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  • Analysis: All change in Belarus, Moldova?

    Washington Times/United Press Int'l
    March 2 2005

    Analysis: All change in Belarus, Moldova?


    By Gareth Harding
    Chief European Correspondent


    Brussels, Belgium, Mar. 2 (UPI) -- After the rose revolution in
    Georgia and the orange revolution in Ukraine, could the former Soviet
    republics of Moldova and Belarus be the next states to swap
    authoritarian rule for democracy?

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    European and American leaders are increasingly optimistic that the
    non-violent uprisings in Tbilisi and Kiev will create a snowball
    effect similar to that which rumbled through the former communist
    countries of central and eastern Europe in 1989.

    "The democratic revolutions that swept this region over 15 years ago
    are now reaching Georgia and Ukraine," U.S. President George W. Bush
    told Slovaks in central Bratislava last week. "In 10 days, Moldova
    has the opportunity to place its democratic credentials beyond doubt
    as its people head to the polls. And inevitably, the people of
    Belarus will someday proudly belong to the country of democracies."

    Viktor Yushchenko, the newly elected Ukrainian president who
    spearheaded protests against rigged elections in November, also
    believes freedom is on the march in eastern Europe. "The orange
    revolution set a very good example for many citizens because it
    showed them the way to protect their rights," he told United Press
    International last month. "This example is relevant to any country
    where rights are not respected."

    The political map of Europe has been redrawn since the Berlin Wall
    came crashing down in November 1989, spreading democracy eastwards
    like an ink-blot. Eight former communist states -- the Czech
    Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Slovenia and
    Slovakia -- became members of the EU and NATO last year, and Bulgaria
    and Rumania are on course to join the union in 2007. Democracy has
    also begun to take root in Albania and the war-torn states of the
    former Yugoslavia, with Croatia and Macedonia likely to join the EU
    in the next three to five years.

    But it was the revolutions in Georgia -- where Eduard Shevardnadze
    was ousted from power in 2003 -- and Ukraine, where massive street
    protests forced a re-run of fraudulent elections in November, that
    have provided the greatest inspiration to activists in the former
    Soviet bloc.

    "No one can say now that democracy is not possible near Russia or
    that post-Soviet countries can't become properly functioning
    democracies," says Pavol Demes, who has advised opposition groups in
    Ukraine and Serbia and now heads the German Marshall Fund's
    Bratislava office. "There are now five concrete examples of Soviet
    republics freeing themselves from communism and then authoritarianism
    (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Georgia and Ukraine) that the people of
    Belarus and Moldova can dream about, learn lessons from and act on."

    Voters in Moldova, a desperately poor country of 4.2 million people
    nestled between Romania and Ukraine, get their chance to choose
    between Western-style liberal democracy and Russian-style
    authoritarianism Sunday. Communist President Vladimir Voronin, who
    has ruled the country since 2001 and traditionally been close to the
    Kremlin, now favors tighter links with Europe. But his conversion to
    the EU cause may have come too late for impatient voters fed up with
    endemic corruption and the continent's lowest living standards.
    "There is a communist dictatorship in our country and, consequently,
    there are conditions for a revolution," said Yuri Rosca, leader of
    the Christian Democratic People's Party. Emulating Yushchenko's
    tactics in Ukraine, the opposition has swathed itself in orange and
    booked the central square of the capital, Chisinau, for a fortnight
    in anticipation of street protests.

    The situation in Belarus, Europe's last dictatorship, is less
    promising for freedom fighters. A former Soviet republic of 10
    million people that shares borders with three EU states, Belarus has
    been ruled with an iron fist by Communist President Alexander
    Lukashenko since 1994. Blatant vote-rigging in November elections --
    opposition parties failed to win a single seat in parliament -- was
    slammed by international observers and earned Belarus the dubious
    honor of being the only European country included on U.S. Secretary
    of State Condoleezza Rice's "outposts of tyranny" list in January.

    But many campaigners and analysts are confident that change will come
    to the communist state sooner rather than later. "If it can happen in
    Georgia and Ukraine, then it can happen in Belarus," says Irina
    Krasovskaya, president of We Remember Foundation. Oxford professor
    and east European expert Timothy Garton Ash told UPI: "It would be
    very foolish of us to imagine that change won't come in countries
    like Moldova, Belarus and perhaps Armenia in the next three to five
    years."

    Others, however, are less optimistic. Belarus has high growth rates,
    low unemployment, a strong welfare state and little social unrest.
    Despite Western criticism, Lukashenko has higher approval ratings
    than many democratically elected leaders -- even independent
    observers credited him with almost half the vote in last year's
    elections.

    "The circumstances in Belarus and Moldova are very different from the
    other countries that have become democracies," says Demes. "Europe
    and America are only now discovering these two states."

    The EU has imposed mild sanctions on Belarus but has done little to
    actively support regime change in the country. The U.S.
    administration, on the other hand, adopted the Belarus Democracy Act
    last year, which not only slaps sanctions on the communist
    government, but also supports non-governmental organizations fighting
    for freedom, democracy and an independent media.

    "We stand by the people trying to bring forward democratic reform,
    but you cannot impose it from the outside," said one senior U.S.
    official. "What we can do is help with media reform and work with
    political parties, so that instead of dictators in power you show
    people how to build up parties with a grass-roots base."

    Last week, Bush made true on his inauguration speech pledge to
    support those struggling against tyranny when he met with 21
    "champions of freedom" from central and eastern Europe in Bratislava.
    "He told us he deeply cares about our cause and will do his best to
    help in the coming years," said Demes, one of the 21 freedom fighters
    chosen to meet the president. "All of us came away from the meeting
    feeling very encouraged."
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