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The South Caucasus And The Russia-Turkey-Iran Geopolitical Triangle

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  • The South Caucasus And The Russia-Turkey-Iran Geopolitical Triangle

    THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND THE RUSSIA-TURKEY-IRAN GEOPOLITICAL TRIANGLE

    Eurasia Review
    Sept 8 2010

    In connection with the recent visits of Russian president Dmitry
    Medvedev to Armenia and Azerbaijan political analyst Viktor
    Nadein-Rayevsky, a senior fellow of the Russian Academy of Sciences'
    Institute of World Economy and International Relations assesses
    geopolitical situation in the region and gives his opinion on the
    ambitions of other regional powers - Turkey and Iran.

    Samir Shahbaz: What are Russia's geopolitical interests in the South
    Caucasus?

    Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky: Russia views the Caucasus security as an
    important issue. Consequently, we display caution on Nagorno-Karabakh
    issues and try to relegate them to the concerned parties, without
    dictating anything to anyone. Of course, we would like to see equitable
    and well-balanced international cooperation here. External influence
    should not upset the current balance because disruption could lead
    to unpredictable consequences. And nobody needs a new war.

    At any rate, Russia does not need such a war.

    Shahbaz: Who would be interested in disrupting today's relative
    stability in the region?

    Nadein-Rayevsky: To be honest, this question implies only those who
    are interested in strengthening their own positions and weakening the
    positions of the main regional powers, primarily Russia. I don't want
    to directly accuse any Western governments of this. But, judging by
    the actions of some non-regional players, it appears that their policy
    was aimed at upsetting the balance. At any rate, this is true of the
    developments in Georgia. Similar attempts are possible with regard to
    Azerbaijan. It appears that perfidious and dangerous information bombs
    implying that Azerbaijan planned to provide bases for U.S. forces,
    including those for operations against Iran, were not "dropped" by
    sheer coincidence. Azerbaijan emphatically denies any actions or even
    attempted actions against Iran. This is a correct stance because the
    situation might otherwise get out of control.

    Shahbaz: What do you think about the actions of the two other important
    players bordering on the region, namely, Iran and Turkey?

    Nadein-Rayevsky: Both countries have recently become visibly active
    in their own way. Previously, the Turkish policy could be perceived
    as a continuation and sharp point on the NATO "sword" in the eastern
    Mediterranean region. But the situation has now changed. The Republic
    of Turkey has long been formulating its policy in line with its
    national interests. The West, which is not used to this, frequently
    disapproves of various Turkish actions. In some cases, they even
    mention a veritable Russian-Turkish alliance which, of course, amounts
    to idle talk. Naturally, any strategic military alliance is also out
    of the question. These countries have different interests and goals.

    Nevertheless, there are common venues of cooperation, including the
    stabilization of the Caucasus.

    As far as Azerbaijanian-Turkish relations are concerned, both
    countries signed a strategically important treaty prior to Dmitry
    Medvedev's visit to Yerevan. They say Turkey voices an absolutely
    pro-Azerbaijanian stance on many issues, primarily Nagorno-Karabakh.

    To be fair, it should be noted that the Turkish Government does not
    go to extremes and acts in line with the real situation. Turkey, an
    influential regional player, hopes to obtain sizeable dividends from
    its active policy. Turkey wants to become a key energy hub for the
    transportation of energy resources to western, central, southern and
    even northern Europe. Some projects, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
    crude oil pipeline, are currently being implemented.

    Turkey also prioritizes relations with Iran because it receives
    natural gas from them. This does not always go smoothly, and acts of
    sabotage have taken place. Moreover, Turkey is seriously interested
    in developing Iranian mineral deposits. Although the United States
    reproaches and even threatens Turkey, Ankara invests in Iran. This is
    happening at a time when Washington has imposed serious sanctions on
    investment in Iran. Previously, it was forbidden to invest over $20
    million in various energy projects in Iran. And now such restrictions
    have become even more strict. Western Europe is also involved in
    these sanctions. They are assuring us that such sanctions are not
    directed against the Iranian nation's well-being. But an objective
    assessment of the situation shows that all this is empty talk. Of
    course, sanctions take their toll. By restricting gasoline exports to
    Iran, the West is dealing a serious blow against the everyday life
    of Iranians. Iran which lacks refineries has to import most of its
    petroleum. Just like Russian companies, Turkish companies have ignored
    the ban and trade with Iranians. Although Turkey is a NATO member,
    it has not joined the sanctions, continues to improve relations with
    Iran and maintains permanent bilateral contacts. However, Western
    conjecture about an Iranian-Turkish alliance and some kind of Islamic
    solidarity are groundless. Both countries preach Shia and Sunni Islam.

    However, Shia Muslims account for 8% of the Turkish population,
    Shia Islam is not popular in Turkey. So, any talk of Islamic unity
    is far-fetched. But economic interests are an important factor. And
    Turkey is willing to facilitate Iranian oil and gas transits via its
    territory, although much remains to be done in this respect.

    Speaking of Iran's interests in the Caucasus, Tehran has
    repeatedly offered its services in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict. Iran is willing to act as a mediator in this area. Iran
    maintains a sufficiently cautious policy which is non-hostile toward
    Armenia. This could be expected in connection with good-neighborly
    Iranian-Azerbaijanian relations. Moreover, Iran trades with Armenia,
    supplying gas and building railroads together with transport monopoly
    Russian Railways.




    From: A. Papazian
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