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"OSCE SUMMIT IN ASTANA HARDLY TO MARK BREAKTHROUGH IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT"
Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/75006.html
Oct 14 2010
Azerbaijan
It does not worth to expect from the Astana summit in December certain
decisions, that will change the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh,
Alexei Vlasov, deputy dean of the Faculty of History at the Moscow
State University, a member of Trend Expert Council, said.
"Kanat Saudabayev, the OSCE chairman in-office, has repeatedly
attempted to advance the idea of a road map of conflict settlement
on the Caucasus. However, Kazakhstan's initiative does not have real
outcomes," Vlasov, editor-in-chief of analytical information portal
Vestnik Kavkaza (Bulletin of the Caucasus), told Trend journalists
at a meeting today.
He said the OSCE summit in Astana will focus on economic security,
national minorities and the OSCE reform, aimed at a more dynamic and
effective response of the organization to new risks and challenges.
"It would be a great optimism to expect new breakthrough solutions
to Nagorno-Karabakh to be prepared for the summit," Vlasov said.
Vlasov said one can expect the situation to change in 2011 under
certain circumstances.
Vlasov said the mediators of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement
understand that public discontent is growing in Azerbaijan. The talks
to return back territories adjoining Nagorno-Karabakh will be resumed
in 2011.
"Time will tell whether the rumors will be justified and whether
the mediators will convince Yerevan that such steps are necessary,"
Vlasov said.
He said that the mediators, in particular Russia, and foreign players
such as Turkey, are solving the dilemma whether to move from stalemate
in the Nagorno-Karabakh or to leave everything at the level of virtual
challenge. Much depends on how the situation will evolve over Iran,
political analyst said.
"If the U.S. decides to solve Iran's problem in 2011, the issue of
Nagorno-Karabakh will remain. If everything is limited by diplomatic
and economic pressure on Iran and world powers wish to demonstrate that
they are able to achieve settlement of the problems through the talks,
then, perhaps, we will see concessions from Yerevan by late 2011,"
Vlasov said.
He said that it does not worth exaggerating the influence of Turkey
on the conflict, given the internal divisions in the country.
"Turkish authorities have not determined their foreign policy yet,
therefore, the Armenian issue was inscribed for Ankara in a more
general context of Turkey's role in Central Asia, the Caucasus and
the Caspian Sea in the nearest future. Turkey still prefers to use
tactical decisions without declaring its strategy. Therefore, the
possibilities to put pressure on Armenia are limited," he said.
Vlasov said that it is necessary to understand that it does not worth
to expect changes in the structure and format of Nagorno-Karabakh talks
in the nearest future because it will take much time and it will turn
out that specific decisions are postponed for an indefinite period.
From: A. Papazian
Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/75006.html
Oct 14 2010
Azerbaijan
It does not worth to expect from the Astana summit in December certain
decisions, that will change the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh,
Alexei Vlasov, deputy dean of the Faculty of History at the Moscow
State University, a member of Trend Expert Council, said.
"Kanat Saudabayev, the OSCE chairman in-office, has repeatedly
attempted to advance the idea of a road map of conflict settlement
on the Caucasus. However, Kazakhstan's initiative does not have real
outcomes," Vlasov, editor-in-chief of analytical information portal
Vestnik Kavkaza (Bulletin of the Caucasus), told Trend journalists
at a meeting today.
He said the OSCE summit in Astana will focus on economic security,
national minorities and the OSCE reform, aimed at a more dynamic and
effective response of the organization to new risks and challenges.
"It would be a great optimism to expect new breakthrough solutions
to Nagorno-Karabakh to be prepared for the summit," Vlasov said.
Vlasov said one can expect the situation to change in 2011 under
certain circumstances.
Vlasov said the mediators of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement
understand that public discontent is growing in Azerbaijan. The talks
to return back territories adjoining Nagorno-Karabakh will be resumed
in 2011.
"Time will tell whether the rumors will be justified and whether
the mediators will convince Yerevan that such steps are necessary,"
Vlasov said.
He said that the mediators, in particular Russia, and foreign players
such as Turkey, are solving the dilemma whether to move from stalemate
in the Nagorno-Karabakh or to leave everything at the level of virtual
challenge. Much depends on how the situation will evolve over Iran,
political analyst said.
"If the U.S. decides to solve Iran's problem in 2011, the issue of
Nagorno-Karabakh will remain. If everything is limited by diplomatic
and economic pressure on Iran and world powers wish to demonstrate that
they are able to achieve settlement of the problems through the talks,
then, perhaps, we will see concessions from Yerevan by late 2011,"
Vlasov said.
He said that it does not worth exaggerating the influence of Turkey
on the conflict, given the internal divisions in the country.
"Turkish authorities have not determined their foreign policy yet,
therefore, the Armenian issue was inscribed for Ankara in a more
general context of Turkey's role in Central Asia, the Caucasus and
the Caspian Sea in the nearest future. Turkey still prefers to use
tactical decisions without declaring its strategy. Therefore, the
possibilities to put pressure on Armenia are limited," he said.
Vlasov said that it is necessary to understand that it does not worth
to expect changes in the structure and format of Nagorno-Karabakh talks
in the nearest future because it will take much time and it will turn
out that specific decisions are postponed for an indefinite period.
From: A. Papazian