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Ural, Russia: Potential Instability, Autonomy and Independence

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  • Ural, Russia: Potential Instability, Autonomy and Independence

    Ural, Russia: Potential Instability, Autonomy and Independence
    By Antero Leitzinger

    Global Politician, NY
    March 1 2005

    3/2/2005
    Summary: The region of Idel-Ural, presently consisting of three
    Finno-Ugric republics (Mari, Mordovia and Udmurtia) and three
    Turko-Tatar republics (Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Chuvassistan)
    within the Russian Federation, forms a historically prosperous region
    with large natural resources. It used to be a site of glorious Tatar
    civilizations, and an important crossroads of both European and
    Oriental trade routes. Russia colonised this region in the 1500s, but
    since the fall of the USSR, several Idel-Ural republics have been
    looking for increasing autonomy from Moscow. Considering the region's
    wealth that is above the Russian average, and oil resources, the
    region will grow in importance in the near future. Vladimir Putin's
    present policy of abolishing federalism and democracy in present
    Russia, and turning it closer to imperialism and centralism, may
    seriously hurt the region's prospects and stability. Destabilisation
    of the Idel-Ural region in response to Putin's centralism would be
    such a fatal strike to the legitimacy of Russia that it can be
    compared to the fall of the Soviet Union.




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    The region between the Volga (in Tatar: Idel) river and the Ural
    mountains was not always an easternmost periphery of Europe. A
    thousand years ago, it was a prosperous centre of Eurasian cultures,
    extending trade links to Scandinavia as well as Persia. The city of
    Bolgar could rival with any western European capital, and its
    splendour amazed Arab travellers like Ibn Fadlan, who was one of the
    first Muslim missionaries at the Bolgar court in 922. Bolgar had been
    founded by the descendants of the notorious Huns, who converted into
    Islam and balanced between the declining Khazar state and the
    ascending Viking federation that ultimately became Russia. Some of
    the Bolgars migrated into the Balkans, mixed with Slavs and became
    Bulgarians. Others turned into the Caucasus and are today known as
    the Balkars. In 1236, the city of Bolgar was sacked by Mongolian
    invaders, who established the Golden Horde as a part of their vast
    empire. Later on, the Golden Horde itself disintegrated into several
    khanates, one of which was centered in Kazan, the successor of Bolgar
    until its conquest by Russia in 1552.

    Remnants of the old Huns and Bolgars may be seen in the Chuvash, a
    Turkic nation living at the west bank of the Volga, which has
    retained an archaic language and many pagan habits. The mixture of
    the Mongolian nobility and warriors with Bolgars and other local
    (Fenno-Ugric) peoples produced the Tatar nation. Because of their bad
    reputation in Russia (no history books fail to demonize the "Tatar
    yoke"), some Tatars would still prefer to call themselves Bolgars. On
    the other hand, neighbouring Fenno-Ugric peoples also adopted many
    Turkic and Islamic features from the Tatars and felt an affinity with
    them despite of different classification by scholars. Thus the Middle
    Volga region remained mainly Islamic and non-Russian, and whenever
    there was a major revolt against Russian colonial rule, the Tatars
    were joined by the Chuvash, Bashkir, Cheremish (Mari), Mordva and
    other nations.

    In 1917, these nations of the Volga-Ural region founded a common
    state called Idel-Ural with 14-15 million inhabitants, of whom less
    than a third part were ethnic Russians. They aspired for autonomy,
    but were suppressed by the Bolsheviks next year. Soviet Russia
    applied now the well-known strategy of "divide and rule": instead of
    a single entity, stretching all the way to the Caspian Sea and
    bordering to Turkestan, as would have been natural and justified, the
    region was split into half a dozen different autonomous republics.

    The first Soviet Russian creation to replace Idel-Ural, today's
    Bashkortostan, was established in 1919, but contained more Tatars
    than Bashkirs. Actually, most of the Bashkirs did not really know,
    what distinguished them from the Tatars in the first place. Even the
    most famous Bashkir nationalist leader, Zeki Validi Togan, was
    himself soon disillusioned, escaped abroad and became an advocate of
    Turkic unity. In 1920, the Chuvash nation - or rather, less than half
    of it - was "rewarded" with its very own lilliput autonomy. The
    Tatars were left with a rump-Tatarstan around Kazan, but only a
    quarter of all Tatars lived within its borders, while almost half of
    the population was Russian! In the 1930s, the process was finalized
    for to the Fenno-Ugric people: a quarter of the Mordva nation was
    united into a titular republic, where most of the population speaks
    Russian, and less than half of the Cheremish nation got their own
    among equal many Russians. It became clear, that the nationalist
    division of Idel-Ural only served the ideas of administrative
    centralization and cultural russification of the whole region.

