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  • BAKU: Russian Expert: Armenia Will Simply Have To Listen To Ankara's

    RUSSIAN EXPERT: ARMENIA WILL SIMPLY HAVE TO LISTEN TO ANKARA'S POSITION

    Today
    Dec 25 2009
    Azerbaijan

    Day.Az interview with the All-Russia Public Opinion Research Center
    Director General, political analyst Valery Fyodorov.

    How do you assess the negotiations to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict?

    The fact that the negotiations have been intensified lately is a
    success. Armenia seeks to gain certain achievements, in other words,
    establish diplomatic ties with Turkey and get borders reopened. Of
    course, everything is not simple, but Armenia is hopeful of success.

    I also want to note that if Armenia had taken diehard stance in
    relations with Azerbaijan, it could have hardly achieved success in
    improving relations with Turkey. Turkey would not have agreed to this
    in this case.

    Nevertheless, final formula to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has
    not yet been defined. The negotiations are continuing accompanied among
    other things by clear statements from Azerbaijan that it considers
    military action as an alternative solution to the problem.

    The most important is that the negotiations are being held and both
    parties can see prerequisite for this.

    At a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama, Turkish PM Erdogan
    stated that opening of borders with Armenia depends on resolution of
    the Karabakh conflict. Many political forces oppose ratification of the
    Turkey-Armenia protocols both in Turkey and Armenia. If the parliaments
    of the countries do not ratify them, then what does Armenia hope for?

    Armenia is hopeful of success because signing of the protocols
    is a big deal for them. There are really a lot of talk about the
    ratification. If one of the parliaments do not ratify them, we can
    say with certainty that Yerevan hoped for prematurely.

    Turkey is aware of importance of partnership relations with Azerbaijan,
    but it tries to maintain their own policies. Ankara is trying to act
    as an arbiter in conflicts in the Middle East and the Caucasus guided
    by its own personal interests first and foremost.

    Another proof is the signing of protocols with Armenia.

    Do you think the protocols will be ratified only in case the resolution
    of the Karabakh conflict marks a serious progress?

    Of course, everything is interconnected. Baku is trying to recall this
    at every opportunity while Armenia tries to avoid this connection. It
    all depends on Ankara as there is certain priority for it.

    You stated that Turkey is seeking to become arbiter of the region,
    and thus its leader. What Russia's attitude to this intention?

    First, it is very important for Kremlin to maintain its leadership
    in the post-Soviet area, particularly in the Caucasus. Obviously,
    it does not want to spoil relations in the Caucasus - between the
    traditional ally Armenia and a very important trade and strategic
    partner - Azerbaijan. After the events that took place in Georgia
    last year these relations acquired particular importance.

    For Moscow it is important to maintain this clear, coherent and
    multi-vector policy. Russia is doing everything to reach mutually
    acceptable resolution to the conflict. Russia has no conditions in
    this regard as we can see in case with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    Moscow insists on their recognition. The Kremlin is ready to accept
    any option which would suit both parties.

    So, Moscow takes a neutral position on this issue?

    I think it is rather mediator. Moscow is trying to be an honest broker
    whose task is to encourage both sides and once again push to resolve
    the conflict.

    The negotiations were very intense this year as evidenced by numerous
    high-level meetings. Do you think we will witness real steps in terms
    of the conflict settlement in 2010?

    The negotiations were actually stepped up this year. This is a big
    step forward. However, after some time it will not be enough. The
    negotiations should produce some results and I think today all efforts
    are focused on this.

    Do you favor the option which will protract resolution of the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? In this case, breaking the blockade,
    Armenia will no longer remain in such bad condition and will not be
    so dependent on outcome of the settlement?

    There are such fears, of course. However, it should be noted that in
    this case Armenia's dependence on Turkey will significantly increase
    and Yerevan will simply have to listen to Ankara's position on various
    issues. The latter, of course, is interested in resolving the Karabakh
    conflict under conditions favorable to Azerbaijan.
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