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ARMENIA AND TURKEY INCH CLOSER TO NORMALIZATION
Emil Danielyan
Jamestown Foundation
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cac he=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35458&tx_ttnew s%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=3bf0bbe931
Sept 8 2009
Armenia and Turkey, after an impasse lasting several months, have
made further significant progress in their dialogue welcomed and
facilitated by the international community. The governments of the two
neighboring states plan to sign by mid-October agreements envisaging
the establishment of diplomatic relations and the re-opening of their
border. However, whether these agreements will actually be implemented
is an open question. Many in Armenia fear that the Turkish government
will block or delay their mandatory parliamentary ratification, unless
there is a breakthrough in the protracted international efforts to
resolve the Karabakh issue.
The latest Turkish-Armenian understandings are clearly part of the
fence-mending "roadmap," which Ankara and Yerevan worked out under
Swiss mediation early this year. In April, both sides were expected to
normalize their bilateral ties, but faced with vehement protests from
Azerbaijan, Turkey's closest regional ally, Ankara reverted to its
long-standing linkage between Turkish-Armenian reconciliation and a
Karabakh settlement acceptable to Baku. Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan explicitly reaffirmed that precondition during his
visit to Azerbaijan in May. After an initial silence, the Armenian
leadership increasingly voiced its frustration with Ankara's stance
throughout the summer. On August 25, in an interview with the BBC,
President Serzh Sargsyan accused the Turks of lacking "any great
desire or aspiration to stick to these arrangements" (reached
with Armenia). The remarks came amid a fresh bout of confidential
Turkish-Armenian diplomatic contacts that appear to have been initiated
by the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and
the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu discussed ways of
kick-starting the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement in a telephone
conversation on August 30 (Hurriyet Daily News, August 31).
Late on August 31, the foreign ministers of Armenia, Turkey as
well as Switzerland issued a joint statement saying that Ankara and
Yerevan had agreed to sign, after six weeks of "internal political
consultations," two protocols on the establishment of diplomatic
relations and the development of broader bilateral ties. It escaped
the attention of many that the six-week period will end on the eve a
return soccer match between Armenia and Turkey in the Turkish city of
Bursa on October 14. Turkish President Abdullah Gul invited Sargsyan
to the World Cup qualifier after paying a historic visit to Yerevan
in September 2008 to watch the first Turkey-Armenia match with his
Armenian counterpart. The visit greatly contributed to subsequent
progress in Turkish-Armenian talks. Sargsyan made clear in July and
August that he will travel to Turkey only if Ankara takes "real steps"
to complete the normalization process. He is now widely expected to
accept of Gul's invitation. Analysts believe that the Turkish-Armenian
protocols may well be signed during the trip.
One of those draft protocols, posted on the Armenian foreign ministry's
website (www.armeniaforeignministry.am), commits Turkey to re-opening
the 330-kilometer border with Armenia, (which it had closed in 1993 out
of solidarity with Azerbaijan) within two months of its signing. The
document also envisages that both governments will set up a joint
commission tasked with tackling a wide range of issues of mutual
interest. One of its seven sub-commissions is to conduct an "impartial
scientific examination of the historical records and archives to define
existing problems and formulate recommendations." More specifically,
it will look into the 1915 massacres of more than one million Armenians
in the Ottoman Empire.
The idea of conducting such a study was first floated by Erdogan in
2005 and effectively rejected by the then Armenian President Robert
Kocharian. Sargsyan is understood to have accepted it in return for
a Turkish pledge to stop linking improved relations with Armenia to
Karabakh. Sargsyan and his political allies have emphasized that the
newly publicized agreements with Turkey make no reference to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute. The Armenian president told his top
diplomats on September 1 that this allows the country to make peace
with its larger neighbor and historical enemy in a "dignified manner"
(Statement by the Armenian presidential press service, September 1).
However, Sargsyan's political opponents, notably the nationalist
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF, also known as the Dashnak
Party), denounced the deal as a sell-out, saying that Ankara has not
dropped any of its preconditions, including a halt to the long-standing
Armenian campaign for international recognition of the 1915 massacres
as genocide. The ARF, which quit Sargsyan's governing coalition
in April in protest over his Turkish policy, was also furious with
another protocol provision that certifies "the mutual recognition
of the existing border between the two countries" (Yerkir-Media TV,
September 1-3).
