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  • BAKU: Azerbaijan gradually becoming stronger vis-a-vis Armeni

    news.az, Azerbaijan
    Jan 7 2010

    Azerbaijan is gradually becoming stronger vis-Ã-vis Armenia, scientist
    Thu 07 January 2010 | 09:53 GMT Text size:


    Dmitry Gorenburg News.Az interviews Dmitry Gorenburg, Harvard
    University, Executive Director American Association for the
    Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS).

    In your opinion, does Russia have a great influence in South Caucasus
    region? What kind of political leverage could Moscow exert on Baku and
    Yerevan?

    Russia is by far the most important player in the region. It has the
    most powerful military (both army and navy ` including the Black Sea
    Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla). It also has numerous political levers
    it can use ` including control of Abkhazia and South Osetia vis-Ã-vis
    Georgia. Despite the recent rapprochement with Turkey, Armenia remains
    virtually a Russian client state and this relationship can be used to
    limit Azerbaijan's freedom of maneuver. Finally, Russian corporations
    (some state-owned) control a significant part of the region's
    infrastructure, especially in Armenia. All of these factors allow
    Russia to have a great deal of influence in the region.

    The uses to which this leverage can be put are another matter.
    Russia's goals in the region seem to be limited to 1) neutralizing
    Georgia, 2) reducing US/NATO influence and 3) maintaining/increasing
    its control over energy transit from the region to Europe.

    The 2008 war with Georgia allowed it to more or less achieve goals 1
    and 2. Goal 3 is proving more difficult, not so much because of
    Nabucco and BTC, but because of the increasing role being played in
    the larger region by China, which is constructing pipelines that will
    reduce Russian control over Caspian energy transit even if they don't
    reach Azerbaijan itself.

    In your opinion, to what extent is Russia interested in peaceful
    settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? What kind of interests
    does Russia pursue in this?

    I'm afraid I have not been following this topic closely in recent
    years and cannot answer this question with much confidence.

    What do you think about the current geopolitical role of Turkey in the
    South Caucasus and this country's interests in the region?

    In previous years, Turkey saw itself as a close ally of Azerbaijan in
    its conflict with Armenia. This was part of its effort to be the
    leader of the international Turkic community. More recently, Turkey
    has been trying to play more a more even-handed role, including its
    recent opening to Armenia. I see this as a positive development. I
    don't think there is any chance of settling the NK dispute as long as
    Armenia feels isolated ` they will refuse any settlement and maintain
    their fortress mentality. But as relations develop with Turkey, it may
    turn out that Armenia comes to feel less encircled, and therefore more
    secure. This may lead to a greater willingness to compromise. A second
    factor for Turkey is that its elites have come to realize that they
    share many interests in common with Russia, especially in the Black
    Sea . This has led to closer relations between these two countries, as
    they work on trying to limit the influence of outsiders in the region.

    Is there any possibility of breaking out the military operation
    between Azerbaijan and Armenia again? If it happens, what countries
    could be drawn in the war, taking into consideration the presence of
    Russian military base in Armenia, on the one hand, and the strong
    strategic relationships between Azerbaijan and Turkey, on the other
    hand?

    Again, I haven't followed the specifics of the NK conflict very
    closely. At the same time, it seems to me that the situation is
    inherently unstable. Azerbaijan is gradually becoming stronger
    vis-Ã-vis Armenia. For this reason, I expect that any future conflict
    would have to be started by the Azerbaijani side.

    Armenia has everything it wants and has no reason to start a war it
    might well lose. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, could well retake some
    or all of the occupied territories, but runs two very serious risks:
    1) the possibility of Russian intervention to help Armenia, which
    would make Azeri victory virtually impossible and 2) the loss of
    Western political and financial support if it is seen as the aggressor
    in such a conflict, which would have a severe impact on the country's
    economy.

    These two factors, I would guess, limit the willingness of Azeri
    elites to launch a war. (Turkey, I would venture, would not intervene
    in this conflict unless it is obvious to everyone that the war is
    started by Armenia.)

    B.A
    News.Az
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