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BAKU: Mafia Analogy For Aliyev Dynasty: Ilham Aliyev And Corleone Br

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  • BAKU: Mafia Analogy For Aliyev Dynasty: Ilham Aliyev And Corleone Br

    MAFIA ANALOGY FOR ALIYEV DYNASTY: ILHAM ALIYEV AND CORLEONE BROTHERS (WIKILEAKS)

    AzeriReport
    http://azerireport.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2506&Ite mid=42
    Dec 2 2010
    WASHINGTON

    In US diplomatic cables newly released by Wikileaks, Aliyev clan~Rs
    rule over Azerbaijan is compared to mafia, specifically to the
    Corleones family in the famous ~SGodfather~T movie series. Ilham
    Aliyev himself ~Sdescribed alternately as a mix of "Michael" and
    "Sonny." Maintaining ~Sa clever, realistic foreign policy~T that
    he inherited from his father, he reminds of the cold-calculated
    alliance builder Michael Corleone. But his domestic policies, with
    crude retaliation against even minor challenges to his authority and
    criticism, resemble the ~Sbrash, impulsive~T Sonny Corleone.

    The transcripts give and explaination for the total suppression of
    democracy and dissent in Azerbaijan: ~S[Ilham] Aliyev takes the
    actions he does in order to eliminate even the semblance of risk
    to his political prominence. His goal appears to be a political
    environment in which the Aliyev dynasty is unchallenged~T. Do his
    repressive domestic policies reflect his real personality and free
    choice, or are they the result his insecurity and reliance on ~Sthe
    advice of old-line Soviet-style political figures carried forward
    from his father's administration.~T

    Continuing the mafia analogy, Ramiz Mehdiyev, the head of
    presidential administration under both father and son Aliyevs, is
    compared unfavorably to the loyal Corleone consigliere Tom Hagen,
    with Mehdiyev lacking Hagen~Rs calm, conciliating qualities. The
    cable further raises a question of who is the puppet or who the
    puppet-master in Ramiz Mehdiyev~Rs relation with Ilham Aliyev.

    The transcripts discount Ilham Aliyev~Rs pronouncements about
    Azerbaijan's right to liberate it~Rs territories in Karabakh
    illegally occupied by Armenia as a mere ~Sbluster~T, and note that
    the Azerbaijani President ~Sdeveloped a reportedly good rapport with
    Armenian President Sargsian~T.

    Below is the full text of the cable transcripts:

    DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, DAS KAIDANOW

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2034 TAGS: PGOV PREL AJ RU TU AM SUBJECT:
    PRESIDENT ILHAM ALIYEV - MICHAEL (CORLEONE) ON THE OUTSIDE, SONNY ON
    THE INSIDE

    REF: A. BAKU 724 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. BAKU 534 ¶C. 08 BAKU 1136 ¶D. BAKU
    526 AND PREVIOUS ¶E. BAKU 696 AND PREVIOUS ¶F. BAKU 287

    Classified By: Charge Donald Lu, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

    ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev utilizes
    distinctly different approaches to foreign and domestic policies. He
    typically devises the former with pragmatism, restraint and a helpful
    bias toward integration with the West, yet at home his policies
    have become increasingly authoritarian and hostile to diversity of
    political views. This divergence of approaches, combined with his
    father's continuing omnipresence, has led some observers to compare
    the Aliyevs with the fictional "Corleones" of Godfather fame, with
    the current president described alternately as a mix of "Michael"
    and "Sonny."

    Either way, this Michael/Sonny dichotomy complicates our approach
    to Baku and has the unfortunate effect of framing what should be a
    strategically valuable relationship as a choice between U.S. interests
    and U.S. values. End Summary.

    ¶2. (S/NF) This striking aspect of President Ilham Aliyev's governing
    style was very neatly summed up recently by the witty, but somewhat
    past-his-prime XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX (protect). Commenting on
    the GOAJ's harsh reaction to the YouTube "donkey video" (Reftel A),
    XXXXXXXXXXXX quipped to the Charge that what one must understand about
    Aliyev, "He's not Michael Corleone, he's Sonny." To some in Baku,
    XXXXXXXXXXXX Godfather analogy seems apt - capturing essential truths
    not only about Ilham Aliyev, but his father Heydar, who becomes by
    implication the "Vito Corleone" of Azerbaijan. With that in mind,
    this cable attempts to explain who Ilham Aliyev is and why he does
    what h does. Aside from XXXXXXXXXXXX analogy, it also owe much to the
    appraisals of Michael and Sonny from "The Godfather Doctrine (2008),"
    by John Hulsman and A. Wess Mitchell.

    "That's my family, Kay. It's not me."

    ---------------------------------------

    ¶3. (C) Ilham Aliyev inherited a newly independent, resource-rich
    state, brought to order in the post-Soviet era by this father,
    Heydar Aliyev, scarred by a catastrophic war with Armenia that
    resulted in occupation of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and seven
    surrounding Azerbaijani regions. He assumed the presidency in 2003,
    concurrent with his father's death, in an election marked by a lack
    of competition and debate, at a time when Azerbaijan's re-developed
    oil and gas resources were being brought on line for export. Dogged
    by widespread doubts about his suitability for leadership based
    on his age (then 41), lack of achievements and a "playboy" image,
    he oversaw the launch of a one million-barrels-per-day oil pipeline,
    which has flooded official and unofficial coffers in Baku and serves
    as the financial backbone of the country.

