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Andrei Areshev: The Caucasus map may become unrecognizable

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  • Andrei Areshev: The Caucasus map may become unrecognizable

    news.am, Armenia
    Jan 4 2009


    Andrei Areshev: The Caucasus map may become unrecognizable


    15:07 / 01/04/2010Last year did not bring closer the solution to any
    of the South Caucasian conflicts ` the Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazian or
    Ossetian ones, Andrei Areshev, Deputy Director General of the
    Strategic Culture Foundation (Russia) told NEWS.am. Last year did not
    see any breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, and `it is
    unlikely in 2010 either.'

    `Maintaining the status quo seems to be the most optimistic scenario
    for the region. The primary reason is Azerbaijan's radical position on
    Nagorno-Karabakh's future status,' Areshev said. The situation is
    rather difficult, and an active information policy is a priority task
    for both Armenia and Azerbaijani authorities. This policy is in
    explaining to the mediators the essence of the conflict and the
    possible negative consequences the `unfreezing' may have.

    `On the other hand, the Armenian side is well aware that surrendering
    even one of the regions or a small territory without any guarantees,
    with no one able to give them, is fraught with grave consequences for
    not only Nagorno-Karabakh, but also for Armenia,' the expert said.

    As to the possibility of a new military conflict or the resumption of
    old ones, Areshev does not rule it out. On the other hand, he said
    that much depends on the conflicting parties. If they properly realize
    the actual estate of affairs and the fact that any changes of the
    status are possible only with reliable international guarantees
    provided, the situation will remain unchanged. Nagorno-Karabakh's
    status will mainly be negotiated in 2010, Areshev said. `The
    negotiations may last as long as possible, which may cause discontent
    with the process or results. But any negotiations are better than no
    negotiations or resumptions of conflicts,' the expert said.

    As regards the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process, which, Areshev
    said, was the most significant event in 2009 and caused Armenians to
    experience ambivalent feelings, but the situation required concrete
    steps. `Unfortunately, there are the third parties, Azerbaijan and the
    United States, which, according to some information, proposed this
    initiative,' he said.

    Any fundamental changes can hardly be expected in 2010. `As to the
    following years, I would prefer less historicism, as we can witness
    rather dynamic developments and may fail to recognize the map of the
    South Caucasus,' Areshev said. If Ankara goes on linking the
    Armenia-Turkey reconciliation to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process,
    which is Azerbaijan's wish, the process will reach a stalemate.

    As regards the other conflicts in the South Caucasus ` South Ossetia
    and Abkhazia `

    Areshev pointed out that the situation is being consistently
    exacerbated, and the process will go on. `Gross provocations are
    possible late in 2010 and early in 2011,' he said. Although Russia
    recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, Georgia
    has not put us with the loss. Active militarization is under way in
    Georgia, and, as before, under the United States' immediate direction.
    `Nothing has changed since the Bush Administration was in power ` only
    it is not as public as before. The support is not so overt, but old
    methods are applied,' Areshev said. Georgia has considerably enhanced
    its army's fighting efficiency since August 2008. `Russia, with its
    influence over the South Caucasus weakened in 2009, will have to meet
    new challenges,' the expert said. He expressed hope that Russia will
    intensify its role in 2010 and will make its foreign policy
    transparent.

    T.P.
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