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  • Command Has To Yield

    COMMAND HAS TO YIELD

    Lragir.am
    05 Oct 2010

    In an interview with "Irates de facto", political analyst Igor
    Muradyan said he does not think the 1994 victory in the Karabakh
    war is brilliant, because the Armenian troops, stopping attempts by
    Azerbaijan to make a change in the course of hostilities, did not
    establish control over the greater part of Karabakh. NKR army failed
    to return Shahumyan and the lowland Karabakh territory, lost control
    of the major Horadiz node. In these circumstances, we cannot say that
    the assertions about the need to complete the work, are unacceptable,
    said Igor Muradyan. (In his recent articles he sounded the forecast
    that the only way out for Armenia may become a new war). The Armenian
    armed forces did not aim to reach the Kura, but it could enable to
    be successful in politics, the analyst believes. He believes that
    then unskillful figures were engaged in Armenia's diplomacy, and the
    army was commanded by non-professionals, and for the past 15 years,
    Armenia has pursued ineffective foreign policy.

    "The problem of foreign policy consists in the fact that it has always
    been directed to the satisfaction of interests and security of the
    political leadership and their environment", says Igor Muradyan. In
    the Karabakh settlement, Armenia adopted a waiting position, and
    does not promote any tasks in the international arena. All actions
    of Armenia are determined by some challenges and threats. Armenia
    rejected NKR international recognition: the political leadership
    has never had such a desire. Issues connected with Karabakhi lost
    territories, Armenian refugees and Azerbaijan's aggressive behavior
    were removed from the agenda. Armenia undertook its relationship
    with Turkey, not realizing until the end the true purposes of their
    authors, and allowed Turkey to become a member of Karabakh process,
    said Igor Muradyan. Having a lot of resources and ways to ensure the
    security of Armenia, it has replaced its own defense with unclear
    relations with Russia. Armenia did not take preventive measures,
    and now Azerbaijan, in fact, started a slow war against Karabakh,
    trying to force Armenia to make concessions.

    The political scientist thinks that the international situation in
    the current moment is quite expedient for Armenia and partially for
    Karabakh. All world centers - U.S., Russia, Iran - support Armenia,
    which is rendered into a serious factor in repressing the Turkish
    expansion. Turkey is isolated now, says Igor Muradyan. In Armenia
    everything is ensured for normal life. Azerbaijan is rendered into a
    "kerosene barrel" and every time it is warned that starting a war, it
    will lose more than the territories. The fact that Azerbaijan cannot
    exist within the present borders is set not only in regional projects,
    but also in the general doctrine of redrawing of world borders, says
    Igor Muradyan. Many do not connect long-term plans with Azerbaijan.
    This nation is destined to lose not only its state but also its
    homeland, says Igor Muradyan. Azerbaijan must either come to terms
    with the loss of new territories or be contented with something on
    what it has no rights, or become a satellite of Turkey and disappear
    in the clashes that would arise as a result of the Turkish elite's
    imperial ambitions.

    But if Armenia will not be initiative, once it will lose the status of
    geopolitical factor. The statement of the "Big three" could absolutely
    deprive Azerbaijan of hope and be quite different if the Armenian
    diplomacy was more active and more intelligent, says Igor Muradyan.

    Armenia has stated that the acceptable settlement of the conflict for
    it will be the version in which NKR is recognized as an independent
    state, a land connection with Armenia is provided and international
    security guarantees are given. And experts refer to this arguing that
    in this context, the OSCE Madrid principles fully meet the interests of
    Armenia. But the proposed format of the Armenian leadership does not
    provide security not only for Nagorno-Karabakh, but also for Armenia,
    said Igor Muradyan.

    The political scientist thinks that probability of resumption of
    hostilities is determined by the existence of agreements between
    Azerbaijan and Turkey which is impossible now. Turkey can be interested
    in a war with Karabakh if it feels strict isolation and decides to show
    its role in the region. "Azerbaijan chose the tactic of "small" wars-
    diversion attacks, provocations and this will sooner or later bring
    about a war, but started by Armenia. Of course, if Armenia is sure that
    war is not the worst thing, and there is hope for a final victory. Not
    the one who is ready for war, but the one who starts it will win,
    said Igor Muradyan. In addition, there are two versions of the war:
    if Turkey is interested or if Turkey is not interested. Armenia's
    military command did great services to the motherland, but it's time
    to give up its place.

    "The Armenian leadership, with an amazing sequence, is struggling with
    any initiative in Karabakh and the Diaspora", says Igor Muradyan.
    Moreover, the problems that Armenia faces turned out worse than
    the power expected. Armenia faces the task of becoming an important
    regional factor and a major partner of the world's centers. This is
    possible if "the Armenian network", the capacity of which exceeds the
    capabilities of some states, reorganizes. Several states are trying
    to neutralize the influence of the Armenian network. They fail, but
    the Armenian reality is not trying to reorganize the structure of the
    network. We lose time, do not set specific targets, but there is the
    premise that new structures that are being created will begin a more
    extensive and effective work.




    From: A. Papazian
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