
fanatic supporters of the two national teams can cancel the game or
disqualify their teams by throwing sharp knifes on the field....
....So, last week's announcement comes just in time to maintain
the facade of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. If no sharp knives
are thrown onto the field, soccer diplomacy will inch forward. It
may still be too early to speak of a genuine rapprochement between
Ankara and Yerevan. Yet, no one accuses the two parties of not
trying. Negotiations between stubborn neighbors are never easy. But
as Winston Churchill wisely said, "To jaw-jaw is always better than
to war-war."
So where is this Turkish-Armenian "roadmap" actually going to lead
to? The next few weeks will give a clearer indication of that. One
thing is clear: the protocols agreed upon by Ankara and Yerevan might
not refer to Nagorno-Karabakh, but the "roadmap" for Turkish-Armenian
reconciliation leads straight through the heart of that disputed
territory.
Yigal Schleifer
The Faster Times
http://thefastertimes.com/turkey/2009/09/07/ istanbul-calling-for-turkey-and-armenia-a-roadmaps -unclear-final-destination/
Sept 7 2009
Last week's announcement by Turkey and Armenia that they have agreed
on a set of protocols that will lead towards the normalization of
their relations and the opening of their borders was certainly welcome
news. A previous breakthrough in Turkish-Armenian reconciliation --
last April's vague declaration that the two countries had agreed on a
"roadmap" for restoring relations -- quickly fizzled out when Turkish
prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that there would be no
progress on the Armenian front until the "full liberation" of the Azeri
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by Armenian forces since 1993.
What's different this time around is the release of the detailed
protocols, which offer a clear path towards the reopening of the
Turkish-Armenian border and renewal of diplomatic ties between
Ankara and Yerevan. But has Turkey really changed its position on
the Nagorno-Karabakh issue? Will the Turkish parliament, which must
ratify the protocols for them to take effect (as does Armenia's),
support the move without any concrete action on the Nagorno-Karabakh
front? From an analysis piece I have up on the Eurasianet website:
The Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is a complicating factor for the
ratification of the protocols. Turkey is Azerbaijan's strongest ally,
and Ankara imposed its economic blockade on Armenia in 1993 to support
Baku's efforts to retain control over Karabakh. Currently, Armenian
forces control Karabakh, along with large areas of Azerbaijan proper
that surround the enclave.
The timing of the withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied
Azerbaijani lands is one of the primary sticking points in the Karabakh
peace process.
The announcement last April of the existence of a "roadmap" to renew
ties between Turkey and Armenia led to a strong backlash from Baku,
and to what seemed like a stepping back from the deal on Ankara's part.
During a May 14 address to the Azerbaijani parliament, Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared "that the border between Turkey
and Armenia will be open only after the full liberation of Azerbaijani
occupied territories."
Although the recently released protocols make no mention of a linkage
between the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties and the Karabakh
peace process, "there's no doubt that the Karabakh issue looms over
this reconciliation process," says Kiniklioglu.
"If there is no movement on Nagorno-Karabakh, it will be up to the
Turkish parliament to assess the situation and judge accordingly."
Observers believe the Turkish government is now counting on
international pressure to increase on Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach
some kind of agreement regarding the disputed territory. Although
the AKP has a majority in parliament, many observers believe that
it will be difficult to ratify the protocols without any movement on
the Nagorno-Karabakh front.
"Erdogan obviously feels that Turkey wants to see something on
Nagorno-Karabakh before they can take it to parliament. The problem is
[that the protocols are] in Turkey's interest, even if nothing happens
on Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey's overwhelming national interest is in
putting this Armenian problem behind it," says Hugh Pope, a Turkey
analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Over at Today's Zaman, the Brookings Institute's Omer Taspinar
also takes a look at last week's announcement, saying it might be
a bit to early to break out a bottle of "nice Caucasian champagne
to celebrate." The protocols being ratified by both the Turkish and
Armenian parliaments is a big "if," Taspinar says. Reminding readers
that this breakthrough in Turkish-Armenian relations started with
Turkish president Abdullah Gul going to Armenia for a World Cup
qualifying game between the two countries' national teams, Taspinar
writes:
The good news is that the so-called "soccer-diplomacy" is alive and
well. The not so good news is that we are still at halftime, and the
fanatic supporters of the two national teams can cancel the game or
disqualify their teams by throwing sharp knifes on the field....
....So, last week's announcement comes just in time to maintain
the facade of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. If no sharp knives
are thrown onto the field, soccer diplomacy will inch forward. It
may still be too early to speak of a genuine rapprochement between
Ankara and Yerevan. Yet, no one accuses the two parties of not
trying. Negotiations between stubborn neighbors are never easy. But
as Winston Churchill wisely said, "To jaw-jaw is always better than
to war-war."
So where is this Turkish-Armenian "roadmap" actually going to lead
to? The next few weeks will give a clearer indication of that. One
thing is clear: the protocols agreed upon by Ankara and Yerevan might
not refer to Nagorno-Karabakh, but the "roadmap" for Turkish-Armenian
reconciliation leads straight through the heart of that disputed
territory.