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FOREX CLUB Projection: GDP Growth To Be 3.7% By End Of Year

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  • FOREX CLUB Projection: GDP Growth To Be 3.7% By End Of Year

    FOREX CLUB PROJECTION: GDP GROWTH TO BE 3.7% BY END OF YEAR

    ARKA
    November 1, 2010
    YEREVAN

    YEREVAN, November 1. /ARKA/. GDP growth is to be 3.7% by the end of
    this year, analyst of FOREX CLUB Michael Verdyan said. According to
    the state budget, GDP growth is expected to be at 1.2% in Armenia
    this year.

    A quite steady growth rate is recorded in the economy of the country,
    Verdyan told a press conference in "Novosti" International press
    center Monday.

    According to the statistics, gross domestic product grew 2.8% up to
    2,386.7 billion drams in Armenia in January-September as compared to
    the same period of last year.

    According to Verdyan, industry, transport & communication and trade
    are to become the main sectors in the forefront of economic recovery.

    Growth reached in these sectors over the first 9 months of 2010 was
    10.96%, 18.7% and 8.6% respectively.

    Verdyan pointed out that the crisis led to a GDP slump in Armenia
    that was on over five quarters. The GDP drop started in the fourth
    quarter of 2008 and peaked in the third quarter of 2009, and, finally,
    it reached 15.1%, the expert said. The main sectors contributing to
    the slump were construction (42.3% decline in 2009) and trade (4%
    decline), Verdyan added.

    According to the statistics, 14.4% economic decline was recorded in
    Armenia in 2009.

    Lack of traditionally available loan funds was the main reason for
    the decline in the mentioned sectors, Verdyan said. Industrial growth
    rates had dropped 12.68% by the end of 2008 because of the reduced
    internal and external demand in the country, he said.

    According to the expert, all the mentioned factors contributed
    to plummeting exports and private transfers, as well as to abrupt
    devaluation of dram in 2009.

    Main factors scotching the economic growth are high inflation rates,
    economic decline in agriculture and comparatively high level of
    Armenia's national debt, Verdyan said.

    7.9% inflation was recorded in Armenia in January-October this year
    as compared to the same period of last year. According to the state
    budget, inflation is to be at 4% (±1.5%) in Armenia by the end of 2010.

    Aggregate agricultural and fishing output totaled 434.4 billion drams
    (in current prices) in Armenia in January-September, a reduction of
    17.7% compared to the level of the same period of the year before.

    Total national debt of Armenia was 1.259 trillion as of the end
    of June.

    According to the preliminary information of the country's Ministry
    of Finance, internal debt of Armenia is about 146.5 billion drams
    and the external debt is 1,112.6 billion drams or $3,027.4 mln.

    ($1=358.21drams).




    From: A. Papazian
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