Significantly, the country's largest opposition force, the Armenian
National Congress (HAK) of former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, gave
a largely positive assessment of the Turkish-Armenian agreements in
a statement issued on September 1. The HAK had previously harshly
criticized Sargsyan's conciliatory line on Turkey, saying that it
has yielded no tangible benefits.
Nonetheless, it remained adamant in condemning the planned formation
of the Turkish-Armenian panel of historians. The Ter-Petrosian-led
alliance regards it as a Turkish ploy designed to stop more countries
from recognizing what many international historians consider to be
one of the first genocides of the twentieth century.
Despite facing domestic criticism, Sargsyan is unlikely to encounter
serious obstacles to pushing the protocols through Armenia's
parliament, which is dominated by his loyalists. Their speedy
ratification by the Turkish parliament promises to be far more
problematic. Politicians and pundits in Yerevan anticipate that
Erdogan's government, which also enjoys a comfortable parliament
majority, could stall the ratification process if Armenia and
Azerbaijan fail to achieve a breakthrough in their dialogue in the
coming months.
Contradictory statements made by Davutoglu only reinforced this
view. The Turkish foreign minister told NTV television on September
1 that the Turkish-Armenian border could be re-opened "around New
Year." Nevertheless, in an earlier television interview cited by AFP
news agency, he said the Turkish government will not take any steps
that "would hurt the interests of Azerbaijan."
"Without meaningful progress in the solution of the Karabakh problem,
the chances for the two protocols to normalize relations between
Ankara and Yerevan to pass through the Turkish Parliament are dim,"
Barcin Yinanc, the managing editor of the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet
Daily News, wrote in a September 2 commentary. Yinanc suggested that
Ankara based its Armenia-related moves on the expectation that Baku
and Yerevan will make "some kind of a deal" soon.
Sargsyan and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev are due to hold
fresh and potentially decisive talks in early October. Their failure
to iron out their remaining differences over the basic principles of
a Karabakh settlement proposed by the American, French and Russian
mediators could still thwart Turkish-Armenian normalization.
Emil Danielyan
Jamestown Foundation
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cac he=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=35458&tx_ttnew s%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=3bf0bbe931
Sept 8 2009
Armenia and Turkey, after an impasse lasting several months, have
made further significant progress in their dialogue welcomed and
facilitated by the international community. The governments of the two
neighboring states plan to sign by mid-October agreements envisaging
the establishment of diplomatic relations and the re-opening of their
border. However, whether these agreements will actually be implemented
is an open question. Many in Armenia fear that the Turkish government
will block or delay their mandatory parliamentary ratification, unless
there is a breakthrough in the protracted international efforts to
resolve the Karabakh issue.
The latest Turkish-Armenian understandings are clearly part of the
fence-mending "roadmap," which Ankara and Yerevan worked out under
Swiss mediation early this year. In April, both sides were expected to
normalize their bilateral ties, but faced with vehement protests from
Azerbaijan, Turkey's closest regional ally, Ankara reverted to its
long-standing linkage between Turkish-Armenian reconciliation and a
Karabakh settlement acceptable to Baku. Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan explicitly reaffirmed that precondition during his
visit to Azerbaijan in May. After an initial silence, the Armenian
leadership increasingly voiced its frustration with Ankara's stance
throughout the summer. On August 25, in an interview with the BBC,
President Serzh Sargsyan accused the Turks of lacking "any great
desire or aspiration to stick to these arrangements" (reached
with Armenia). The remarks came amid a fresh bout of confidential
Turkish-Armenian diplomatic contacts that appear to have been initiated
by the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and
the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu discussed ways of
kick-starting the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement in a telephone
conversation on August 30 (Hurriyet Daily News, August 31).
