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TURKEY'S NEW THREAT ASSESSMENT: A CHALLENGE FOR WASHINGTON
Ammon News
http://en.ammonnews.net/article.aspx?articleNO=10469
Nov 3 2010
Jordan
Turkey's dramatic announcement that it revised the list of countries
which it believes threatens its national security (a list alternatively
known as the "Red Book") confirms Ankara's strategic drift away from
the West and greater embrace of Iran and other states hostile to
the U.S.
Turkey's top-secret national security policy document (known by its
Turkish abbreviation MGSB), or the Red Book, lists Turkey's perceived
domestic and external threats. It is regularly updated by the National
Security Council, formerly chaired by a general, but as of recently
under the control of the ruling Islamist AK Party (AKP).
Under the AKP, the "Red Book" just underwent its most drastic changes
since the document was first issued in 1980. These alterations,
which are established behind closed doors, prove the ascent of Turkish
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's "neo-Ottoman" geopolitical approach
and the continuation of a staunchly anti-Israeli foreign policy.
The newest version, leaked to the pro-government media, is
revolutionary. Turkey has removed Russia, which in 2008 occupied
one-quarter of its neighbor and friend Georgia's territory, from
its list of critical threats. Earlier, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan offered his counterpart Vladimir Putin a "Caucasus Stability
and Cooperation Platform", a condominium that would include Russia
and the three South Caucasus states, but not the U.S., EU member
states, or Iran-without consulting or even warning Washington or
European capitals.
Instead, over the least eight years, Turkey and Russia developed a
strategic and energy partnerships, which provide Turkey with over 60
percent of its energy, and extensive trade ties. Turkey also removed
its neighbor Armenia from the list of adversaries, despite the ongoing
blockade of Armenia's border.
Along with Russia, Turkey removed Iraq and Syria from the list. Iraq
is unstable and is a base for Kurdish irredentism and PKK, al-Qaeda
and Shiite Hezbollah terrorism, while Syria is a long-time state
sponsor of terrorism, including Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas.
Iran, with its highly suspicious nuclear program, a ballistic missile
arsenal, vitriolic rhetoric denying Israel's right to exist, and
propaganda aimed against the United States, has allegedly been
removed from Turkey's list of critical threats. his new list,
combined with Turkey's proposed partnership with Iran and Brazil
to facilitate Iran's uranium enrichment, and Turkey's vote against
U.N. anti-Iranian sanctions indicate Ankara choice of Iran as a
preferred partner and ally, Finally, Turkey has put the former
strategic and trade partner Israel at the forefront of the list as
a "severe threat." Turkish-Israeli relations have been in a steep
decline since Prime Minister Erdogan's verbal assault on the dovish
Israeli elder statesman, President Shimon Peres at the Davos World
Economic Summit in January 2009.
Unfortunately, in May, 2010, the AKP government supported the
Islamist IHH organization's flotilla in support of Hamas in Gaza. A
botched Israeli action against the MEVI MARMARA, the lead ship of the
flotilla, in which nine Turkish pro-Palestinian Islamists were killed
after attacking the Israeli force, gave Turkey a pretext to quickly
unravel the carefully weaved ties with Israel. Recently, according
to Turkish and Israeli media reports, Hakan Fidan, Director of MIT,
Turkey's intelligence service, ordered to cease cooperation with
Mossad, Israeli foreign intelligence. There are indications Turkey
is expanding cooperation with Iran.
The addition of Israel to the "Red Book," coupled with Turkey's
allegation that Israel's actions may prompt a Middle Eastern arms
race, delivered a decisive blow to what remained of Turkish-Israeli
relations. Turkey showed its hostility to staunch US ally Israel with
other measures as well - a "strategic partnership" between Turkey and
Syria, and Ankara's alleged military supply agreement with Hezbollah.
During last week's discussions over a new NATO missile defense shield,
Ankara demanded that non-NATO members (primarily Israel) could have
no access to intelligence gained through the missile shield's radar
system, to which the U.S. reportedly agreed.
Turkey's contributions to the Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns and
desire to be a part of NATO missile defense program are laudable, but
many questions have been raised about Turkey foreign policy since the
AKP has taken over. Regardless of Davutoglu's stated goals, such as
"zero problems with neighbors," the new Turkish foreign policy is
distancing Turkey's long time friends and creating a challenge and
a headache for the U.S.
The Obama Administration should express a grave concern over Turkey's
foreign policy trajectory, as relations with Iran and Israeli have
become a litmus test for Turkish foreign policy course. The U.S.
Government should offer incentives, but should also apply more pressure
to deter Turkey from growing closer to Iran.
Washington should insist on a Turkish-Israeli rapprochement-including
the vital intelligence sharing regarding the Iranian threat. This is
a strategic priority the White House cannot ignore.
