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ON THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF AZERBAIJAN
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
September 7, 2009 Monday
Russia
Azerbaijan at last wishes to establish its military-political
priorities. It is supposed to be discussed and adopted by the
military doctrine of Azerbaijan at the autumn session by the
country's parliament (it will begin work on October, 1st, 2009). The
document is adopted for the first time. Paramount attention is paid
in Azerbaijan to the plans dealing with maintenance of military
security, though. After all there are problems with Karabakh - the
territories which belonged to Azerbaijan before the disintegration
of the USSR. The problem of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is being
solved by Baku peacefully. However, it is not excluded that it may
use force. About two billion dollars will be allocated for the needs
of defense this year in the country's budget. This is serious money,
and it is already clear that Azerbaijan will be ready for military
action in the near future despite these peaceful actions. It already
holds large-scale military exercises and buys modern military materiel
and arms.
Many political scientists in the country see Armenia, the ally of
Russia in the CSTO as an enemy of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan members of
parliament, probably, will be ready to enter Armenia in the list
of countries potentially threatening its security in the military
doctrine. It is not excluded, that Turkmenistan which is now ready
today to protect their oil fields and gas deposits on the Caspian Sea
(the Omar, Osmanli Turk and Serdar) may also be included.
That was recently revealed when the president of Turkmenistan
announced plans to set up a navy base on the Caspian Sea to protect
the sea borders of the republic. Ashkhabad does not conceal the fact
that such actions are caused by their concern with the problems of
hydrocarbon deposit ownership. "On my instructions special work to
reinforce our sea borders and protect the Caspian sea coast is now
carried out in order to secure it from encroachment", explained
Gurbanbuly Berdymukhamedov, at a session of the State Council on
security. He said an effective system of radar and optical control
would be installed. Besides, as the Turkmen leader noted, the border
service of the republic is already purchasing modern high-speed patrol
boats, as well as two modern missile boats, for the country's Navy.
Speaking about Baku's intentions to develop disputed hydrocarbon
deposits, the Turkmen president said that "such practice of
unilateral actions on the Caspian sea, such as working on the
sites where there are no arrangements by the interested states" was
unacceptable for Turkmenia. Berdymukhamedov issued orders to inform
international companies doing work at disputable sites, that in case
the International arbitration sides with Ashkhabad, Turkmenistan will
demand indemnification. Ashkhabad may proceed to use military force
to protect the oil and gas deposits it considers its own. That will
make it necessary for Baku to write this scenario into their defense
doctrine. For now official Baku supports demilitarization of the sea
and removal of military infrastructure from its coast and islands.
In these conditions Russia gets geopolitical advantages. What are they?
First, the Nabucco plan to create alternative routes of hydrocarbon
transportation is doomed in the situation of an apparent military
conflict on the Caspian sea.
Second, the RF receives additional levers of pressure upon Ashkhabad
which wishes to diversify hydrocarbon streams going from the country.
Thirdly, instability on the Caspian sea freezes the launch of
operations at disputable deposits which under certain conditions are
included in the orbit of the RF economic interests.
Fourthly, Baku concentrating on military problems on the Caspian
sea will delay the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict
concerning Nagorno-Karabakh. After all it is obvious that oil and gas
exploration and development is more important for Baku than the costly
campaign to regain control of Karabakh. In these conditions the status
of the unrecognized Armenian autonomy may remain unchanged for a long
time. It may be for the benefit of Armenia and, probably, Russia.
But there are also negative aspects.
1. A full-scale conflict between Baku and Ashkhabad provides a
hypothetical possibility of the third countries getting involved in
the conflict. First of all, the NATO.
2. Naval operations on the Caspian sea, of course, increase the
probability of the conflict's expansion and export of instability
to the Caspian countries, including Russia, especially its Southern
Federal district.
In these conditions Russia's priority is to end the fighting. Both
Armenia and Azerbaijan are important to Moscow for both its
military-political interests in the Southern Caucasus, and the
preservation of stability in the country, as very large Armenian and
Azerbaijani diasporas (not less than 2 million persons) have been
spawned in Russia since disintegration of the USSR and, of course,
they influence both its foreign and internal policy.
