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BAKU: Eurasian Strategy Project Director: Armenian Government Is Tak

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  • BAKU: Eurasian Strategy Project Director: Armenian Government Is Tak

    EURASIAN STRATEGY PROJECT DIRECTOR: ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT IS TAKING A POLITICAL RISK

    Today
    http://www.today.az/news/politics/5783 4.html
    Dec 1 2009
    Azerbaijan

    Eurasian Strategy Project and Georgetown University professor Cory
    Welt spoke to Day.Az about the upcoming meeting of U.S. President
    Barak Obama and Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    "President Obama and Prime Minister Erdogan will have a number of
    pressing issues to discuss next month. Insofar as the Turkey-Armenia
    normalization process is one of these issues, we can expect that their
    conversation will also touch upon the Karabakh conflict resolution
    process. For now, the Turkish parliament seems to be holding out on
    ratification with the aim of encouraging at least a minor breakthrough
    on Karabakh," - Welt said.

    "If this attitude persists through the December visit, then the
    two leaders will undoubtedly discuss ways to encourage such a
    breakthrough. The contours of this breakthrough should be familiar
    by now: some kind of agreement that points the way to the withdrawal
    of Armenian forces from most of the occupied territories around
    Nagorno-Karabakh as well as the formulation of a neutral "interim"
    status for Nagorno-Karabakh that points neither to secession nor
    re-integration into Azerbaijan," - Welt added.

    "There are at least two immediate obstacles to achieving such a
    breakthrough, however, or in relying on the United States to persuade
    Armenia to move forward on such a deal. First, the Armenian government
    is already taking a political risk on normalization with Turkey;
    even if President Sargsyan was prepared to move forward on Karabagh
    (which is by no means certain), he would undoubtedly prefer to take
    one risky move at a time."

    "Second, the Azerbaijani government is not making it as easy for the
    United States to support its position as it could. While President
    Aliyev's public support for a "status neutral" solution to the Karabagh
    conflict is highly welcome, official rhetoric regarding Azerbaijan's
    willingness to use force as a last resort is negatively received in the
    U.S. - all the moreso after we witnessed the recent bloodshed in the
    South Caucasus. At the same time, Azerbaijani internal developments,
    for better or for worse, inescapably influence American views toward
    Azerbaijan and its state interests" - the expert noted.
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