From: A. Papazian
Ammon News
http://en.ammonnews.net/article.aspx?articleNO=10469
Nov 3 2010
Jordan
Turkey's dramatic announcement that it revised the list of countries
which it believes threatens its national security (a list alternatively
known as the "Red Book") confirms Ankara's strategic drift away from
the West and greater embrace of Iran and other states hostile to
the U.S.
Turkey's top-secret national security policy document (known by its
Turkish abbreviation MGSB), or the Red Book, lists Turkey's perceived
domestic and external threats. It is regularly updated by the National
Security Council, formerly chaired by a general, but as of recently
under the control of the ruling Islamist AK Party (AKP).
Under the AKP, the "Red Book" just underwent its most drastic changes
since the document was first issued in 1980. These alterations,
which are established behind closed doors, prove the ascent of Turkish
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's "neo-Ottoman" geopolitical approach
and the continuation of a staunchly anti-Israeli foreign policy.
The newest version, leaked to the pro-government media, is
revolutionary. Turkey has removed Russia, which in 2008 occupied
one-quarter of its neighbor and friend Georgia's territory, from
its list of critical threats. Earlier, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan offered his counterpart Vladimir Putin a "Caucasus Stability
and Cooperation Platform", a condominium that would include Russia
and the three South Caucasus states, but not the U.S., EU member
states, or Iran-without consulting or even warning Washington or
European capitals.
Instead, over the least eight years, Turkey and Russia developed a
strategic and energy partnerships, which provide Turkey with over 60
percent of its energy, and extensive trade ties. Turkey also removed
its neighbor Armenia from the list of adversaries, despite the ongoing
blockade of Armenia's border.
Along with Russia, Turkey removed Iraq and Syria from the list. Iraq
is unstable and is a base for Kurdish irredentism and PKK, al-Qaeda
and Shiite Hezbollah terrorism, while Syria is a long-time state
sponsor of terrorism, including Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas.
Iran, with its highly suspicious nuclear program, a ballistic missile
arsenal, vitriolic rhetoric denying Israel's right to exist, and
propaganda aimed against the United States, has allegedly been
removed from Turkey's list of critical threats. his new list,
combined with Turkey's proposed partnership with Iran and Brazil
to facilitate Iran's uranium enrichment, and Turkey's vote against
U.N. anti-Iranian sanctions indicate Ankara choice of Iran as a
preferred partner and ally, Finally, Turkey has put the former
strategic and trade partner Israel at the forefront of the list as
a "severe threat." Turkish-Israeli relations have been in a steep
decline since Prime Minister Erdogan's verbal assault on the dovish
Israeli elder statesman, President Shimon Peres at the Davos World
Economic Summit in January 2009.
Unfortunately, in May, 2010, the AKP government supported the
Islamist IHH organization's flotilla in support of Hamas in Gaza. A
botched Israeli action against the MEVI MARMARA, the lead ship of the
flotilla, in which nine Turkish pro-Palestinian Islamists were killed
after attacking the Israeli force, gave Turkey a pretext to quickly
unravel the carefully weaved ties with Israel. Recently, according
to Turkish and Israeli media reports, Hakan Fidan, Director of MIT,
Turkey's intelligence service, ordered to cease cooperation with
Mossad, Israeli foreign intelligence. There are indications Turkey
is expanding cooperation with Iran.
The addition of Israel to the "Red Book," coupled with Turkey's
allegation that Israel's actions may prompt a Middle Eastern arms
race, delivered a decisive blow to what remained of Turkish-Israeli
relations. Turkey showed its hostility to staunch US ally Israel with
other measures as well - a "strategic partnership" between Turkey and
Syria, and Ankara's alleged military supply agreement with Hezbollah.
During last week's discussions over a new NATO missile defense shield,
Ankara demanded that non-NATO members (primarily Israel) could have
no access to intelligence gained through the missile shield's radar
system, to which the U.S. reportedly agreed.
Turkey's contributions to the Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns and
desire to be a part of NATO missile defense program are laudable, but
many questions have been raised about Turkey foreign policy since the
AKP has taken over. Regardless of Davutoglu's stated goals, such as
"zero problems with neighbors," the new Turkish foreign policy is
distancing Turkey's long time friends and creating a challenge and
a headache for the U.S.
The Obama Administration should express a grave concern over Turkey's
foreign policy trajectory, as relations with Iran and Israeli have
become a litmus test for Turkish foreign policy course. The U.S.
Government should offer incentives, but should also apply more pressure
to deter Turkey from growing closer to Iran.
Washington should insist on a Turkish-Israeli rapprochement-including
the vital intelligence sharing regarding the Iranian threat. This is
a strategic priority the White House cannot ignore.
From: A. Papazian