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  • Turkey's Policy Towards Armenia And Energy Security In The South Cau

    TURKEY'S POLICY TOWARDS ARMENIA AND ENERGY SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

    http://www.turkishpolicy.com/dosyalar/files/117-120.pdf

    Armenia - Turkey rapprochement is important not only for alternative
    regional energy solutions but also for the establishment of peace
    and stability in the Caucasus. The United States, in the context
    of President Obama's policies emphasizing engagement rather than
    confrontation, has encouraged Turkey to refrain from isolating
    Armenia. The West is by now convinced that Azerbaijan cannot serve as
    an alternative to Russia for natural gas supplies. One reason for this
    is Azerbaijan's small production volume. Another is the instability
    of the transit route, highlighted again by the August 2008 "South
    Ossetia War".

    * Hakob Chakryan is a Political Analyst for the Armenian daily,
    Azg. He is also the resident expert for the Urban Foundation for
    Sustainable Development.

    Hakob Chakryan * 118 VOLUME 9 NUMBER 2 HAKOB CHAKRYAN ince 1991,
    Turkish foreign policy towards Armenia has negated Armenian diplomatic
    attempts to normalize relations with Turkey. The main obstacle is
    Turkey placing pre-conditions for normalization (i.e.

    that Armenia must refrain from Armenian Genocide recognition claims,
    and recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as inalienable part of Azerbaijan),
    which are incompatible with the basic principles of international
    relations. Thus, bilateral attempts to normalize relations have
    resulted in deadlock.

    The need to resolve this deadlock gave international actors an
    opportunity to intervene in the Armenian-Turkish normalization
    process. However, the involvement of the United States, the European
    Union, and Russia in this issue has spontaneously drawn Turkey and
    Armenia deeper into the uncompromising contest between these larger
    powers for influence in South Caucasus. As a result, Armenian and
    Turkish sides eventually accepted a normalization process with which
    neither side was completely comfortable.

    1 The South Ossetia War of August 2008 changed the balance
    of power in the South Caucasus and seriously affected the
    aforementioned rivalry. On its face, this was a Russian-Georgian
    confrontation. However, it needs to be better understood as Russia's
    response to the West's assistance to Georgia, resulted with Russia's
    recognition of Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence.

    The fallout of the conflict led to unprecedented growth of Russia's
    military and political influence in the South Caucasus. The U.S. policy
    towards the South Caucasus is on the verge of failure by virtue of
    Russia's actions. Georgia is paralyzed and is no longer a reliable
    partner for the U.S. The post-conflict situation rendered the energy
    transit routes stretching through the territory of Georgia less
    secure. The West is by now convinced that Azerbaijan cannot serve
    as an alternative to Russia for natural gas supplies. One reason for
    this is Azerbaijan's small production volume.

    Another is the instability of the transit route, highlighted again
    by the August 2008 "South Ossetia war". Compounding the problem
    is Azerbaijan's tendency to change allegiance during the course of
    events. For example, it was pro-West during the presidency of Abulfaz
    Elchibey, the pro Russia under Haydar Aliyev, then again pro West
    under Ilham Aliyev, who, in the wake of the South Ossetia conflict
    has immediately sought closer ties with Russia.

    2 Such developments call into question the United States' political
    calculation to use Georgia as a transit corridor to international
    markets for Azerbaijani oil and gas, as well as using it as a base
    for controlling the strategically important Black Sea and 1 Armen
    Manvelyan, "Competition of International Forces for the Caspian
    Sea Basin Energy Resources and the South Caucasus in 1991-2007",
    Yerevan, 2010.

    2 Hakob Chakryan, "The Task of the State Secretary was Counterbalancing
    Russia's Influence in South Caucasus," 7 July 2010, http://
    hishatakaran.livejournal.com/19015.html TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY
    www.turkishpolicy.com 119 TURKEY - ARMENIA RELATIONS Caspian Sea
    basins. Thus, Russia, in its rivalry with the United States, has
    gained the upper hand in gaining further influence in the South
    Caucasus. In addition, the strategic significance of Armenia as an
    ally has increased for both the U.S and Russia.

    The imperative to regain its position in the South Caucasus has
    led the U.S. to invigorate its efforts to have closer ties with
    Armenia. An indication of this effort was the active involvement
    of the U.S. in latest rounds of the Turkish Armenian normalization
    process, which included talks on opening of the border between the
    two countries. In this light, a number of developments indicating
    a warming up of Armenian-Turkish relations were not surprising,
    including the announcement by the Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan on
    the initiation of a "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform",
    3 a plan which includes a visit of the President Abdullah Gul to
    Yerevan; signing of Armenian-Turkish Protocols in Switzerland and a
    return visit to Turkey by the Armenian President, Serge Sargsyan.

