Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Dependence Day

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Dependence Day

    DEPENDENCE DAY
    By Tom Balmforth

    Russia Profile
    http://www.russiaprofile.org/page.php?page id=International&articleid=a1266520246
    Feb 18 2010

    Bagapsh Might Not Really Be a Moscow Puppet, but His Current Isolation
    Gives Him Little Choice

    On a trip to Moscow on Wednesday Sergey Bagapsh, the president of
    the rebel region Abkhazia, inked a raft of deals with his Russian
    counterpart Dmitry Medvedev, including one that will establish a joint
    military ground force in the breakaway Georgian republic. Georgia
    winced and NATO wagged its finger. The ten bilateral deals, apparently
    signed to improve Abkhazia's security, include plans to upgrade an
    existing Russian base. Bagapsh also said the breakaway republic hopes
    to join the Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia Customs Union.

    Days after president Bagapsh was inaugurated for his second term
    as president of the breakaway Georgian republic, he embarked on a
    three-day visit to Moscow. He was received by Dmitry Medvedev at the
    Kremlin yesterday to commemorate 200 years since Abkhazia, on one of
    a number of past occasions, was absorbed into the Russian empire.

    In the run-up to this historic moment, the leader of the breakaway
    republic made some appropriate - and somewhat far-fetched - suggestions
    of how to further interweave Russian and Abkhaz futures, for instance
    bringing Abkhazia into the Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan Customs Union
    (even though neither Minsk nor Astana have recognized Abkhazia as a
    sovereign state). Bagapsh also suggested that restrictions might be
    lifted to allow Russians to buy up Abkhazia's prize real estate on the
    shores of the Black Sea where the Soviet elite used to go on vacation,
    the Kommersant news daily reported.

    During the meeting, the leaders signed in a raft of deals
    on bilateral cooperation between Russia and the rebel
    region, recognized only by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and
    speck-on-the-map-in-the-middle-of-the-Pacific- Ocean Nauru.

    Among other things, the presidents agreed to renovate the existing
    Russian military base at Gudauta, 37 kilometers north of Sukhumi,
    where 1,700 Russian troops are presently stationed. According to the
    deal, the base on the shores of the strategically important Black
    Sea will then host a "joint" ground force for the next 49 years. The
    accord will be renewed automatically every 15 years from then on,
    Itar-Tass reported.

    The ten accords were promptly condemned by a disgruntled West. "All
    agreements reached between Russia and the regions of Georgia are
    invalid," said Carmen Romero, the deputy spokesperson for NATO.

    Meanwhile Irakli Tuzhba, a spokesperson for the Abkhazian Foreign
    Ministry, insisted that the base and Russian troops are necessary to
    provide security.

    Alexei Malashenko, a Caucasus expert for Carnegie Moscow Center,
    said he wasn't at all surprised by the news, but that it guarantees
    Russia's future in the country. "This basically is a permanent treaty.

    It means that Russia will remain on the territory of Abkhazia as a
    military presence," said Malashenko.

    There are currently 4,000 Russian military servicemen stationed in
    Abkhazia, Tuzhba said, but when asked how this will change with the
    establishment of a base and a joint ground force, he declined to
    comment. "I think the contingent will be increased if it becomes
    necessary, but there is no need at the moment, so the military
    contingent is not increasing," he said.

    Both Medvedev and Bagapsh were full of warm rhetoric during their press
    conference and keen to use weak points in cooperation as building
    blocks in their relationship. While for instance admitting that the
    $130 million bilateral trade between Abkhazia and Russia is somewhat
    paltry, Medvedev said "it is only the beginning, the first phase in
    developed trade links and the starting point for further work." In
    fact the two leaders hope to sign in a further 22 deals to expand
    cooperation, they said. Bagapsh even revealed that Abkhaz railways will
    soon come under the full management of the Russian Railways company.

    So is Abkhazia happily slipping from shaky pseudo-independence,
    unrecognized by the vast majority of the international community, into
    increasing dependence on Russia? Although this appears to be the only
    way to interpret the events of Wednesday, it would be misleading to
    see Bagapsh as a Moscow puppet, said Sergey Markedonov, an independent
    political analyst and expert on the Caucasus. This has been clear,
    he said, since Bagapsh won Abkhazia's presidential elections in 2004,
    despite the Kremlin directly backing his rival. But the trouble for
    Bagapsh at the moment is that he has no other option, said Markedonov:
    "if five or six European countries did support Abkhazia, then maybe
    Bagapsh would favor European integration."

    "[Abkhazia] is not going to beg anyone to recognize it," Bagapsh said
    on Tuesday. So far Russia has kindly undertaken the job of lobbying
    for Abkhazia's "legitimacy." But it was a dubious amount of legitimacy
    that was bestowed upon Abkhazia's sovereignty when Moscow coaxed Nauru,
    an island of 11,000 people, into recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia
    in return for $50 million (150 million rubles) of humanitarian aid.

    These additions are bound to do little to change Abkhazia's situation,
    so does Sukhumi have to continue fully relying on Moscow? Abkhazia
    might find an alternative source of support in Ankara. Several analysts
    suggest that Turkey may come to recognize Abkhazia's independence
    because of its large Abkhaz diaspora. "Turkey is ready to establish
    special relations with Abkhazia. I don't know if they will recognize
    Abkhazia next year, but nonetheless they recognize the special position
    of Abkhazia," said Malashenko.

    To that extent, NATO members and Georgia are not the only countries
    to be wary of Russia expanding its military presence in Abkhazia. "I
    think Turkey is disappointed with this," said Malashenko. Turkey has
    recently become increasingly influential in the Black Sea region. "The
    Kremlin sees Turkey as a big rival as far as all conflicts and problems
    in the region are concerned. Traditionally, Russia has played the
    role of mediator in the 'frozen conflict' of Nagorny Karabakh, but
    now Turkey is getting more involved," he said. Whether Turkey's hand
    could drag Abkhazia out of its total dependence on Russia is, however,
    still unclear.
Working...
X