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  • Iran in 2011: Possible Developments

    IRAN IN 2011: POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS

    http://noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=5352
    03.02.2011

    Sevak Sarukhanyan

    S.Sarukhanyan - Deputy Director of `Noravank' Foundation, Head of the
    Center of the Political Studies, Ph.D. in Political Sciences

    2011 will be important from the point of view of the social-economic
    and political development of Iran, as well as in the aspect of nuclear
    programme and foreign and domestic political developments.

    1. The main result of 2010
    2010 was rather difficult year for Iran. Important developments took
    place in the domestic and foreign political life of Iran. Those
    developments challenged stable social-economic and political
    development of the country.

    In the domestic political life the positions of the radical
    conservatives had been consolidated the main manifestation of which
    was the discharge of `centrist' M. Motaki from the post of the
    Minister of Foreign Affairs. At the same time radical conservatives
    attached more acuity to their confrontations with old `centric' ruling
    elite (the later has demonstrated a kind of weakness of their strength
    in the course of this controversy). The decision of the Iranian court
    taken in November 2010 to arrest M. Hashemi, the son of the former
    president A.A. Hashemi Rafsanjani, can be considered as one of the
    most important developments in domestic political field because it
    symbolized the relative defeat of the `centric' powers united round
    Hashemi Rafsanjani.

    Important foreign political developments were connected with the
    nuclear programme, the implementation of which was not interrupted by
    Iran; it even continually gained in scope. Sanctions imposed against
    Iran had been of no effect. The abrupt deterioration of the relations
    between Russia and Iran can also be considered as one of the most
    important foreign political developments which were conditioned by
    toughening of the stance of Kremlin on the issue of the nuclear
    programme of Iran and the process of coordination of the `Iranian
    policy' with the US.

    The main results which were fixed last year will play an important
    role in the processes which may take place in Iran in 2011.

    2. Domestic political developments in Iran in 2011: possible processes
    2011 will be of great importance in the domestic political life of
    Iran because during this year the country will be preparing for the
    parliamentary elections which are going to be held in February 2012.
    Those elections will be the first national elections since 2009 when
    M. Ahmadinejad was reelected as the president and when, probably the
    most serious political crisis after the Islamic revolution burst out.
    Taking into consideration this fact, the most serious powers in the
    Iranian political field began eager preparations to the upcoming
    elections in the shadow of which the political struggle of the coming
    12 months will pass on. The informational and administrative struggle
    initiated against the former president A.A. Hashemi Rafsanjani proves
    that the radical conservatives united round the president M.
    Ahmadinejad consider `centric powers' united round Hashemi Rafsanjani
    as their main opponents. The decision about the arrest of the Mehdi
    Hashemi, the son of the former president, was a serious blow to the
    `centric powers', because Hashemi who is now in London is accused of
    not only economic abuse and organizing anti-government rally but he is
    also accused of cooperation with British special services. One may say
    that the anti-oppositional propaganda carried out by the state mass
    media will even intensify in 2011 and its keystone in 2010 was the
    connections of the opposition with the British intelligence.

    It should be mentioned that the accusations of the `British trace' has
    been a kind of tradition in Iran since 1960 when it became obvious
    that the Mossadiq government was overthrown by the British and
    American intelligence services. But it should also be mentioned that a
    part of the current Iranian opposition has really indirect connections
    with Britain; some relatives of the leaders of opposition M. Karroubi
    and M.H. Mousavi really live in Great Britain and this is fact is used
    by the state propaganda. In their turn British special services add
    fuel to the anti-British fire in Iran; after the statement of the head
    of the British Mi-6 J. Sowers that Iranian nuclear programme should be
    stopped not only by the discussions but also through special
    intelligence operations, Iran officially declared the UK the main
    organizer of diversions (including neutralization of the specialists
    in nuclear physics) on its territory.

