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  • BAKU: Turkey to try persuade Moscow to exert pressure on Armenia

    news.az, Azerbaijan
    Jan 7 2010


    Turkey to try persuade Moscow to exert pressure on Armenia in Karabakh issue
    Thu 07 January 2010 | 12:13 GMT Text size:


    Tabib Huseynov News.Az interviews Tabib Huseynov, analyst of the
    International Crisis Group.

    Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to visit
    Russia during which the Karabakh conflict is said to be one of the
    central issues. What should we expect from this visit?

    We should view this visit as a link in the overall chain of the
    settlement process. Certainly, this single visit will not change
    anything, but if we view it in the context of the whole process, this
    visit is very important as Turkey will try to persuade Russia to
    influence Armenia. If Armenia agrees to a compromise in the Karabakh
    settlement, which would result in a framework agreement on basic
    principles of the settlement, the ratification of the Turkish-Armenian
    protocols will be possible. Turkey understands that without a progress
    in Karabakh it won't be able to open borders with Armenia as
    Azerbaijan is against it. Therefore, Ankara wants Russia to influence
    Armenia. In this sense, certainly, Erdogan's visit is important for
    Turkey.

    How do you assess Erdogan's chances to persuade Russia to put pressure
    on Armenia?

    In fact, the chances are not bad. If we view the dynamics of
    development of relations between Turkey and Russia, it is very
    positive. Turkey and Russia today are very big trade partners, they
    have strategic partnership in a wide specter of issues, for example,
    on preservation of the status quo in the Black Sea basin, which means
    that these countries are for their own hegemony in the region. This
    issue is of great importance for Russia and Turkey. Moreover, Turkey
    has recently agreed for Russia's use of the Turkish coast to lay the
    South Stream gas pipeline which is also important for the relations
    between these two countries. It should be noted that Russia is
    interested in the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border also because
    it will cut Armenia's dependence on the Georgian transit and, thus,
    the role of Georgia as a transit country in the region and for Armenia
    will be reduced. Therefore, considering Moscow's interest in the
    Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, it can be suggested that it will try
    to attain any progress in the Karabakh issue. We have seen that
    throughout 2009 Russia has been the most active mediator in the
    Karabakh conflict settlement. It is possible to agree on a framework
    agreement on the basic principles if the dynamism of the last year's
    Armenia-Azerbaijan talks as well as the international interest to the
    Turkish-Armenian rapprochement remain.

    As Armenia is the closest ally of Russia in this region and
    considering this it is clear that Moscow will not change its position
    in the Karabakh settlement, does Turkey have something to offer to
    Russia in exchange for its benevolence in the Karabakh conflict
    settlement?

    Well, then it would be more reasonable to ask what Azerbaijan can
    offer to Russia¦ I think, certainly, Armenia will remain the closest
    ally of Russia in the Caucasus. Even if Azerbaijan tries, it will not
    be able to take Armenia's place for Russia. But the situation around
    the Karabakh conflict today is somewhat unique because all external
    powers, including Russia, are interested in changing the status quo in
    the region not radically but gradually and in a predictable and
    controllable manner. There is a certain consensus among the OSCE Minsk
    Group co-chair countries that the status quo of the Karabakh process
    is not sustainable. After the Russian-Georgian war Russia is also
    interested in changing the status quo in the region, as it understands
    that the remaining problems may detonate and lead to undesirable
    implications for itself as well as for Europe and the US. They came to
    an opinion that the status quo should be changed gradually and in a
    predictable manner so that this change does not destabilize the
    situation and preserves all stakeholders' interests. The framework
    agreement on the basic principles that is now being discussed by the
    presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in fact does not contradict to
    the basic interests of Russia as the Russian influence in the region
    will not decline in case the conflict settlement fixed in these basic
    principles is initiated. This means that Russia will preserve its
    levers of influence both on Armenia and on Azerbaijan as the
    determination of Karabakh's status will be left to an indefinite
    future term.

    By the way, despite your opinion that Russia is interested in
    normalization of these relations, there is another opinion that the
    Turkish-Armenian rapprochement will further extrude Russia from the
    South Caucasus. What can you say about this opinion?

    I think it is possible but in a remote perspective. This will not be
    the case in the short- to middle-term perspective. Even if the border
    between Turkey and Armenia opens, it will not mean that all the
    problems between the two countries will be settled at once. There will
    be a long process of reconciliation. The historical commission will
    consider topics that are painful both for Turks and Armenians. The
    Armenian insecurities about Turks will not pass quickly among
    Armenians. Besides, one should recall that the Russian troops are
    still present in Armenia and for the foreseeable future they will be
    remain to protect Armenia's borders. Moreover, Russia will retain the
    economic leverages on Armenia. Thus, the Turkish-Armenian border poses
    no clear threat to Russia. On the contrary, it will provide wider
    opportunities to Russia for raising its political presence in the
    region, reducing Armenia's dependence on the Georgian transit and
    getting more opportunities to put pressure on Georgia, including,
    perhaps, in the Javakheti issue. For example, today Moscow and Yerevan
    are not interested in stirring up trouble in Georgia's Javakheti
    region as Armenia depends strongly on the Georgian transit. But if
    Armenia has an alternative access to the world, Moscow and Yerevan may
    feel more convenient raising up the issue of Javakheti. Overall, we
    should take into account that Russia's policy in the region is
    many-sided, and Turkey's growing role in the region does not
    necessarily lead to reducing the Russian role.

    Leyla Tagiyeva
    News.Az
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