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  • BAKU: Russian Analyst On What Stance Russia, U.S. And Europe Will Ta

    RUSSIAN ANALYST ON WHAT STANCE RUSSIA, U.S. AND EUROPE WILL TAKE AT EARLY DAYS OF POSSIBLE HOSTILITIES IN KARABAKH

    Today
    http://www.today.az/news/politics/72876.html
    Sept 1 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Interview with famous Russian political analyst Stanislav Belkovski.

    Do you share the view of some Russian, America and Azerbaijani media
    outlets that the latest developments in the South Caucasus including
    the recent Russia-Armenia deal extending lease of Gyumri military
    base by 49 years shows that U.S. position in the region has weakened
    while that of Russia has strengthened?

    Russian-Armenian protocol extending presence of Russian military base
    in Gyumri by 49 years was almost inevitable, because both Yerevan
    and Moscow was interested in this. But Russia has no immediate
    decisions about how it will act in the event of renewed hostilities
    in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

    One can only assume that Moscow will do its utmost to prevent this
    war and the events in Kyrgyzstan showed that Russia is against
    the use of its forces outside Russia, so as not to strain the
    relations between Russians living in the states of the former USSR
    and the local population. I do not agree with the statements claming
    that U.S. influence has weakened in the region. Moreover, as to the
    Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, position of the U.S.
    and Russia coincide in this respect - both of the powers do not want
    the hostilities to renew.

    Other than war, are there any ways of restoring the territorial
    integrity of Azerbaijan, recognized by the whole world, amid a
    non-constructive position of Yerevan in a peaceful settlement of the
    Karabakh which has lasted more than fifteen years?

    The territorial conflict, as practice shows, can last very long. It
    is enough to recall situation with Northern Cyprus, which is not
    recognized by world. But there is also no a military solution to this
    conflict either, as there is no EU assistance to Cyprus in addressing
    this problem.

    As for the likelihood of a military solution to the
    Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is not a political
    issue. If Baku assesses its military superiority over the Armenian
    army as crucial, it would make sense for Azerbaijan to launch an
    operation to restore its territorial integrity. If Azerbaijan lacks
    such advantage, it is not worth to start fighting.

    And what will the position of the United States, Russia and Europe be
    in case Azerbaijan, tired of imitation of negotiations on the part
    of Armenia, will be forced to resort to military ways to liberate
    its occupied territories?

    The positions of Russia, the U.S. and Europe will be uncertain at early
    days of the military hostilities. And a lot depends on how long these
    hostilities will last. If the war is short-term, the world's leading
    powers will recognize the status quo that would emerge at the end
    of war. If this war drags on, the world's leading powers will use
    all means at their disposal to stop it and, as in the first case,
    recognize the status quo, which would evolve in the war by that time.

    I will paraphrase the question. On assistance of what allies Azerbaijan
    can rely in the event of renewed hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh?

    I once again offer to recall the situation with Cyprus. Are European
    countries allies of Cyprus? Certainly are. Do European countries offer
    Cyprus real help to solve the problem of Northern Cyprus? No, they do
    not. So, none of his allies will offer real help to Azerbaijan if the
    hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh resume. Similarly, Armenia will not
    have allies, if it carries out offensive. In the case of defensive
    action of the Armenian side, as I noted above, position of world
    powers will depend on the time length of the new Armenian-Azerbaijani
    war in Nagorno-Karabakh.




    From: A. Papazian
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