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ISTANBUL: A view from Yerevan

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  • ISTANBUL: A view from Yerevan

    Sunday's Zaman, Turkey
    June 27 2010

    A view from Yerevan

    AMANDA PAUL [email protected] Columnists


    I write this column from Armenia, where I have spent a week meeting
    with representatives from the government, the opposition and civil
    society. Two issues dominated the discussions: the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict and the failed rapprochement with Turkey. As one senior
    official put it, `Things are really screwed up now.'
    For Armenia the rapprochement with Turkey broke down because of
    Ankara's decision to link it to Nagorno-Karabakh. Yerevan considers
    itself blameless, saying it made big concession, with one official
    stating, `Armenia made Turkey a very generous offer, we did not even
    ask them to recognize the genocide,' but that, `once again,' Turkey
    cheated them. For Armenia this was the first time they had the
    opportunity to be a regional player and Yerevan believes that Armenia
    has proved to be a proactive rather than a reactive player and they
    have gained from the experience, including now having a far higher
    number of experts on Turkey.

    Little hope was expressed at new life being breathed into the
    rapprochement any time soon. First there will be parliamentary
    elections in Turkey in 2011 which will be followed by elections
    elsewhere in the region. While President Abdullah Gül is still viewed
    positively, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an is not. He is seen as becoming
    increasing unreliable and racist. Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu's policy of `zero
    problems with neighbors' is seen as being only partially successful,
    with suggestions that Turkey has no idea where it is heading other
    than that Turkey is trying to get the best of both worlds and
    endeavoring to be the leader of the Muslim world.

    The failed rapprochement also unhinged the Karabakh talks. On the one
    side, Armenia's leadership has felt unable to make progress in fear of
    being seen as making concessions in order to get the border with
    Turkey opened; on the other hand, it now seems that Azerbaijan feels
    cheated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
    (OSCE) Minsk Group, which has resulted in Baku upping its war
    rhetoric. In an apparent move to produce some progress in the Karabakh
    talks, the OSCE Minsk group co-chairs (Russia, US, France) produced an
    updated version of the Madrid Basic Principles in Sochi in January
    2010. Azerbaijan accepted this document, Armenia did not.

    Azerbaijan has since been insisting that this again shows Armenia's
    lack of interest in a settlement and that the international community
    should do more to push Armenia into accepting. This has not happened.
    Rather, the co-chairs re-jigged the document and represented it a few
    days ago in St. Petersburg. Azerbaijan, not surprisingly, was not
    happy. Armenia believes this led Azerbaijan to leave the meeting early
    and to the subsequent violation of the cease-fire agreement and tragic
    deaths of four Armenian and two Azerbaijani soldiers. They view this
    as Azerbaijan displaying its readiness to resort to war to get back
    the seven provinces that Armenia continues to occupy in addition to
    Nagorno-Karabakh. They also believe that Aliyev has lost control of
    his armed forces.

    The increase in military clashes has left many believing that
    Azerbaijan is planning a `short war' in light of the forthcoming
    Azerbaijani parliamentary elections. Apparently this would boost
    President Ilham Aliyev's popularity. This would be highly risky, not
    least because once a war is in the offing it would be very difficult
    (if not impossible) to limit it to a couple of days. It would escalate
    into a full-fledged bloodbath with catastrophic consequences.

    With both sides now having very advanced military technology, it is
    possible for Armenia to hit Baku and the nearby Caspian oil fields as
    well as quickly destroy pipeline infrastructure (the
    Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan [BTC] pipeline passes just 15 kilometers from the
    line of contact) and important Azerbaijani cities, including Ganja. It
    would also be easy for Azerbaijan to hit Armenia. Armenia also does
    not rule out carrying a pre-emptive strike, which they consider fair
    game if they are convinced Azerbaijan is on the verge of launching an
    attack. I am skeptical Azerbaijan would do this. Implications for the
    region would be massive, including reactions from both Russia and
    Iran, not to mention the US. There is no guarantee Baku would win;
    their international reputation would be in tatters and it could result
    in Aliyev's fall. As history has shown, all previous Azerbaijani
    presidents have been brought down by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    Armenia also believes the international community is too soft on
    Azerbaijan and continues to contribute to its isolation. One
    particular case they cite is the Nabucco gas pipeline, which would cut
    out Armenia -- as the BTC did before it. They believe that by backing
    such projects the EU is simply supporting the isolationist policies of
    Azerbaijan and Turkey. However, while Armenia continues to occupy
    around 17 percent of its neighbor's land, it is unthinkable that it
    should be allowed to take part in such initiatives.

    However, the EU, at the same time, disregards the realities on the
    ground, which is very dangerous. The EU should stop limiting itself to
    `balanced' statements and seriously discuss with both countries the
    deployment of a peacekeeping/monitoring mission in order to have
    first-hand knowledge of what is happening on the ground. Presently,
    the tiny OSCE monitoring mission is only allowed to monitor the line
    of contact with the agreement of the Azerbaijanis and Armenians and
    not on a daily basis. According to the Armenian side, this is
    something they would welcome, but Azerbaijan does not. This region is
    a time bomb waiting to explode. It is time to take action now before
    it is too late.

    27.06.2010




    From: A. Papazian
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