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Perspectives: Analysts On Stalled Armenia-Turkey Process And Prospec

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  • Perspectives: Analysts On Stalled Armenia-Turkey Process And Prospec

    PERSPECTIVES: ANALYSTS ON STALLED ARMENIA-TURKEY PROCESS AND PROSPECTS
    Gayane Lazarian

    ArmeniaNow reporter
    Analysis | 30.04.10 | 12:04

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    The botched Armenian-Turkish protocols are the product of the 2007
    secret negotiations, says an expert in Yerevan with knowledge of
    regional politics.

    "In those negotiations Turkey agreed to separate concessions and to
    improvement of relations with Armenia irrespective of relations with
    Azerbaijan. It is another question that our authorities themselves
    stated this whole process, which surprised the Turkish side," says
    independent political analyst Yervand Bozoyan, who has opposed such
    a course of normalization from the very beginning. According to him,
    the Turkish side has taken advantage of the Armenian side's weakness,
    bringing up the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh as a precondition, which
    is absent in the text of the protocols.

    "They changed their position based on the course of the process.

    However, weakness of one side in the negotiations also spoils the
    other side, from which the whole process has suffered. This is the
    most tragic element of the negotiations," he says.

    The analyst says that in the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenia cannot
    make concessions, because for Armenia these are not territorial
    matters, but a matter of security.

    "If for Azerbaijan it is a loss of land, then for us it is a matter of
    state security," says Bozoyan. "I always cite the example of Israel,
    which has seen four wars in 70 years. The Israeli elite have understood
    that if they make concessions in principle in the matter of Jerusalem,
    then other concessions will be demanded and so on, they understood
    where the limit of those concessions was."

    Another leading expert, Karen Bekaryan, says, sarcastically, that
    if Turkey deems Azerbaijan so important, then Armenia should perhaps
    talk Karabakh directly with Turkey.

    Bekaryan, who is Chairman of the European Integration organization and
    Director of Radiolur Information Programs of Public Radio, presents
    one of several scenarios.

    "We should sit and negotiate directly with Turkey, get a few regions
    in Western Armenia and think about withdrawing from territories
    in the security zone [in Karabakh]. If it is an implausible
    scenario for Turkey, in that case Turkey has nothing to do in the
    Armenian-Azerbaijani process. And it is here that the red line lies
    for Armenian diplomacy," says Bekaryan, describing a highly unlikely
    scenario to illustrate why Turkish aspirations in the Karabakh issue
    are unacceptable.

    Unlike Bozoyan, who did not welcome the format of the latest
    Armenian-Turkish negotiations, Bekaryan was among its proponents. The
    expert says, however, he does not accept sentiments often expressed by
    the Turkish elite that he says have hampered the negotiating process.

    Commenting on the recent statement by Turkish Prime Minister Recep
    Tayyip Erdogan in which he threatened to expel illegal Armenian
    migrants from Turkey, Bekaryan terms it a 'racist statement' by all
    human rights standards.

    "It would be a different thing if he said that they were starting to
    deal with illegal migrants. I'm not sure much has changed in Turkey
    since 1915," he says.

    Bekaryan also described as a threat of use of force Turkish Foreign
    Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's statement in which the latter tried to show
    why Turkey's reluctance to ratify the deal with Armenia is influenced
    by the unresolved nature of the Karabakh conflict. Davutoglu, in
    particular, portrayed a scenario in which another Armenian-Azerbaijan
    war starts two months after the Turkish-Armenian border is opened.

    "Should we close it again?" Davutoglu queried in one of recent media
    interviews.

    "There is such a thing as a threat of use of force in international
    law. What he [Davutoglu] said was the threat of using force. With
    this statement, Davutoglu supports Azerbaijan," he says.

    Expert Bozoyan does not expect any essential changes till the next
    presidential election. "I think the next authorities that will come
    to replace the current ones will start Armenian-Turkish relations
    from scratch," he says.

    Bekaryan, meanwhile, thinks that while on the state level Armenia
    should take its time, then dialogue on the level of societies should
    be boosted.
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