    ¶4. (C) The President and his cohorts, who largely were carried
    over from his father's administration, now seek predictability,
    stability and continuity to preserve and protect public and private
    fortunes. Ilham Aliyev's landslide 2008 re-election was followed
    by a hastily-called March 2009 referendum, which among other things
    removed term limits for the President. Aliyev's cabinet has changed
    very little over the years, with few "reformers" brought in or
    remaining in power. The Prime Minister position is largely ceremonial
    and weak. Because of family connections, dynastic succession, the
    strong arming of the opposition and the creation of an elaborate
    patronage/protection network, the Aliyev Administration has developed
    an "organized crime" image in some quarters, leading some analysts
    to see Ilham Aliyev at times in a mafia-like role.

    "Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgment."

    BAKU 00000749 002 OF 004

    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶5. (C) In their short study "The Godfather Doctrine," Hulsman
    and Mitchell present brothers Sonny and Michael Corleone from
    "The Godfather" as exemplars of two out of three schools of
    U.S. foreign policy thought (with consigliere Tom Hagen representing
    the third.) However, there are important points they raise about the
    two that apply well to Aliyev and his policies abroad and at home.

    Michael, they write, is a talented balancer of alliances, aware of
    limitations on his own power who, importantly, knows when something
    isn't personal, but only business. Sonny, by contrast, is brash,
    impulsive, and puts blind faith in force to address affronts to the
    Corleone family. For him, business is personal. Finally, Sonny refuses
    to contemplate a present or a future in which the Corleone family
    does not dominate New York, despite obvious and growing portents to
    the contrary.

    "This is business, not personal" - Balanced Foreign Policy
    --------------------------------------------- -------------

    ¶6. (S) President Aliyev inherited from his father a clever, realistic
    foreign policy that he has largely maintained.

    With the overarching goal of maintaining and increasing Azerbaijan's
    independence and sovereignty, he encourages involvement with NATO and
    Euro-Atlantic security and political structures and supports a policy
    of westward transit of Azerbaijani oil and gas through non-Russian
    channels. Otherwise, though, he alternates between assertiveness
    and appeasement where his powerful neighbors Russia and Iran are
    concerned. For example, Azerbaijan routinely accuses Russia of
    supplying Armenia with weapons and pointedly absents itself from the
    Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), while participating in
    GUAM. At the same time, Aliyev constantly plays up his relations with
    President Medvedev with frequent visits and has kept open the channels
    of negotiation on energy issues, concluding a small but symbolically
    important agreement with Gazprom to supply gas to Dagestan (Reftel
    B). He is assertive enough to defend Azerbaijan's prerogative for an
    independent policy, but discreet enough that he is in no danger of
    joining Saakashvili on Moscow's hit list.

    ¶7. (S) In foreign policy, Aliyev has also been able to maintain
    generally the distinction between "business and personal." For
    all his bluster about Azerbaijan's legal right to liberate
    the Armenian-occupied territories by force, Aliyev has worked
    constructively on the Minsk Group-proposed Basic Principles and
    developed a reportedly good rapport with Armenian President Sargsian
    - in contrast to the much more confrontational relationship between
    the countries' foreign ministers. Similarly, even as Aliyev regards
    with horror the prospect of Turkey-Armenia rapprochement ahead of
    Nagorno-Karabakh resolution, the President has instructed SOCAR
    to continue gas transit and supply talks with Turkey, and no one
    in Baku has dared to consider a cut in oil exports through the BTC
    pipeline. The gas transit talks are a hardball affair to be sure,
    but Aliyev surely recognizes that Azerbaijan cannot really afford a
    total rupture with Turkey and certainly is not going to go so far as
    to foreclose on options out of pique while the Turkey-Armenia question
    remains open.

    "You touch my sister again and I'll kill you." - The Hardliner
    --------------------------------------------- -----------------

    ¶8. (S) For all of the cool-headed calculation that generally
    influences Aliyev's foreign policy, his domestic policies are another
    matter. As Aliyev perceives a challenge to his authority or affronts
    to his family dignity, even minor ones, he and his inner circle are
    apt to react (or overreact), much to the detriment of the country's
    democratic development and movement toward Western alliances. The
    example of the crude retaliation against the young bloggers Emin Milli
    and Adnan Hajizade is the most recent and public example (Reftel A).

    Earlier, defending his decision to rescind licenses for foreign
    broadcasters, Aliyev expressed his anger that Radio

    BAKU 00000749 003 OF 004

    Liberty had mocked his plan to build the world's tallest flagpole in
    the Baku port area, demonstrating exceedingly thin skin (Reftel C).

