Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

"Contract Of The Century": 1994 Karabakh Ceasefire And Azerbaijan's

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • "Contract Of The Century": 1994 Karabakh Ceasefire And Azerbaijan's

    "CONTRACT OF THE CENTURY": 1994 KARABAKH CEASEFIRE AND AZERBAIJAN'S FUEL DIPLOMACY

    12.05.11
    By Aris Ghazinyan

    ArmeniaNow
    Ceasefire agreement signing in 1994

    The agreement on a ceasefire along the whole perimeter of the Karabakh
    frontline, which despite sporadic skirmishes largely holds today, came
    into force on May 12, 1994. Very often when viewing this important
    event the accent is put on its humanitarian role, but this agreement
    also had its quite tangible pragmatic political consequences.

    No Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline yet existed in 1992, and fuel supplies
    to the West were still being carried out by railway, in cisterns. Back
    then former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher visited Baku as a
    representative of British Petroleum, however it was when the Karabakh
    war was at its height and no serious investment company could afford
    putting large money into Azerbaijan.

    The 1994 ceasefire protocols putting a halt to hostilities in Karabakh
    changed the picture - the "Contract of the Century" was signed later
    that year in September launching a successful implementation of the
    'new oil strategy' and doctrine.

    After the signing of the contract Azerbaijan International Operating
    Company was founded. The ceasefire agreement "opened a path" for
    contracts with 41 oil companies from 19 countries.

    The Azerbaijani authorities were hesitating for a while and, as opposed
    to Yerevan and Stepanakert, couldn't make up their mind on whether
    they should sign the protocol or not. The thing is that based on the
    overall state of affairs by May 1994 signing the ceasefire protocol
    nearly amounted to "legalizing" - even if temporarily - the sovereignty
    of Nagorno-Karabakh. And that was Azerbaijan's main concern.

    On the other hand, Baku had no way out other than signing the
    agreement, as otherwise a prospect was opening up for Armenians
    to establish control over the Baku-Tbilisi railroad section, a
    communication artery vitally important for oil-rich Azerbaijan.

    Obviously, under such a layout, Azerbaijan would be deprived not only
    of the opportunity of transporting its hydrocarbon raw materials
    to Georgia's Black Sea ports, but also of the prospect of possible
    regional conflict solution via the same "fuel diplomacy". Hence,
    the agreement was more in Azerbaijan's interests, because the risk
    of losing control over its main railway bed was fraught with the loss
    of the very essence of fuel policy.

    In 1994 the Armenian military forces reached the valley of the
    Kura river and were in a position to establish control over the
    Yevlakh-Mingechaur railway junction; if implemented this would have
    fundamentally changed the geopolitical situation in the region and
    drastically reduced Azerbaijan's post-war ardor conditioned by its
    "oil diplomacy" as well as have had a critical impact on Karabakh
    peace talks.

    Consequently, Azerbaijan would have no other option but make
    concessions in the Karabakh issue, as the then authorized
    representative of the Russian president, Russia's top Karabakh
    negotiator Vladimir Kazimirov later confessed: "In the spring of 1994
    the fierce fighting at Terter, north of [Karabakh capital] Stepanakert,
    threatened with a new disaster: the Armenians' exit to the Kura
    river would have cut off Azerbaijan's north-western projection -
    Baku wasn't even putting forward preconditions and was ready for a
    long-term truce."

    Hence, the ceasefire agreement signed on May 12, 1994 had quite
    distinct political consequences.

    Ever since then the concept of "fuel diplomacy" has been part of all
    political research on the Karabakh issue and Baku has been pinning
    hopes on major oil corporations.

Working...
X