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ANKARA: The South Caucasus: A Common Future?

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  • ANKARA: The South Caucasus: A Common Future?

    THE SOUTH CAUCASUS: A COMMON FUTURE?
    Zaur SHIRIYEV

    Hurriyet
    April 29 2010
    Turkey

    Religious leaders from Armenia and Azerbaijan made a call in Baku for
    a peaceful resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict. The head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Catholicos
    Garegin II, stated that problems between states should be solved in
    accordance with international law and the rights of the nations and
    emphasized his faith in the common future of the South Caucasus.

    Clearly, the current situation in the region - the "frozen"
    Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, Russia's decision on the acceptance of
    independence of Georgian rebel regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
    since 2008, the Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and, more
    dramatically, Washington's "double-standards" toward Azerbaijan -
    raises a crucial question: "Is there a common future for the south
    Caucasus states?"

    Obviously, the region's current political systems and practices emerged
    in the turmoil of a collapsing superpower and have been deeply affected
    by this. Furthermore, if in the Baltic countries, home to another
    troika of former Soviet republics, the history, proximity to friendly
    neighbor nations and the generally accepted notion of European identity
    helped to mitigate the negative consequences of the post-Soviet
    transition to sustainable independence, the externalities in the
    south Caucasus acted to make the transition significantly harder.

    Contrary to some existing stereotypes, there seems to be little
    that inherently divides the peoples of the south Caucasus. Even if
    the most recent historic example of integration was the short-lived
    "Trans-Caucasian Federation" of 1917-18, it is, at least, a symbolic
    recognition of the regional identity and an attempt to establish
    and maintain a separate regional political entity. Especially, the
    Caucasus gathering under one roof, the formulas concerning economic
    or political integration have been raised. The formulas of The Common
    House of Caucasus, United States of Caucasus, the Caucasus Stability
    Pact, etc. are intended to put an end to the main source of the
    fragmented structure of instability in the region.

    The contemporary example of strong regional partnership between
    Azerbaijan and Georgia, two nations with very different dominant ethnic
    and religious groups, shows that not only a cooperative arrangement
    within the south Caucasus is possible, but also that it is, clearly,
    in the interest of its participants. Moreover, the Azerbaijani-Georgian
    cooperation has had a strong impact on the wider region, among other
    things, the largest infrastructure project, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan,
    or BTC, pipeline, and by having served as the core for the GUAM,
    the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development.

    Such cooperation is not based on history, but rather on the ability
    of both Baku and Tbilisi to overcome existing obstacles for a vision
    of a common future of the Caucasus. For the south Caucasus' common
    future to be fully realized, however, Armenia must be a part.

    Presently, Armenia stands largely separate from its two Caucasian
    neighbors and, unable to develop relations with Turkey, generally,
    acts more as an observer rather than a participant in the emerging
    partnerships in the region. It seems that if Azerbaijan and Georgia
    are fixated on the regional future, the Armenian thinking is still
    preoccupied by its past. Thus, not much room is left for thinking
    about the present; perhaps, a common trend for transitional periods.

    As the regional projects expand and develop further, Armenian
    non-participation increasingly turns into a limitation for integration
    in the south Caucasus as a whole and destructive isolation for Armenia
    itself. Should the current tendency of entrenching positions both in
    Baku and Yerevan continue, with time it might be even more difficult
    to bridge the differences and help Armenia to become a fully integrated
    member of the south Caucasus region.

    Comprehensive integration in the south Caucasus, thus, can be achieved
    through the formulation and acceptance of a common political identity
    based on the interests of the Caucasian states and their citizens.

    However imperfect, Azerbaijani-Georgian relations provide evidence
    for the feasibility of such integration and a model of recognition
    through the accommodation of both the interests of the individual
    states and of the entire region.

    Another important element of the partnership between Baku and Tbilisi
    is the ability to overcome mutual historic and more recent emotional
    grievances as well as an understanding that all unresolved issues
    could be addressed through bilateral negotiations. Arguably, only
    such accommodation can serve as the basis for sustainable regional
    identity. One psychological factor that seems to underpin any
    such identity is the appreciation of the Caucasus being a common
    neighborhood for all of its citizens. Without an appreciation of
    this commonality, a regional cooperative arrangement is not likely
    to be effective.

    Finally, the recent developments in the region since the events
    of 9/11 and particularly since the August 2008 conflict between
    Russian and Georgian forces have demonstrated once again that the
    geopolitical realignment of the region has not yet ended and the
    rivalry of outsiders over the region's future still continues.
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