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  • BAKU: 'Better Turkish-Russian Relations To Create Atmosphere More Co

    'BETTER TURKISH-RUSSIAN RELATIONS TO CREATE ATMOSPHERE MORE CONDUCTIVE TO PEACE'

    news.az
    June 1 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Paul Kubicek News.Az interviews Paul Kubicek, chair of the Department
    of Political Science, Oakland University, Michigan.

    Do you share an opinion that the US is not playing so active role in
    the CIS region as it used to play in a recent past?

    I don't think the West has lost the light completely. Obviously,
    Russian influence has increased, but that does not mean that Russia
    is the final "victor" in this geopolitical competition. I don't think
    Yanukovych's victory in Ukraine puts that country in the "Russian"
    camp, as it still has European aspirations, and Georgia obviously
    wants to remain a US ally. I would expect more Russian interest in
    Azerbaijan (e.g. investments in oil and gas, inducements to ship oil
    through Russia), but nothing like in Georgia or Kyrgyzstan.

    Do you think that Russia might agree with membership of Azerbaijan
    or even Georgia in NATO?

    No, I do not. I think NATO membership for these states would disturb
    Moscow, although whether Russia could actively prevent it as another
    question. However--and Azeris may not like this--I do not foresee
    NATO membership for Azerbaijan for at least 10-15 years, at best.

    It seems that US forgot the Karabakh settlement and has changed it
    for support Armenia by various means (economic assistance, pushing
    Armenian-Turkish border issue etc). Is it happen because of influence
    of Armenian lobby or there are any other reasons?

    I think the US wants to reward both Turkey and Armenia for resolving
    their issues, hence more aid to Armenia. The Armenian lobby may play
    a role in this, but obviously it is not so strong that the US is
    recognizing the genocide of 1915.

    Do you think that Russia may use the "Georgian scenario" in Karabakh,
    other conflict zone in the South Caucasus?

    Because Karabakh does not border Russia, this seems unlikely. Plus
    Azerbaijan is not causing Russia as much trouble as Georgia did.

    However, if Azerbaijan were to try to take Karabakh by force, Russian
    intervention might be possible.

    Russia and Turkey has been developing a close collaboration, especially
    during the last 2 years. What is your opinion, may this collaboration
    be fruitful for the stability in the South Caucasus region?

    That is a good question, and I am not sure that this cooperation is
    directed at the South Caucasus. However, if relations between the
    two sides improves, they might be able to work together on regional
    issues like Karabakh. My sense is that better ties between Moscow
    and Ankara should be welcomed in the region.

    Turkey wishes to be a mediator in the Karabakh conflict. Do you believe
    that Armenia might agree with this and what kind of role can Turkey
    play in the peace process?

    I do not think that Turkey--by itself--can be the peacemaker. Armenia
    would want someone else (e.g. Russia) involved as well. Hence, better
    Turkish-Russian relations would create an atmosphere more conducive
    to peace.

    Iran recently expressed a wish to be involved in the Karabakh
    settlement. What do you think about such proposal from Iran, which
    is a great regional state but has it own big problems?

    I think Iran is looking for a way to say that it is solving problems,
    not creating them. I do not take this proposal seriously.




    From: A. Papazian
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