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Armenian-Turkish Protocols vs. Nagorno-Karabakh: weekly review

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  • Armenian-Turkish Protocols vs. Nagorno-Karabakh: weekly review

    news.am, Armenia
    Nov 1 2009


    Armenian-Turkish Protocols vs. Nagorno-Karabakh: weekly review

    13:12 / 10/31/2009
    Domestic policy

    The main political event this week has been the 10th anniversary of
    the most appalling terrorist act in the history of independent
    Armenia. On October 27, 1999, a group of terrorists burst into the
    assembly hall of the RA Parliament and, in the presence of numerous
    journalists, fired point-blank at Speaker of the RA National Assembly
    Karen Demirchyan, Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan and six other
    political figures. Thus the terrorists beheaded the Unity bloc, which
    had won the elections just a few months before, as well as the RA
    Parliament and Government. Within a few moments the then President of
    Armenia Robert Kocharyan became absolute ruler over the country. Ten
    years have passed, but the `October 27 factor' still plays an
    important role in Armenia's domestic political life. Although the
    terrorists were sentenced to life imprisonment, and the authorities
    are sure that the crime was thoroughly investigated, the Opposition
    has been insisting that the terrorist act had been masterminded.
    During last year's presidential campaign, the political opponents were
    exploiting the `October 27 factor.' In particular, Armenia's first
    President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who resumed his political activities,
    publicly laid the responsibility on the authorities. Back in October
    1999, he was strongly against the army's interference in political
    affairs thereby actually supporting Robert Kocharyan, who found
    himself in an extremely critical situation. At present, however, on
    the eve of the 10th anniversary of the tragedy, the Armenian National
    Congress led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan made the most strongly worded
    statement over this period, actually charging Robert Kocharyan with
    direct complicity in that crime. The ANC also placed great
    responsibility on Serzh Sargsyan, who was then Head of the RA special
    services. Commemorations have taken place in memory of the victims at
    their graves and at the monument within the precincts of the RA
    Parliament. Attending the commemorations were both the Armenian
    top-officials and the Opposition leaders, including the victims'
    relatives: Stepan Demirchyan, son of Karen Demirchyan and Chairman of
    the People's Party of Armenia, and Aram Sargsyan, brother of Vazgen
    Sargsyan and Chairman of the Political Council of the Republic Party.

    The trial of Editor-in-Chief of the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper Nikol
    Pahshinyan continued this week. He is charged with having organized
    riots during last year's post-election processes and with having
    offered resistance to a policeman on October 23, 2007. Over 40
    witnesses in the case are testifying in court. According to the `fine'
    tradition of all the trial of Opposition members over the last year
    and a half, the witnesses for the prosecution are giving contradictory
    testimonies, which often run counter to elementary logic. For example,
    one standing on the opposite side of the street in the dark could see
    Pashinyan striking the policeman with his leg. Hundreds of Opposition
    members regularly gather in front of the Shengavit minor court. They
    have regular clashes with policemen, which, on the one hand, are the
    result of the demonstrators' strongly worded anti-government
    statements and banners with similar slogans, and, on the other hand,
    of some policemen's aggressive behavior, which became `an allergen'
    for participants in mass actions long ago.

    Late this week the ANC sprung a surprise by nominating Nikol Pashinyan
    at the by-elections to the RA Parliament in Election District #10 in
    Yerevan. According to the law, Pashinyan can run for Parliament if no
    court verdict has been returned on him and come into force. At
    present, the authorities are facing a dilemma: either speeding up the
    trial or witnessing inevitable intensification of the Opposition's
    activities as a result of the forces rallying round Pashinyan. The
    first is rather problematic with more than 40 witnesses involved in
    the case. In the second case, signs of consolidation can already be
    observed: on Friday evening the Republic Party, which forms part of
    the ANC, reported that Suren Surenyan, Political Council member, has
    refused to accept his nomination.

    The Prosperous Armenia Party led by the oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan can
    fulfill its election pledges provided the absolute majority of the
    population supports it, stated Khachik Galstyan, Spokesman for Gagik
    Tsarukyan. According to him, the party's nominee received over 23% of
    votes at the municipal elections. `If the present Mayor takes the
    wrong course in the city's development, the Prosperous Armenia Party
    cannot bear maximal responsibility. The same situation was after the
    parliamentary elections: although the Prosperous Armenia Party is the
    second largest political force, it received only 15% of votes. So this
    is its share of responsibility for the implemented programs,' Galstyan
    said. Responding to a question as to why the party does not secede
    from the ruling coalition, Galstyan said that being coalition member
    enhances the party's chances to accomplish the tasks. He also pointed
    out that the Armenian political forces will intensify their activities
    next year to start preparing for the 2012 parliamentary elections. New
    formats and political poles can be expected to form then.

    Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and region

    The `downward tendency' in the process of ratification of the
    Armenian-Turkish Protocols is getting stronger. Both the sides seem to
    be delaying the ratification after a rather active dialogue that ended
    in the signing of protocols. We have to understand the reasons for
    some delay in the reopening of the Armenian-Turkish border and
    establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations, which was to take
    place within two months after the protocols were signed.

    After the protocols were submitted to the Grand National Assembly of
    Turkey on October 21 they were `held up' at one of the committees to
    be resubmitted to the Presidium of the Turkish Parliament. The
    Presidium is to submit the protocols to the Turkish Parliament for
    ratification. The situation is no better in Armenia. `Relevant
    agencies' are discussing the protocols now. Thereafter they will be
    submitted to the RA Constitutional Court, which is to confirm their
    constitutionality. After that the RA National Assembly will consider
    the issue of ratifying them. It is noteworthy that most local and
    international experts are of the unanimous opinion that both the
    Parliaments will successfully ratify the protocols.

