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BAKU: Unresolved Status Of Karabakh Conflict - Hard Burden For Intra

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  • BAKU: Unresolved Status Of Karabakh Conflict - Hard Burden For Intra

    UNRESOLVED STATUS OF KARABAKH CONFLICT - HARD BURDEN FOR INTRAREGIONAL RELATIONS
    Leyla Tagiyeva

    news.az
    Feb 5 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Uwe Halbach News.Az interviews Dr. Uwe Halbach, researcher of German
    Institute for International Affairs and Security in Berlin.

    President of Azerbaijan is in Germany now. How do you estimate the
    relations between the two countries?

    Within the last five years relations between Azerbaijan and EU
    as well as the bilateral relations with Germany have become more
    intensive as before - due to Azerbaijan's rapid economic growth and an
    increased European and German interest in the diversification of energy
    supply and attention for a Southern Transport Corridor with the South
    Caucasus as its key region. Though Germany is not the main investor in
    Azerbaijan, some 45 German enterprises are active in Baku. There are
    special historical relations between both countries going back to the
    beginning of 19th century with German settlers in Azerbaijan. This
    history which was known only to a small community of experts in
    Germany is now becoming more prominent in the German public. In 2008
    the cultural, political and economic bilateral relations were presented
    in a "year of Azerbaijan" in Germany. Thus, knowledge about Azerbaijan,
    until recently a rather unknown partner for Germany, is growing.

    President Aliyev during his visit going to participate in the Munich
    conference on security issues. What kind of role can play Germany
    and EU in stabilization situation in the Sought Caucasus?

    Stabilization of the South Caucasus has mainly to do with working
    on unresolved conflicts from Abkhazia to Nagorno-Karabakh. On
    this field of action Germany is more part of the EU as an actor
    on its own. Until recently EU's role in conflict managing in the
    South Caucasus was limited. It was more a "working around conflict"
    with some rehabilitation projects in conflict damaged regions like
    South Ossetia than a "working on conflict" by active mediation or
    peacekeeping. EU's main argument for this reserved position was that
    other international actors like OSCE and UN were engaged in conflict
    mediation in this region since many years. The "August war" in Georgia
    2008 was a certain turning point in this regard. EU became the main
    mediator of the ceasefire agreements between Russia and Georgia and
    sent a monitoring mission to Georgia (EUMM). Thus, EU become more
    engaged in "working on conflict" as before.

    Why the EU is so passive in the settlement of Karabagh conflict,
    despite of huge economic interests of Europe in Azerbaijan?

    Among all unresolved conflicts in its Eastern Neighborhood EU is,
    indeed, least engaged in the conflict on Nagorno-Karabakh though this
    conflict is perceived as the historical key conflict in the South
    Caucasus and its unresolved status is a hard burden for intraregional
    relations. Again Brussels main argument was that other international
    actors are engaged in conflict resolution, in this case the co-chairs
    of the Minsk OSCE-group United States, Russia and France. Especially
    Russia has become very active in "peace diplomacy" in this conflict
    after the August war 2008.

    Do you think that efforts of Russia and Turkey to stabilize relations
    between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be successful?

    I think that Russia is seriously interested in a stabilization of
    the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as it is looking for
    increased economic and political relations with both sides. With regard
    to Turkey's role in the region I see that at first the unresolved
    Karabakh-conflict is blocking the Turkish-Armenian rapproachement
    process and the ratification of the Zurich protocols.

    It makes out of the bilateral diplomatic process between Ankara
    and Yerevan a tricky trilateral relationship with Azerbaijan being
    strongly against the opening of Turkey's border with Armenia without
    a preceeding withdrawal of Armenian troops from its own territory.

    Is there a threat of new war for Karabakh and what it will be for
    Europe ant its interests in the region?

    A new war on Karabakh would be against the interests of all sides. If
    all sides are acting rationally the threat of a new war should be
    minimal. For Azerbaijan the military variant of conflict resolution, as
    mentioned by President Aliyev before the meeting in Munich in November
    2009, would be the end of its "energy honeymoon" and its prosperous
    development of international relations. For Europe it would be a
    lasting and heavy interruption of its Southern Transport Corridor,
    which is just in the making, for Russia it would be a challenge of
    its security relationship with Armenia.

    Dr. Uwe Halbach, is researcher for the Russian Federation/CIS
    department of the German Institute for International Affairs and
    Security in Berlin.
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