    It can be expected that in 2011 state propaganda will fully identify
    opposition to the traitors which may serve as a grounds for the
    Council of the Guardians not to register active oppositional leaders
    and their groups as parliamentary candidates.

    At the same time in the oppositional camp the struggle for the role of
    the leader of the opposition will unfold in 2011. Most probably the
    main persons involved into that struggle will be M. H. Mousavi and M.
    Karroubi. Positions of Mousavi in the oppositional field has weakened
    since 2009 because many blame him in being unable to transform the
    revolutionary power of thousands of people who went out for rally; it
    is obvious that in 2009 it was a pre-revolutionary situation in Tehran
    and Mousavi refused to turn into a revolutionary one. Taking into
    consideration this fact, one can expect that in 2011 M. Karroubi whose
    anti-governmental stance is tougher can undertake the role of the
    oppositional leader in Iran. He makes everything to obtain this goal:
    at the end of 2010 Karroubi had already criticized the spiritual
    leader A. Khamenei, saying that he was responsible for the situation
    in the country. The stance of Hashemi Rafsanjani will also influence
    the processes going on inside the oppositional powers. Will he protect
    directly opposition or after the campaign initiated against him and
    his son he will agree to start a dialogue or cooperate with the
    radical conservatives?

    Let us mention that one of the main intrigues of the domestic
    political developments will be the behavior of the former president M.
    Khatami. Will he return to a big politics or not? Many believe that in
    2013 M. Khatami must become oppositional candidate for the
    presidential elections.

    3. Possible foreign political developments round Iran in 2011
    The issue of a nuclear programme will remain in the spotlight of the
    foreign political developments round Iran. However, no serious shift
    can be expected in this direction in 2011, because the negotiation
    between Iran and `the six' which seemed to revive at the beginning of
    the year will bring the parties to frequent meetings, discussion of
    the options of the settlement of the issue, mutually discrepant
    statements which can have no serious effect on ceasing of the nuclear
    programme of Iran. It is possible that in 2011 the UN Security Council
    will pass another package of sanctions against Iran which, however,
    can hardly stop Iran on its way to become a nuclear power. It should
    be mentioned that 2011 will be pre-election for both Russia and US
    where the presidential elections are to be held in 2012.

    If in case with Russia its policy in regard to Iran can hardly have
    any serious effect, Iranian and US authorities will probably make the
    statements and propaganda against each other tougher, but they will
    have to act more carefully, as serious mistakes in the foreign
    political field can affect seriously the possible results of the
    presidential elections. At the same time, one can expect that B. Obama
    in order to be re-elected must secure American presence in Iraq and
    Afghanistan to restrain the discontent of the American electorate with
    the failure of the American foreign policy. To obtain this purpose,
    most probably, in 2011 the US will stir up its dialogue with Iran
    concerning the assistance in settlement of the situation in Iraq and
    Afghanistan. Taking into consideration the fact that the US
    authorities and influential mass media have stated that the stability
    in the region can hardly be achieved without participation of Iran,
    Washington is already ready for cooperation.

    Besides Iraq and Afghanistan, in 2011 the relations with Turkey and
    situation in Pakistan will also be important for Iran. Turkish-Iranian
    cooperation has already reached definite high level which must be
    followed either by final strengthening and institutionalization of the
    cooperation or a definite freezing of those relations. Taking into
    consideration the circumstance that since the second half of 2010 at
    the negotiations with the EU Turkish prime-minister has stopped
    insisting on the participation of Iran in Nabucco project, one can
    expect that in 2011 there will be no positive shift in the most
    important, i.e. economic part (export of the Iranian gas to the EU
    through the Turkish territory) of the Iranian-Turkish relations. As
    for Pakistan, in 2011 Iran will spare no strength in order not to
    allow accession to power of anti-Iranian and anti-Shiite radical Sunni
    Islamists.

    Thus, 2011 will be of great importance for Iran in terms of both
    domestic and foreign political developments.

    `Globus Energy and Regional Security', issue 1, 2011




    From: A. Papazian
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