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
September 7, 2009 Monday
Russia
Azerbaijan at last wishes to establish its military-political
priorities. It is supposed to be discussed and adopted by the
military doctrine of Azerbaijan at the autumn session by the
country's parliament (it will begin work on October, 1st, 2009). The
document is adopted for the first time. Paramount attention is paid
in Azerbaijan to the plans dealing with maintenance of military
security, though. After all there are problems with Karabakh - the
territories which belonged to Azerbaijan before the disintegration
of the USSR. The problem of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is being
solved by Baku peacefully. However, it is not excluded that it may
use force. About two billion dollars will be allocated for the needs
of defense this year in the country's budget. This is serious money,
and it is already clear that Azerbaijan will be ready for military
action in the near future despite these peaceful actions. It already
holds large-scale military exercises and buys modern military materiel
and arms.
Many political scientists in the country see Armenia, the ally of
Russia in the CSTO as an enemy of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan members of
parliament, probably, will be ready to enter Armenia in the list
of countries potentially threatening its security in the military
doctrine. It is not excluded, that Turkmenistan which is now ready
today to protect their oil fields and gas deposits on the Caspian Sea
(the Omar, Osmanli Turk and Serdar) may also be included.
That was recently revealed when the president of Turkmenistan
announced plans to set up a navy base on the Caspian Sea to protect
the sea borders of the republic. Ashkhabad does not conceal the fact
that such actions are caused by their concern with the problems of
hydrocarbon deposit ownership. "On my instructions special work to
reinforce our sea borders and protect the Caspian sea coast is now
carried out in order to secure it from encroachment", explained
Gurbanbuly Berdymukhamedov, at a session of the State Council on
security. He said an effective system of radar and optical control
would be installed. Besides, as the Turkmen leader noted, the border
service of the republic is already purchasing modern high-speed patrol
boats, as well as two modern missile boats, for the country's Navy.
Speaking about Baku's intentions to develop disputed hydrocarbon
deposits, the Turkmen president said that "such practice of
unilateral actions on the Caspian sea, such as working on the
sites where there are no arrangements by the interested states" was
unacceptable for Turkmenia. Berdymukhamedov issued orders to inform
international companies doing work at disputable sites, that in case
the International arbitration sides with Ashkhabad, Turkmenistan will
demand indemnification. Ashkhabad may proceed to use military force
to protect the oil and gas deposits it considers its own. That will
make it necessary for Baku to write this scenario into their defense
doctrine. For now official Baku supports demilitarization of the sea
and removal of military infrastructure from its coast and islands.
In these conditions Russia gets geopolitical advantages. What are they?
First, the Nabucco plan to create alternative routes of hydrocarbon
transportation is doomed in the situation of an apparent military
conflict on the Caspian sea.
Second, the RF receives additional levers of pressure upon Ashkhabad
which wishes to diversify hydrocarbon streams going from the country.
Thirdly, instability on the Caspian sea freezes the launch of
operations at disputable deposits which under certain conditions are
included in the orbit of the RF economic interests.
Fourthly, Baku concentrating on military problems on the Caspian
sea will delay the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict
concerning Nagorno-Karabakh. After all it is obvious that oil and gas
exploration and development is more important for Baku than the costly
campaign to regain control of Karabakh. In these conditions the status
of the unrecognized Armenian autonomy may remain unchanged for a long
time. It may be for the benefit of Armenia and, probably, Russia.
But there are also negative aspects.
1. A full-scale conflict between Baku and Ashkhabad provides a
hypothetical possibility of the third countries getting involved in
the conflict. First of all, the NATO.
2. Naval operations on the Caspian sea, of course, increase the
probability of the conflict's expansion and export of instability
to the Caspian countries, including Russia, especially its Southern
Federal district.
In these conditions Russia's priority is to end the fighting. Both
Armenia and Azerbaijan are important to Moscow for both its
military-political interests in the Southern Caucasus, and the
preservation of stability in the country, as very large Armenian and
Azerbaijani diasporas (not less than 2 million persons) have been
spawned in Russia since disintegration of the USSR and, of course,
they influence both its foreign and internal policy.