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NKR: Falsehood In Azeri Style

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  • NKR: Falsehood In Azeri Style

    FALSEHOOD IN AZERI STYLE
    Leonid Martirosyan

    Azat Artsakh Newspaper NKR
    November 30, 2009

    Meeting of Armenian and azeri presidents,which took place in
    Munich on November 22 originated wide publicity on Karabakh conflict
    settlement. Particularly, we must tell, the panic began not because of
    the discussion around basic principles of Karabakh conflict settlement
    result, as it's clear, in today's conditions of extremal polarization
    of the sides' positions on important questions, it's hardly possible
    to expect any effective results. Breakthrough can not take place,
    and in this sense, Munich meeting is not exclusion. Instead of this, I.

    Aliyev became the news- maker of Munich meeting, who was the reason of
    the panic, about whom was mentioned above. In Germany, azeri president,
    in the threshold of meeting, made a number of warlike statements,
    in particular, affirming that if official Baku loses hopes on talks
    process, in this case "Azerbaijan have all rights to liberate its
    lands by war way". We must confess, this sudden statement, which has
    rich precedent, caused big ado. Moreover, these warlike statements
    made impression on several mass medias and observers of unleashing war
    actions by Azerbaijan. But how serious are the statements of Aliyev,
    and is new war possible? Certainly, from geopolitical point of view,
    taking into account problematic conditions and azeri-karabakh conflict
    unresolvement, the war scenary can not be excluded in this situation.

    Nevertheless, we can not doubt that azeri president makes clear
    falsehood. It's necessary to say, this way is favorite for him, because
    in threshold of nearly every round of armenian-azeri high level talks,
    he makes warlike retoric statements. As we think, we can qualify the
    statements of azeri president as tough diplomatic step. It's much
    doubtable, he will dare to initiate war actions,as it will witness
    about irrational mentality of president. But whatever treatment we
    present towards Aliyev's intellectual skills,the fact of absence
    of pragmatism is hardly doubtable in Aliyev's mind.He realizes,in
    the situation when progressive world players interested to preserve
    developed balance of the powers in the region, in case of unleashing
    war, Azerbaijan not only gets any state's aid, but also it's doomed
    to be sanctioned by international community.We must not underestimate
    another restraining so called petty merchantilistic factor, it's
    the interest of Aliyev in realisation of oil and gas projects, on
    success of which depend the sizes of capital of president's family. In
    addition to this, the political and economic interests of the centers
    of extremely influensive power are connected with these energetic
    contracts, who simply will not let Azerbaijan annul their plans. The
    times, when official Baku could offend itself to take comparatively
    independent decisions concerning to conducting wars, remained in
    the deep past. Azerbaijan must make up with the fact, when his role
    and authority decreased as a regional player, which became obvious
    after armenian-turkish normalisation process initiation.Official
    Baku seems to realize, that its foreign policy strategy began to
    make mistakes. Today's nervousness explains harsh movements of
    Azerbaijan, illogical actions of Baku as well. If as azeri official
    representatives affirm, the process of Karabakh conflict settlement
    goes according to azeri scenery,which is under the prejudices of
    returning armenian occupied seven provinces, in this case the basic
    question is originated. Why to threat Armenia by war in this case?
    We think answer is clear, Baku falses. Using war blackmail, first
    of all it is going to create good background, for realising its
    maximalist position in settlement process.Second, his militarist
    retoric speeches are addressed to Ankara, hoping to accept its aid
    in Karabakh problem settlement and in addition to this, to hinder
    armenian-azeri reprochement process. As concerns to possibility of
    the start of war actions, the victory is not guaranteed to Baku in
    new war. It could not succeed in war phase 1992-1994, though in this
    case it had preference in human and technical plans. It hardly could
    do now. Nevertheless, war is not the best way of solving political
    tasks and OSCE MG co-chairs, mediator states must answer strictly to
    militarist retoric statements of azeri side, and not limited by and
    extremely weak precautions, as it was made in Munich.

    As it's challenge not to only Armenia and Karabakh, but also to whole
    international community. Even if this challenge is accompanied by
    simple falsehood in Aliyev's style.
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