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RUSSIAN MP: TURKEY SHOULD ACT JOINTLY WITH RUSSIA, NOT U.S. IN KARABAKH ISSUE
Rasul Mehdiyev
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/politi cs/58180.html
14 December 2009 [12:51]
Day.Az interview with Sergei Markov, director of Russia-based
Institute of Political Studies, professor at Moscow State Institute
of International Relations and member of the Russian State Duma
(parliament).
Day.Az: How serious are the recent discussions between Turkish Prime
Minister Erdogan and U.S. President Obama about Armenia's leaving
seven occupied Azerbaijani regions around the former Nagorno-Karabakh
Autonomous Region in exchange for Turkey's ratifying the Turkey-Armenia
protocols and opening the borders?
Sergei Markov: This is not a subject of compromise between Armenia and
Turkey. I think that relations between these countries will improve.
There is another subject of the exchange involved- Armenia rejects
claims about the "genocide of 1915" and Turkey gives up economic
restrictions against the country.
I think, the situation is still closer to resolution which will
create a fundamentally new situation in the region. Both sides will
have quite substantial benefits from these steps. The fact that there
are forces both in Armenia and in Turkey that are trying to keep the
border closed clearly indicates that there is reason for a compromise,
but not victory of one party.
As to seven regions that were not part of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Autonomous Region during the Soviet Union, I think that they are
becoming basis for future compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
When the Armenian armed forces return their control to Azerbaijan,
in response they will gain some form of recognition of autonomy for
Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as some form of recognition of Armenian
control over the Lachin corridor. Because, Armenia's control over
Karabakh without control over this corridor is hard to exercise from
a practical standpoint.
What will happen in future? I think, the Turkish side will try to
get involved in a compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia
believes that it would be better if Turkey acted according to its
proposals together with Russia but not with the United States.
Because America today is still a major destabilizing force in the
Caucasus region. It cannot exercise full control there, because
it still does not want to contribute to it. There would be peace
in the Caucasus if some force establishes full control over the
region. But Americans are not able to establish full control there
and are unwilling to spend their own resources for this purpose.
So, I think it would be better for the U.S. and the EU leave the region
leaving behind only some economic ties and valuable policies, kindly
treating all others and Russia and Turkey, as the main leaders of the
peace process, would alone resolve all conflicts in the Caucasus. I
think one should expect success only in this case.
To what extent Russia is interested in full resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Or it does not matter for Russia at all?
Russia is interested in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Because fewer conflicts around its borders, the more calm the situation
will be.
Russia also wants to secure formation of a common economic area that
would include besides the current Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine (in
the near future) also Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Turkey. That
is why it needs peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
First, Russia does not want foreign players to solve your problem at
the expense of their interests. Secondly, Russia wants to ensure that
this process takes place very quietly and slowly. Because there is
likelihood not only to resolve the conflict, but also to unfreeze it
and to launch a new war. We know very well that the second is obtained
more easily than the first.
Do you believe that the current format of OSCE Minsk Group mediators is
the only truly format for the parties? Is the group is able to bring
something new into the talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani
presidents?
First, the Minsk format is the only working format which impedes
start of a war. We all say that the conflict should be solved, but we
must never forget that the existence of a peace, while not perfect,
is more important than war.
Secondly, one can think of dozens of different diplomatic formats.
So, it is wrong to assume that the OSCE Minsk Group is the only
possible format. I believe South Caucasus, including the very three
states, plus three countries around the Caucasus - Russia, Turkey
and Iran, is the most optimal format to solve conflicts in the region.
Unfortunately, the U.S. influence has a destabilizing effect on
the region. Obama has not yet been able to completely abandon the
Bush-Cheney policy.
Rasul Mehdiyev
Today.Az
http://www.today.az/news/politi cs/58180.html
14 December 2009 [12:51]
Day.Az interview with Sergei Markov, director of Russia-based
Institute of Political Studies, professor at Moscow State Institute
of International Relations and member of the Russian State Duma
(parliament).
Day.Az: How serious are the recent discussions between Turkish Prime
Minister Erdogan and U.S. President Obama about Armenia's leaving
seven occupied Azerbaijani regions around the former Nagorno-Karabakh
Autonomous Region in exchange for Turkey's ratifying the Turkey-Armenia
protocols and opening the borders?
Sergei Markov: This is not a subject of compromise between Armenia and
Turkey. I think that relations between these countries will improve.
There is another subject of the exchange involved- Armenia rejects
claims about the "genocide of 1915" and Turkey gives up economic
restrictions against the country.
I think, the situation is still closer to resolution which will
create a fundamentally new situation in the region. Both sides will
have quite substantial benefits from these steps. The fact that there
are forces both in Armenia and in Turkey that are trying to keep the
border closed clearly indicates that there is reason for a compromise,
but not victory of one party.
As to seven regions that were not part of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Autonomous Region during the Soviet Union, I think that they are
becoming basis for future compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
When the Armenian armed forces return their control to Azerbaijan,
in response they will gain some form of recognition of autonomy for
Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as some form of recognition of Armenian
control over the Lachin corridor. Because, Armenia's control over
Karabakh without control over this corridor is hard to exercise from
a practical standpoint.
What will happen in future? I think, the Turkish side will try to
get involved in a compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia
believes that it would be better if Turkey acted according to its
proposals together with Russia but not with the United States.
Because America today is still a major destabilizing force in the
Caucasus region. It cannot exercise full control there, because
it still does not want to contribute to it. There would be peace
in the Caucasus if some force establishes full control over the
region. But Americans are not able to establish full control there
and are unwilling to spend their own resources for this purpose.
So, I think it would be better for the U.S. and the EU leave the region
leaving behind only some economic ties and valuable policies, kindly
treating all others and Russia and Turkey, as the main leaders of the
peace process, would alone resolve all conflicts in the Caucasus. I
think one should expect success only in this case.
To what extent Russia is interested in full resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Or it does not matter for Russia at all?
Russia is interested in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Because fewer conflicts around its borders, the more calm the situation
will be.
Russia also wants to secure formation of a common economic area that
would include besides the current Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine (in
the near future) also Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Turkey. That
is why it needs peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
First, Russia does not want foreign players to solve your problem at
the expense of their interests. Secondly, Russia wants to ensure that
this process takes place very quietly and slowly. Because there is
likelihood not only to resolve the conflict, but also to unfreeze it
and to launch a new war. We know very well that the second is obtained
more easily than the first.
Do you believe that the current format of OSCE Minsk Group mediators is
the only truly format for the parties? Is the group is able to bring
something new into the talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani
presidents?
First, the Minsk format is the only working format which impedes
start of a war. We all say that the conflict should be solved, but we
must never forget that the existence of a peace, while not perfect,
is more important than war.
Secondly, one can think of dozens of different diplomatic formats.
So, it is wrong to assume that the OSCE Minsk Group is the only
possible format. I believe South Caucasus, including the very three
states, plus three countries around the Caucasus - Russia, Turkey
and Iran, is the most optimal format to solve conflicts in the region.
Unfortunately, the U.S. influence has a destabilizing effect on
the region. Obama has not yet been able to completely abandon the
Bush-Cheney policy.