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ANKARA: After Kyrgyzstan: Is Next Stage Armenia or Belarus?

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  • ANKARA: After Kyrgyzstan: Is Next Stage Armenia or Belarus?

    Journal of Turkish Daily
    March 25 2005

    After Kyrgyzstan: Is Next Stage Armenia or Belarus?

    Davut SAHINER (JTW) After Georgia and Ukraine, 'silk revolution' hit
    Kyrgyzstan. President Askar Akayev has fled the country, and
    opposition MP Ishenbai Kadyrbekov was named acting president, hours
    after demonstrators overran the presidential palace in the capital,
    Bishkek.

    Gangs of looters roamed through the city overnight, ransacking shops
    and setting fire to buildings. At least three people are reported to
    have died during the unrest. However it is understood that Kyrgyzstan
    has faced a popular movement.

    The US named the 'revolution' democratic, while Russia and the
    neighboring Central Asia states are worried.

    For many IR experts Kyrgyzstan is the latest stage of 'the
    democratization process' triggered by the United States in the
    'greater Middle East and Eastern Europe, from Ukraine to China
    borders. Nese Mesudoglu from Sabah, Turkish daily paper, argues that
    the US uses George Soros and his foundations-societies in order to
    undermine the existing 'un-democratic' governments. "Silk revolutions
    follow Soros. When Soros goes a country, a revolution or unrest visit
    that country" Sabah says. Not surprisingly the Bishkek Soros
    Foundation was there before the 'revolution' and it is a well-known
    fact that the foundation was making great assistance to the
    opposition groups under the name of 'education and democratization'.
    The budget of the Bishkek Soros Foundation is about 4 million
    dollars. Soros had made financial assistance to the Serbian,
    Ukrainian and Georgian oppositions.

    Soros has foundations and societies in 30 countries. It is claimed
    that he supported opposition in Malaysia and Venezuela as well.

    Withdrawal of the Russian Empire

    It can be argued that the US continues to implement the 'Greater
    Middle East Initiative'. The Initiative has two columns: Military
    Operations and Democratization Operations. In the second column, the
    US encourages the opposing groups and minorities to overturn the
    existing 'dictatorial administrations' or 'anti-American powers'. In
    almost all countries experienced silk revolutions the power was
    belong to the anti-American groups, and all these governments had
    good relations with Russia. Kyrgyzstan is a peculiar case, because
    the Kyrgyzstan case can be considered as message not only to the
    Russians but also to the Chinese. The country is at the crossroads of
    Russia, China, India-Pakistan and the Turkic-Islamic World. Possibly,
    it is the greatest gain for the US 'Greater Middle Eastern Project'.
    Kyrgyzstan is a perfect 'base' to control Russian and Chinese
    politics in the region and to watch drug trafficking.

    Next Target: Belarus or Armenia?

    Kyrgyzstan is the latest example for the silk revolutions but not the
    last one. Many expects that the revolution wave will continue.
    Belarus is one of the possible candidates, but Armenia is the easiest
    one. President Robert Kocherian, Karabakh veteran, dominates the
    Armenian politics. He has very close relations with Russia and keeps
    the opposition under pressure.
    As Emil Danielyan pointed out "the ruling regime has heavily relied
    on the oligarchs to manipulate elections and bully its political
    opponents, making it doubtful that any serious action will be taken
    to rein them in. They are able to bribe and intimidate local voters
    and resort to other election falsification techniques. Ballot box
    stuffing was commonplace during the 2003 presidential election, which
    Western observers described as undemocratic." (Jamestown). The
    overwhelming majority of the Armenian population thinks that Armenian
    political system is not democratic and there is no hope for the
    future. The opposition started a huge campaign last year but
    Kocherian with his armed supporters from Karabakh severely suppressed
    the civil movement. Many were prisoned and tortured including very
    young and women. There are Russian military bases in Armenia and
    Kocherian Government is seen as the 'only Russian ally' in the
    Caucasus. Armenia also has good relations with Iran. The FBI
    investigates Armenian-Iranian connections in weapon trade and
    terrorism. There are a pro-Western governments in Azerbaijan and
    Georgia.

    JTW, 25 March 2005
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