    These developments certainly were influenced by the new situation
    being forged in the region whose main motives were the following:
    * The U.S. President Obama's policies aimed at mitigating military
    tensions in the Middle East; * The U.S.'s encouragement, as part of
    its policy of engagement with the Muslim world, of Turkey to actively
    work to establish peace and stability in the region; * The failure of
    Turkey's policy towards Armenia which has been pur sued since 1991; *
    The incompatibility of Turkey's new role with its policy of isolating
    Armenia from regional initiatives and energy projects.

    The impetus for Armenian-Turkish reconciliation reached beyond the
    frame of bilateral relations between the two countries. It touched
    upon American, European, and Russian rivalry in the South Caucasus and
    affected their respective regional policies; and it also dealt with
    the issues of energy security, efficiency of energy and transportation
    projects. All of these factors led to "reconciliation" becoming an
    issue of great regional significance.

    As part of this wider process, it would appear that Georgia would be
    compelled to reconsider its positions towards Armenia, Azerbaijan,
    and Turkey; and Turkey, whether desired or not, would reconsider
    its priorities regarding its relations with Azerbaijan. Obviously,
    if Turkey gives more importance to its relations with Armenia, then
    Azerbaijan's ability to threaten Armenia -with the unconditional
    support of Turkey- would be greatly constrained.

    3 Hakob Chakryan, Press Conference in Yerevan, PanArmenian.net,
    19 August 2009.

    120 VOLUME 9 NUMBER 2 Perhaps, regional significance of
    Armenian-Turkish "reconciliation" contributed to the interest shown
    in this process by the U.S. and EU, as well as Russia for no other
    reason than not willing to be left out. It seemed that Ankara did
    take into consideration international interests deriving from the
    regional significance of "reconciliation" of the two countries,
    which were the main catalysts of this process.

    Therefore, it would demonstrate commitment to the Protocols
    on establishing diplomatic and other bilateral relations with
    Armenia. However, the pre-conditions set forth by Turkey related
    to Nagorno-Karabakh and Genocide issues were more stringent than
    expected. Thus, Armenian-Turkish reconciliation process reverted to
    its base line.

    The implication of this reversion is one of increased tension
    in the South Caucasus, which already contained ample grounds for
    conflict. Any aggravation of tensions in the South Caucasus should
    bother not only Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, but also international
    actors which have made large-scale investments in energy projects;
    particularly the pipelines Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Erzurum, and
    Baku-Supra, all of which run near the borders of Nagorno-Karabakh
    or the Armenian-populated Javagheti region of Georgia and generate
    tension in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.

    At first glance, it seems that Armenia has been left out of regional
    energy projects.

    But in fact, it has resources which could make it an important
    player. As a transit country, Armenia is a worthy alternative to
    Georgia. In addition, Armenia is implementing several joint projects
    with the Islamic Republic of Iran, such as a hydro-power station
    which is being constructed on the Aras River, and the Iranian-
    Armenian oil pipeline.

    4 By implementing these projects, Armenia will receive additional
    electricity, as well as oil below international prices. Also, it
    will become a transit country connecting Persian Gulf harbors with
    the Black Sea through its highway and railway systems.

    Thus, even though it has been left out of the energy projects
    conceived by Turkey and the West, it has not been left completely on
    the sidelines.

    Moreover, for Armenia, Iran is preferable to Turkey as a partner
    for energy projects because Iran is a major producer of oil and gas,
    unlike the latter which is only a transit country. In the absence of
    normalized relations with Turkey, Armenia is left with no alternative
    but to cling to Russia and wait for the improvement of U.S. - Iran
    relations.

    HAKOB CHAKRYAN The imperative to regain its position in the South
    Caucasus has led the U.S.

    to invigorate its efforts to have closer ties with Armenia.

    4 Fikret Ertan," İran-Ermenistan ilişkileri
    gittikce gelişiyor"[Iran-Armenia relations
    are improving], Samanyolu Haber, 18 July 2010,
    http://www.samanyoluhaber.com/y_435331_fikret-ertan-iran-ermenistan-iliskileri-gittikce-gelisiyor.html




    From: A. Papazian
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