Late on August 31, the foreign ministers of Armenia, Turkey as
well as Switzerland issued a joint statement saying that Ankara and
Yerevan had agreed to sign, after six weeks of "internal political
consultations," two protocols on the establishment of diplomatic
relations and the development of broader bilateral ties. It escaped
the attention of many that the six-week period will end on the eve a
return soccer match between Armenia and Turkey in the Turkish city of
Bursa on October 14. Turkish President Abdullah Gul invited Sargsyan
to the World Cup qualifier after paying a historic visit to Yerevan
in September 2008 to watch the first Turkey-Armenia match with his
Armenian counterpart. The visit greatly contributed to subsequent
progress in Turkish-Armenian talks. Sargsyan made clear in July and
August that he will travel to Turkey only if Ankara takes "real steps"
to complete the normalization process. He is now widely expected to
accept of Gul's invitation. Analysts believe that the Turkish-Armenian
protocols may well be signed during the trip.
One of those draft protocols, posted on the Armenian foreign ministry's
website (www.armeniaforeignministry.am), commits Turkey to re-opening
the 330-kilometer border with Armenia, (which it had closed in 1993 out
of solidarity with Azerbaijan) within two months of its signing. The
document also envisages that both governments will set up a joint
commission tasked with tackling a wide range of issues of mutual
interest. One of its seven sub-commissions is to conduct an "impartial
scientific examination of the historical records and archives to define
existing problems and formulate recommendations." More specifically,
it will look into the 1915 massacres of more than one million Armenians
in the Ottoman Empire.
The idea of conducting such a study was first floated by Erdogan in
2005 and effectively rejected by the then Armenian President Robert
Kocharian. Sargsyan is understood to have accepted it in return for
a Turkish pledge to stop linking improved relations with Armenia to
Karabakh. Sargsyan and his political allies have emphasized that the
newly publicized agreements with Turkey make no reference to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute. The Armenian president told his top
diplomats on September 1 that this allows the country to make peace
with its larger neighbor and historical enemy in a "dignified manner"
(Statement by the Armenian presidential press service, September 1).
However, Sargsyan's political opponents, notably the nationalist
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF, also known as the Dashnak
Party), denounced the deal as a sell-out, saying that Ankara has not
dropped any of its preconditions, including a halt to the long-standing
Armenian campaign for international recognition of the 1915 massacres
as genocide. The ARF, which quit Sargsyan's governing coalition
in April in protest over his Turkish policy, was also furious with
another protocol provision that certifies "the mutual recognition
of the existing border between the two countries" (Yerkir-Media TV,
September 1-3).
Significantly, the country's largest opposition force, the Armenian
National Congress (HAK) of former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, gave
a largely positive assessment of the Turkish-Armenian agreements in
a statement issued on September 1. The HAK had previously harshly
criticized Sargsyan's conciliatory line on Turkey, saying that it
has yielded no tangible benefits.
Nonetheless, it remained adamant in condemning the planned formation
of the Turkish-Armenian panel of historians. The Ter-Petrosian-led
alliance regards it as a Turkish ploy designed to stop more countries
from recognizing what many international historians consider to be
one of the first genocides of the twentieth century.
Despite facing domestic criticism, Sargsyan is unlikely to encounter
serious obstacles to pushing the protocols through Armenia's
parliament, which is dominated by his loyalists. Their speedy
ratification by the Turkish parliament promises to be far more
problematic. Politicians and pundits in Yerevan anticipate that
Erdogan's government, which also enjoys a comfortable parliament
majority, could stall the ratification process if Armenia and
Azerbaijan fail to achieve a breakthrough in their dialogue in the
coming months.
Contradictory statements made by Davutoglu only reinforced this
view. The Turkish foreign minister told NTV television on September
1 that the Turkish-Armenian border could be re-opened "around New
Year." Nevertheless, in an earlier television interview cited by AFP
news agency, he said the Turkish government will not take any steps
that "would hurt the interests of Azerbaijan."
"Without meaningful progress in the solution of the Karabakh problem,
the chances for the two protocols to normalize relations between
Ankara and Yerevan to pass through the Turkish Parliament are dim,"
Barcin Yinanc, the managing editor of the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet
Daily News, wrote in a September 2 commentary. Yinanc suggested that
Ankara based its Armenia-related moves on the expectation that Baku
and Yerevan will make "some kind of a deal" soon.
Sargsyan and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev are due to hold
fresh and potentially decisive talks in early October. Their failure
to iron out their remaining differences over the basic principles of
a Karabakh settlement proposed by the American, French and Russian
mediators could still thwart Turkish-Armenian normalization.