Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Analyst predicts "soft revolution" for Azerbaijan - Armenian agency

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Analyst predicts "soft revolution" for Azerbaijan - Armenian agency

    Analyst predicts "soft revolution" for Azerbaijan - Armenian agency

    Arminfo
    29 Apr 05

    Yerevan, 29 April: A "soft revolution" is possible in Azerbaijan. This
    is the opinion of Arif Yunusov, head of the conflict studies and
    migration department at the Institute of Peace and Democracy, who
    spoke at the international conference "The Caucasus 2004" which is
    under way in Yerevan.

    Briefly describing the situation in Azerbaijan in the wake of
    [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev's coming to power, the political
    analyst said that as opposed to [his father and the late Azerbaijani
    President] Heydar Aliyev - a strong personality and "father of the
    nation" - Ilham Aliyev has turned out to be a weak politician. What is
    more, he has failed to fit in his father's team. For instance,
    whereas under Heydar Aliyev there were only two clans, people hailing
    from Naxcivan and those hailing from Armenia, a trend towards
    oligarchy has started under Ilham Aliyev.

    As an example of the weakness of the incumbent president, Yunusov
    cited that under Heydar Aliyev "no minister dared to say 'I reckon',
    but only said 'we reckon'". Thus, the trend towards oligarchy has
    brought about many mini-presidents in Azerbaijan, Yunusov
    said. Another proof of the weakness of Ilham Aliyev's policy is an
    unsuccessful attempt at dismissing Health Minister Ali Insanov. This
    [weakness] has effectively resulted in a duopoly: the president is in
    charge of foreign relations, while Ramiz Mehdiyev, head of the
    presidential administration, decides on domestic issues. Hence, Ilham
    Aliyev has been given the role of the British Queen.

    A distinctive feature of the recent period has been the opportunity
    given to oligarchs to invest the accumulated funds in Azerbaijan,
    Yunusov said. Whereas Azerbaijan previously registered net capital
    outflow, the situation has reversed now. In the political analyst's
    view, the gulf between the political system and economy can result in
    a clash.

    Speaking about regional processes and their impact on the situation in
    Azerbaijan, Yunusov said that the war in Iraq has already affected
    Azerbaijan and a possible war in Iran may have unpredictable
    consequences for Baku. At the same time, there are some circles in
    Azerbaijan which advocate a military operation in Iran, Yunusov said.

    Describing the situation and noting Azerbaijan's role as a
    springboard, the political analyst recalled the modernization of seven
    airports and the "American servicemen who have turned up in
    Azerbaijan". In this connection, Yunusov said that Tehran has made
    unprecedented concessions by allowing to open an Azerbaijani consulate
    in Tabriz [capital of Iran's East Azarbayjan Province], making
    concessions on the status of the Caspian Sea and "condemning Armenia's
    aggression".

    In exchange, Azerbaijan pledged not to station foreign troops on its
    territory. However, to skirt round this obstacle, Azerbaijan dubs them
    "mobile units". The political analyst links the recent visit by US
    Defence Secretary [Donald Rumsfeld] to Azerbaijan to an attempt to
    agree on specific deadlines for stationing mobile units.

    In the opinion of Yunusov, the domestic political situation in
    Azerbaijan is, by and large, quite tense and unpredictable in terms of
    infighting within the Azerbaijani leadership, lack of strong will, an
    economic boom and external factors. Arif Yunusov offered a scenario
    whereby a "soft revolution" keeps Ilham Aliyev in office and he goes
    on playing the role of the British Queen. However, the "guard" of
    Heydar Aliyev resigns and a big group of pro-Western MPs ends up in
    parliament.
Working...
X