Tweet
KARABAKH CONFLICT STILL AWAITS ITS BREAKTHROUGH MOMENT
Georgian Daily
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=21183&It emid=132
March 9 2011
Georgia
Alman Mir Ismail
Source: www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/
The March 5 meeting in Sochi between the Armenian, Azerbaijan and
Russian presidents, Serj Sarksyan, Ilham Aliyev and Dmitry Medvedev,
respectively, resulted in a joint declaration, but once again failed
to produce the much-expected breakthrough on the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict. This was the eighth meeting of these state officials
in such a trilateral format.
The joint declaration merely referred to the previous agreement
between the two sides, reached in Astrakhan on October 27, 2010
regarding the full exchange of all prisoners of war. The document
urged both sides to speed up and complete the exchange process and
solve all other disagreements through peaceful means, as well as
investigating possible ceasefire violations under the auspices of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk group
(www.president.az, March 6).
After the end of the trilateral meeting the Russian Foreign Minister,
Sergey Lavrov, met the co-chairs of the Minsk group to discuss the
Karabakh conflict and further steps towards its peaceful resolution
(www.1news.az, March 6).
It is evident that President Medvedev, who has been closely involved
in this conflict's peace process in the past two years, has put his
personal reputation on the table. Many observers believe that the
keys to the resolution of the conflict are in the Kremlin. In fact,
the close military alliance between Russia and Armenia provides
hope that at some point Russia can indeed play a constructive role
in the resolution of the conflict and urge Armenia to make certain
compromises. This would break the deadlock, which appeared in this
22-year old conflict, earn Moscow certain political dividends and image
of a peacemaker as well as further drawing Azerbaijan closer to Russia.
Yet, despite the proactive participation by President Medvedev in
this process, no significant results have been obtained. Armenia
still refuses to accept the so-called "renewed Madrid principles," a
proposal made by the Minsk group in 2009 on the basic principles of the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan has already expressed
its general consent with this document, which envisages the gradual
return of the occupied Azerbaijani territories to Azerbaijan, return
of the displaced persons to their homes, resumption of trade links,
guaranteeing of the security of the local population and eventual
determination of the status of Karabakh by the free expression of
the will of the population.
The absence of any reaction from Yerevan towards this document
frustrates both the mediators and official Baku. During the OSCE summit
in Astana in December 2010, mediators urged both sides not to delay and
take urgent steps towards the resolution of the conflict. All mediators
are trying to save the peace process from becoming a complete fiasco
by organizing new meetings of the presidents and foreign ministers
and making new creative statements which establish an appearance that
the peace process is still alive. In many ways, the Sochi meeting
resembled an attempt to rescue the patient rather than treat him.
Meanwhile, many in Azerbaijan are convinced that Armenia is
not interested in peace and the Minsk group is dragging out the
process. Baku's frustration with Yerevan's refusal to agree on the
Madrid principles translates into more military spending, harsher
rhetoric from Azerbaijani politicians and anger among the general
public with the international mediators. This week, President Aliyev
visited several new plants which produce equipment and technology for
the military and launched the construction of several more. Azerbaijan
also participated in the IDEX-2011 military-industrial exhibition in
the United Arab Emirates which displayed 71 types of new military
products (APA, February 23). Generally, the Minister of Military
Industry of Azerbaijan, Yaver Jamalov, stated that the country will
increase the number of new products from the current 413 to 480 and
some of them will even be exported (ANS-TV, February 23).
Thus, the military buildup by both countries is increasing, but
Russian mediation seems to focus on strengthening the ceasefire
rather than a complete resolution of the conflict. President Aliyev
evidently places much hope on the Russian role in the mediation. If
this process fails and Russia is unable to pressure Armenia to make
compromises, it is unclear what other peaceful means will remain on
the table. Frustration in both capitals can lead to new escalation
of the conflict, including a full-scale war.
From: A. Papazian
Georgian Daily
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=21183&It emid=132
March 9 2011
Georgia
Alman Mir Ismail
Source: www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/
The March 5 meeting in Sochi between the Armenian, Azerbaijan and
Russian presidents, Serj Sarksyan, Ilham Aliyev and Dmitry Medvedev,
respectively, resulted in a joint declaration, but once again failed
to produce the much-expected breakthrough on the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict. This was the eighth meeting of these state officials
in such a trilateral format.
The joint declaration merely referred to the previous agreement
between the two sides, reached in Astrakhan on October 27, 2010
regarding the full exchange of all prisoners of war. The document
urged both sides to speed up and complete the exchange process and
solve all other disagreements through peaceful means, as well as
investigating possible ceasefire violations under the auspices of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk group
(www.president.az, March 6).
After the end of the trilateral meeting the Russian Foreign Minister,
Sergey Lavrov, met the co-chairs of the Minsk group to discuss the
Karabakh conflict and further steps towards its peaceful resolution
(www.1news.az, March 6).
It is evident that President Medvedev, who has been closely involved
in this conflict's peace process in the past two years, has put his
personal reputation on the table. Many observers believe that the
keys to the resolution of the conflict are in the Kremlin. In fact,
the close military alliance between Russia and Armenia provides
hope that at some point Russia can indeed play a constructive role
in the resolution of the conflict and urge Armenia to make certain
compromises. This would break the deadlock, which appeared in this
22-year old conflict, earn Moscow certain political dividends and image
of a peacemaker as well as further drawing Azerbaijan closer to Russia.
Yet, despite the proactive participation by President Medvedev in
this process, no significant results have been obtained. Armenia
still refuses to accept the so-called "renewed Madrid principles," a
proposal made by the Minsk group in 2009 on the basic principles of the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan has already expressed
its general consent with this document, which envisages the gradual
return of the occupied Azerbaijani territories to Azerbaijan, return
of the displaced persons to their homes, resumption of trade links,
guaranteeing of the security of the local population and eventual
determination of the status of Karabakh by the free expression of
the will of the population.
The absence of any reaction from Yerevan towards this document
frustrates both the mediators and official Baku. During the OSCE summit
in Astana in December 2010, mediators urged both sides not to delay and
take urgent steps towards the resolution of the conflict. All mediators
are trying to save the peace process from becoming a complete fiasco
by organizing new meetings of the presidents and foreign ministers
and making new creative statements which establish an appearance that
the peace process is still alive. In many ways, the Sochi meeting
resembled an attempt to rescue the patient rather than treat him.
Meanwhile, many in Azerbaijan are convinced that Armenia is
not interested in peace and the Minsk group is dragging out the
process. Baku's frustration with Yerevan's refusal to agree on the
Madrid principles translates into more military spending, harsher
rhetoric from Azerbaijani politicians and anger among the general
public with the international mediators. This week, President Aliyev
visited several new plants which produce equipment and technology for
the military and launched the construction of several more. Azerbaijan
also participated in the IDEX-2011 military-industrial exhibition in
the United Arab Emirates which displayed 71 types of new military
products (APA, February 23). Generally, the Minister of Military
Industry of Azerbaijan, Yaver Jamalov, stated that the country will
increase the number of new products from the current 413 to 480 and
some of them will even be exported (ANS-TV, February 23).
Thus, the military buildup by both countries is increasing, but
Russian mediation seems to focus on strengthening the ceasefire
rather than a complete resolution of the conflict. President Aliyev
evidently places much hope on the Russian role in the mediation. If
this process fails and Russia is unable to pressure Armenia to make
compromises, it is unclear what other peaceful means will remain on
the table. Frustration in both capitals can lead to new escalation
of the conflict, including a full-scale war.
From: A. Papazian