    In this context one can conclude that the reason for the
    Armenia-Turkey normalization process is not only the intensifying
    geopolitical changes in the region, which has never been denied, but
    also the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Despite the repeated
    statements that the two processes are not immediately linked, the
    `lower speed' at the `final stretch' suggests the following
    conclusion: the Armenia-Turkey normalization process has reached the
    highest extent possible with no fundamental changes in the
    Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

    Further warlike statements have been heard from Baku this week. The
    Armenian side gave adequate responses. International mediators and key
    geopolitical players got Armenia to show ` directly or indirectly '
    its readiness to maximum possible concessions thereby stalemating
    themselves. While the Armenian authorities are consistently preparing
    the public for painful concessions, their Azeri counterparts have got
    entangled in their own web of lies and deception, the one they have
    been weaving for many years. As a result, everybody sees the Azeri
    mass media, controlled by President Ilham Aliyev's administration,
    pursuing contradictory information policy thereby throwing the
    confused society into even greater confusion. Now they let bits of
    information on the necessity to agree to the return of five `occupied'
    regions now they howl about the `Dashnak-Communist yoke' the Turkish
    army helped Azerbaijan to throw off, and so on. The latest example is
    the `funereal' reports by the Baku TV channels about `the occupation
    of the strategically important Zangelan region by Armenian invaders.'
    It is no problem that the Azeri TV channels could hardly count 16 or
    17 years from October 29, 1993. But the question is: how well does the
    biased interpretation of the reasons for Armenian troops' entry to the
    region fit the preparation of the public for a peaceful settlement? We
    could hear once more that, during the `occupation', 188 defenders of
    the region became `shahids', heroes in the Azeri manner. As regards
    numerous victims among the civil population in Kapan, Armenia, as a
    result of long-lasting shelling from Zangelan, official Baku is
    `modestly' silent.

    There is growing influence of the geopolitical changes in the region
    on Nagorno-Karabakh's status quo. The much warmer relations between
    Turkey and Iran are of fundamental importance. Although at his press
    conference Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan stated Turkey has no
    intention to act as mediator between Iran and the West, there is no
    doubt Ankara is playing this role. A new agreement on the supply of
    Iranian gas to Turkey and further to Europe is within the framework of
    the arm-twisting policy implemented by official Baku, which is
    torpedoing the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process by holding a
    non-constructive position. It is difficult, however, to imagine a
    situation when a major regional conflict remains frozen amid radical
    geopolitical changes in the region. This not only runs counter to the
    interests of key geopolitical players, which are nearing a consensus
    on the key political issues, but also is a serious impediment to
    further implementation of major international energy projects.

    So it is no wonder that the international mediators should be expected
    to intensify their efforts to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
    next month. Much depends on the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs'
    forthcoming visit to the region. Which of the events will be the first
    to occur ` the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols by the
    two Parliaments to be followed by a framework agreement on the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or vice versa? It will be clear within the
    next few weeks. The fact is that there remains the only state that is
    capable of frustrating all the regional processes thereby turning into
    a rogue nation. In the near future we will be able to see whether the
    geopolitical players will allow Azerbaijan to do it.

    Economy and social life

    This week the Armenian Parliament has adopted, in the third reading,
    the bill on construction of a new nuclear power unit in Armenia.
    Introducing the bill, RA Minister of Energy and Natural Resources
    Armen Movsisyan said that the document provides for the construction
    of a power unit or units with a total capacity of 1.2MW and operating
    life of 60 years. The project is estimated at U.S. $4.5bn. Movsisyan
    pointed out that the construction project is of special importance for
    Armenia ' the neighboring states have energy deficit, while Armenia is
    the only regional country generating electric energy not only for
    domestic needs, but also for exports. President of the Rostom
    Corporation Sergey Kiriyenko, who was on a visit to Yerevan, stated
    the corporation's readiness to participate in the construction
    project.

    Iran plans to increase its gas exports to Armenia five-fold in the
    near future. The information is reliable, as it was the IRNA agency
    that reported it, referring to a local official. `We plan to increase
    daily gas exports from 2m to 10m cubic meters,' the official said.
    Gazprombank (Russia) and the ArmRosgasprom CJSC signed a 7-year
    agreement on a U.S. $40m credit line. ArmRosgasprom reported it is one
    more step in carrying out Gazprombank's strategic task of developing
    effective cooperation with the Armenian fuel-energy complex.

    `Emigration from Armenia has reached 20.3%. Most of the emigrants,
    72.8%, prefer Europe,' Irina Davtyan, Deputy Head of the Migration
    Agency, stated at the UN Office in Yerevan. According to her report
    entitled `Overcoming obstacles: human migration and development', 2/3
    of Armenian emigrants prefer Russia, and 9% the other of the CIS
    member-states.

    A 67% decrease in diamond exports has been registered in Armenia this
    January-September as compared with the corresponding period last year.
    The RA Customs Service reports that a total of 60,875 carats of
    diamonds were exported this January-September. Thus, Armenia's
    diamonds exports decreased by U.S. $70m as compared with the
    corresponding period last year. Diamond exports totaled U.S. $39.1m
    this January-September against U.S. $109m (21,200 carats) last
    January-September.
    From: Baghdasarian
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