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BAKU: Karabakh negotiations not to reach breakthrough in nearest fut

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  • BAKU: Karabakh negotiations not to reach breakthrough in nearest fut

    KARABAKH NEGOTIATIONS NOT TO REACH BREAKTHROUGH IN NEAREST FUTURE - ANALYST

    news.az
    April 30 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Sergey Markedonov News.Az interviews Sergey Markedonov, head of the
    ethnic relations department at Russia's Institute of Political and
    Military Analysis.


    By suspending ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, Armenia
    has demonstrated obstinacy in the issue of the Karabakh conflict
    through its irrational policy. However, Turkey does not want this
    issue to be considered separately from the Karabakh conflict. What
    do you think is the essence of the game of these two states and which
    role have the United States, Russia and France played in this issue?


    I do not think that these issues should be settled separately. On
    the other hand, it is difficult to settle them together, because the
    multiplication of difficulty occurs. In fact, these are different
    conflicts and theoretically, it is desirable to divide them. Every
    conflict is unique and its direct participants can reach an optimal
    solution. But in practice I do not believe that this separation is
    quite possible. We have witnessed that in the reality this process
    has started to have a greater influence on the problem around Karabakh
    and in turn the process of normalization. What is the role of the big
    countries? I wouldn't exaggerate it. Frankly speaking, I am not among
    the political scientists who see the superpowers as the main players
    in the Caucasus combinations. There are such actors, but today most
    of them have no will or resources to form the new status quo because
    the old status has collapsed during the five-day war in Georgia.


    On April 24 US President Barack Obama did not mention the issue of
    "Armenian genocide" in his speech. As is known, in anticipation of
    this day Armenians put all pressure on Turkey for this statement
    to be voiced. But this did not occur. Which means of pressure will
    Armenia use now to apply them against Turkey?


    I think today Armenia and Turkey have reached everything they could
    have reached. They cannot reach anything more. I think in this
    situation Armenia will expect any conjuncture more profitable for it.

    As for whether the United States recognizes the genocide or not,
    I think this is not the matter. The "genocide" has already been
    recognized by some countries and I do not think it is necessary for
    all countries to recognize it. For example, Jewish holocaust was not
    recognized by Iran, but will anyone state that there was no holocaust?

    No, this is an issue of interpretation. Recognition of one country is
    enough-this is a modern information world and I think the situation
    should not be exaggerated. When Armenia forms any conjuncture in this
    issue, like it was in 2008 for example, the process will go further.

    Otherwise, I think this issue will be stalled for a long time.


    The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs have recently held negotiations
    in Yerevan and Khankendi, failing to visit Baku however. By some
    information, Baku expects the Armenian side to respond on Madrid
    principles. Characterizing the last version of the Madrid principles,
    Azerbaijani FM Elmar Mammadyarov said on the first stage the Armenian
    armed forces must withdraw their troops from five regions and 13
    villages of the Lachin region. After the withdrawal of troops the
    Armenian side must restore all communications. The roads will open upon
    the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Lachin and Kelbajar. The status
    of Nagorno Karabakh will be discussed after the return of Azerbaijani
    refugees to the places of their residence. Now the Azerbaijani side
    is waiting for the response of official Yerevan. Do you think the
    Armenian leadership will agree to sign this document and will there
    be any achievements in this issue?


    I view this skeptically, because the very document of Madrid principles
    is quite raw and it has many points that contradict to each other. The
    Madrid principles have designated the sharp problems around which the
    trading is held. I think there will not be any serious breakthrough
    in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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