    The president of Idel-Ural, Sadri Maksudi Arsal, escaped to Finland
    in 1918. He was well received by the Finnish foreign minister, who
    remembered his valiant defences for the national self-determination
    and constitutional rights of Finland in the Russian Duma. The
    president in exile also met officials from Estonia before continuing
    in 1919 to Sweden, Germany and France, in a quest for western
    support.

    When the national minorities and the autonomous republics of the
    Russian federation were allowed again to search for their identity
    and political interests, the idea of a common Idel-Ural federation
    was reborn. There are, however, many obstacles on the way ahead:

    Local ("republican") leaders like Mintimer Shaimiyev, president of
    Tatarstan, are the same old communists nominated by the Soviet
    leadership before any reforms of the society were initiated, and it
    still is in their personal and family interests to continue the
    administrative division and extend their terms of office, which has
    enabled them to privatize the natural wealth (oil, gas, etc.), and to
    keep all power concentrated in their own hands. It is unlikely, that
    they would ever cede power democratically. The situation reminds us
    somewhat of that of pre-1860s Italy and Germany with their numerous
    principalities;

    The federal authorities in Moscow ("Centre") will continue to divide
    and rule. Although Vladimir Putin as president of Russia has issued a
    decree about the formation of larger administrative units, in the
    19th century fashion of General Gouvernements, he will not proceed to
    break any loyal "republican" leaders, and since the general governors
    will be nominated instead of elected, there is not even a chance of
    democratical representation at that level.

    Popular feelings - specially among the ethnic Russian populations -
    can easily be manipulated by disinformation and provocations. The
    Tatars can be labelled "Turkic nationalists" or "Islamic extremists"
    to scare off Fenno-Ugric sympathisants. Russian culture, academic
    research and impressions among foreigners are full of Orthodox
    Christian and Soviet myths, that serve well if needed. The Arabs, for
    example, have never learned or cared about the fate of their
    co-religionists, because they have been fixed to other issues and
    tend to identify Tatars with the conquerors of Baghdad in 1258. The
    Armenians, who have strong lobbies in the USA and France, used to
    call their neighbouring enemies, Azerbaijani Turks, as Tatars.
    European historiography demonized both the Huns and the "Tartars",
    referring to the Greek underworld, Tartaros.

    The Turkic and Fenno-Ugric nationalities themselves may not have too
    many prejudices and stereotypes of each other, and there is not a
    general animosity against Russians as individual people, but there is
    a terrifying lack of healthy self-respect. After generations of
    oppression, ridicule and deep hate (Russians put the blame of all
    their problems on the "Tatar yoke"), Tatars and the other Idel-Ural
    nations suffer from a collective inferiority complex, feeling all the
    time the need to explain and excuse for their very existence. The
    development of an influential, united Idel-Ural movement, however,
    can only be secured if nobody feels his identity threatened.

    Even if neither the domestic elite nor the Kremlin, and neither
    external provocations nor internal confusions would weaken the idea
    of Idel-Ural, there would necessarily remain certain conflicts of
    interests. The main problem is, that only a part of the people in
    question would benefit from geographical solutions, home rule or
    independence. Residents of Moscow or other parts of Russia would be
    cut out and left to suffer possibly increasing discrimination and
    pogroms. This happened to the Jews who did not emigrate from Russia,
    and it is happening to the Chechens and other Caucasians who are
    feeling the consequences of secession.

    For the reasons listed above, Idel-Ural is likely to remain more an
    Ideal Ural, a permanent vision of what could have been, or a utopy to
    be reached in a far-away better future. Italy and Germany could not
    have united by 1871, if foreign pressure would have overweighted the
    pan-Italian and pan-German movements. Greece, Armenia, and Israel
    could hardly have become what they are now, if there would have been
    no massive immigration caused by foreign interventions and
    accompanied by massacres. The birth process of nations is extremely
    painful, particularly in politically hostile environments. Both
    Idel-Ural and a federative North Caucasus succumbed in 1918 to
    Russian intervention rather than to any domestic division.
    Switzerland was not born as a confederation suddenly and peacefully.

    The peoples of Idel-Ural need first to develop a deep sense of
    solidarity and traditions of mutual assistance, but also the outside
    world could assist such a positive trend by supporting the idea and
    by giving a voice for those who do not seek salvation in the mercy of
    the Kremlin or in the petty pseudo-patriotism of former party bosses
    turned overnight to statesmen and big businessmen at the costs of
    their peoples.

    * Antero Leitzinger, a leading expert of Tatar nations. He edited a
    book called "Mishäärit" on Finnish Tatars, the oldest Islamic
    community in the country.

    Antero Leitzinger is a political historian and a researcher for the
    Finnish Directorate of Immigration. He wrote several books on Turkey,
    the Middle East and the Caucasus.

    --Boundary_(ID_cep6KOvhf6BPudeuEFdD+Q)--
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