    ¶9. (S/NF) It is examples like these that inspired XXXXXXXXXXXX quip
    to the Charge about Sonny and Michael. XXXXXXXXXXXX elaborated on the
    point in that conversation, recalling times when he was an XXXXXXXXXXXX
    and similar situations arose. Heydar would never have allowed himself
    to be goaded into ridiculous reactions, he said. (Note: XXXXXXXXXXXX
    memory on this might be a little selective, but he has a point that
    the space for opinion was wider under the last President, a view often
    echoed by journalists who look back to the 1990s nostalgically. End
    Note.) Ilham Aliyev, in XXXXXXXXXXXX view, is not inclined to subtlety
    or deliberation in his response to these kinds of issues.

    "I don't feel I have to wipe everybody out. Just
    my enemies."Q-----------------------------------
    --------------------------

    ¶10. (S) Aliyev takes the actions he does in order to eliminate
    even the semblance of risk to his political prominence. His goal
    appears to be a political environment in which the Aliyev dynasty is
    unchallenged, which was demonstrated by the hastily organized March
    2009 constitutional referendum removing presidential term limits.

    This strangled the hopes of any and all pretenders to succession,
    including his wife (who in Azeri politics is thought of as a rival
    Pashayev, not an Aliyev).

    ¶11. (S) The dissonance between Aliyev's sensible approach to
    foreign affairs, manifested by the cosmopolitan image he presents to
    Western visitors, with his tailored suits and flawless English, and
    the unpleasant reality of his approach to domestic issues raises the
    obvious question of how these two realities coexist. One explanation
    is that Aliyev is insecure in domestic politics and relies heavily on
    the advice of old-line Soviet-style political figures carried forward
    from his father's administration, such as Presidential Chief of Staff
    Ramiz Mehdiyev. Alternatively, Aliyev's domestic actions are free
    choices made in accordance with his instincts, with Mehdiyev and
    others playing the "heavy.".

    ¶12. (S) Occasionally, Aliyev's confident tough-guy image gives way to
    an impression that he is yielding on domestic issues. Outside pressure
    does not always fail. A recent positive example was the outcome of the
    parliament's initiative to ram through a Russian-style law on NGOs. In
    the face of a domestic outcry - including from government-supported
    NGOs, the Presidential Administration intervened to prevent the law
    as drafted from passing (Reftel D). Likewise, the President recently
    rejected a bill from parliament that would have required foreign-based
    entities to hire vetted Azerbaijanis citizens as deputy directors. The
    business community strongly opposed this bill (Reftel E).

    Also, the government earlier this year released one of the prominent
    journalists whose imprisonment was widely believed to have been
    politically motivated (Reftel F).

    "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer."

    --------------------------------------------- -----

    ¶13. (S) Comment: It is clear that Azerbaijan's future development
    would better suit United States policy goals if Aliyev pursued his
    domestic policies in a manner that resembled his foreign policy
    methods, however imperfect they may be. A full-scale democratic
    conversion, however, is an unlikely outcome, and the record of
    presidents in this region leaving office voluntarily is rather
    thin. What is desirable and perhaps achievable, however, is that Aliyev
    would govern as a manager of alliances, viewing the political space
    occupied by dissents as a source of ideas and a warning system for
    when policies are hurting the national interest; and ceasing to feel
    that he should strike hard at every criticism that arises, or that
    he can do so without consequences. At least this type of evolution
    would better prepare Azerbaijan for the post-Ilham Aliyev era, whenever

    BAKU 00000749 004 OF 004

    that begins.

    ¶14. (S) Comment Continued: Here is where the Godfather analogy
    begins to break down. In Azerbaijan the role of loyal consigliere to
    the father and the son is played by the long-time head of Presidential
    Administration Ramiz Mehdiyev.

    Mehdiyev is no calm, conciliating Tom Hagen. We do not know if
    President Aliyev personally ordered the many iron-fisted domestic
    initiatives, although he almost certainly approved them, even if
    after-the-fact. We do see Mehdiyev's fingerprints all over the arrests
    of journalists, the stifling of opposition leaders, the closure of
    mosques, the restrictions on the media and the general law-and-order
    approach to governance. Is he the puppet or the puppet-master? At age
    71 and often seen in frail health, this is an increasingly important
    question. While the rule of 47-year old Ilham Aliyev could continue
    for decades, it would be most likely without the benefit of his
    consigliere.

    Without Mehdiyev, it is not clear whom Aliyev will turn to for help
    in maintaining the same firm grip on the instruments of power.

    ¶15. (U) "Don Corleone, I need a man with powerful friends .

    . . I need all of those policians you carry around in your pocket,
    like so many nickels and dimes."

    LU

    VZCZCXRO8966 PP RUEHAG RUEHDBU RUEHROV RUEHSL DE RUEHKB #0749/01
    2611117 ZNY SSSSS ZZH P 181117Z SEP 09 FM AMEMBASSY BAKU TO
    RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1767 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
    PRIORITY RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA
    PRIORITY 3544 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEKDIA/DIA
    WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
    PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1463S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04
    BAKU 000749

    SIPDIS NOFORN




    From: A. Papazian
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