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AZERBAIJANI EXPERT: TURKEY WILL TRY TO SPEED UP RESOLUTION OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT IN 2010
Today
Dec 28 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Director of Conflict Studies Department at the
Azerbaijan-based Institute of Peace and Democracy Arif Yunusov.
Day.Az: How do you assess the outcome of Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov's recent visit to Turkey?
Unfortunately, there are no detailed reports about the visit. There
are usually a lot of words of friendship, brotherhood and strategic
cooperation in such cases. In the meantime, this visit is linked, of
course, with some changes in the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, and
it should be seen as an attempt to solve the problems. Apparently,
it was impossible to fully solve the problems. Therefore, the
ministers preferred not to specifically discuss the problems making
only habitual statements. This happens when usually they fail to
achieve any particular result. Therefore it is difficult to give a
clear assessment of Mammadyarov's visit to Turkey.
The ministers did not sign a protocol to abolish the visa regime
between Azerbaijan and Turkey contrary to expectations. Do you think
this protocol will be signed soon? In what way it will benefit the
two countries?
The Turkish side has long insisted on abolishing the visa
requirements. Turkey unilaterally abolished visa requirements for
Azerbaijani citizens from August 1, 2007. However, the Azerbaijani
side has since avoided a similar step with regard to Turkish citizens.
But Turkey insisted on abolishing the visa requirements all the time
and it was becoming more difficult for the Azerbaijani side to seek
explanation for refusal.
That is, abolition of a visa regime is not a routine and technical
challenge for bilateral relations. Turkey still proved to be resistant
and intended to resolve this issue during this visit. But this
did not happen. In general, one thing is clear - in the course of
negotiations the parties failed to resolve these problems this year
with visa issue remaining a stumbling block.
It is hard to say Azerbaijan will abolish the visa regime in 2010.
After all, this issue is in the context of other issues between the
two countries. It is possible that Azerbaijan will not cancel the visa
regime if Turkey ratifies the protocols signed with Armenia and reopens
its borders with Armenia until the Karabakh conflict is resolved. So,
one does not need to be sure that this issue will be addressed. At
the same time, abolition of the visa regime would improve bilateral
relations and lead to an increase in the arrival of Turkish citizens
and, above all, businessmen in Azerbaijan.
How do you assess the year 2009 for the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations?
This was the worst year for the Azeri-Turkish relations since
independence in 1991. The case even reached the public statements by
politicians of the two countries with demarches with flags of both
countries. For the first time the media started talking about cooling
of relations and the end of the period of "brotherhood" and transition
to relations in the category of "public interest". Fortunately,
the crisis has partly been overcome largely due to the fact that the
parties have an understanding of a mutual dependence and danger to both
countries in case of total crisis in relations between the parties.
In your opinion, will Turkey attach importance to resolution of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2010?
The coming year will be very difficult for Turkey. The "Armenian
question" will be priority, of course. Turkey will eventually ratify
the protocols which it will cause a new crisis in relations with
Azerbaijan. Certainly, Turkey will try to speed up settlement of the
Karabakh conflict with the help of the U.S. and EU. But the coming
year is an election year. So, it is unrealistic to hope for a positive
solution to the Karabakh issue in the election year. This means that
Turkey will not be able play a significant role in resolving the
Karabakh conflict.
How do you see the year 2010 for the South Caucasus?
We can hardly expect any serious changes in dynamics of developments
in the region. No doubt, number of high-level meetings and travels of
the Minsk Group co-chairs to the region will markedly increase in the
first half. There will be very more optimistic statements. However,
I think there is no need to hope for signing of the final document on
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. When the time of elections
comes, diplomatic activity will noticeably subside. And all hopes
will be carried over to 2011. Also, there will be no changes in the
South Ossetian and Abkhaz conflict, to be exact - the Georgian-Russian
relations. There will be no major changes in this regard.
Today
Dec 28 2009
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with Director of Conflict Studies Department at the
Azerbaijan-based Institute of Peace and Democracy Arif Yunusov.
Day.Az: How do you assess the outcome of Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov's recent visit to Turkey?
Unfortunately, there are no detailed reports about the visit. There
are usually a lot of words of friendship, brotherhood and strategic
cooperation in such cases. In the meantime, this visit is linked, of
course, with some changes in the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, and
it should be seen as an attempt to solve the problems. Apparently,
it was impossible to fully solve the problems. Therefore, the
ministers preferred not to specifically discuss the problems making
only habitual statements. This happens when usually they fail to
achieve any particular result. Therefore it is difficult to give a
clear assessment of Mammadyarov's visit to Turkey.
The ministers did not sign a protocol to abolish the visa regime
between Azerbaijan and Turkey contrary to expectations. Do you think
this protocol will be signed soon? In what way it will benefit the
two countries?
The Turkish side has long insisted on abolishing the visa
requirements. Turkey unilaterally abolished visa requirements for
Azerbaijani citizens from August 1, 2007. However, the Azerbaijani
side has since avoided a similar step with regard to Turkish citizens.
But Turkey insisted on abolishing the visa requirements all the time
and it was becoming more difficult for the Azerbaijani side to seek
explanation for refusal.
That is, abolition of a visa regime is not a routine and technical
challenge for bilateral relations. Turkey still proved to be resistant
and intended to resolve this issue during this visit. But this
did not happen. In general, one thing is clear - in the course of
negotiations the parties failed to resolve these problems this year
with visa issue remaining a stumbling block.
It is hard to say Azerbaijan will abolish the visa regime in 2010.
After all, this issue is in the context of other issues between the
two countries. It is possible that Azerbaijan will not cancel the visa
regime if Turkey ratifies the protocols signed with Armenia and reopens
its borders with Armenia until the Karabakh conflict is resolved. So,
one does not need to be sure that this issue will be addressed. At
the same time, abolition of the visa regime would improve bilateral
relations and lead to an increase in the arrival of Turkish citizens
and, above all, businessmen in Azerbaijan.
How do you assess the year 2009 for the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations?
This was the worst year for the Azeri-Turkish relations since
independence in 1991. The case even reached the public statements by
politicians of the two countries with demarches with flags of both
countries. For the first time the media started talking about cooling
of relations and the end of the period of "brotherhood" and transition
to relations in the category of "public interest". Fortunately,
the crisis has partly been overcome largely due to the fact that the
parties have an understanding of a mutual dependence and danger to both
countries in case of total crisis in relations between the parties.
In your opinion, will Turkey attach importance to resolution of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2010?
The coming year will be very difficult for Turkey. The "Armenian
question" will be priority, of course. Turkey will eventually ratify
the protocols which it will cause a new crisis in relations with
Azerbaijan. Certainly, Turkey will try to speed up settlement of the
Karabakh conflict with the help of the U.S. and EU. But the coming
year is an election year. So, it is unrealistic to hope for a positive
solution to the Karabakh issue in the election year. This means that
Turkey will not be able play a significant role in resolving the
Karabakh conflict.
How do you see the year 2010 for the South Caucasus?
We can hardly expect any serious changes in dynamics of developments
in the region. No doubt, number of high-level meetings and travels of
the Minsk Group co-chairs to the region will markedly increase in the
first half. There will be very more optimistic statements. However,
I think there is no need to hope for signing of the final document on
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. When the time of elections
comes, diplomatic activity will noticeably subside. And all hopes
will be carried over to 2011. Also, there will be no changes in the
South Ossetian and Abkhaz conflict, to be exact - the Georgian-Russian
relations. There will be no major changes in this regard.