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Saber Rattling Grows Louder Around Abkhazia

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  • Saber Rattling Grows Louder Around Abkhazia

    SABER RATTLING GROWS LOUDER AROUND ABKHAZIA
    --Zaal Anjaparidze

    Eurasia Daily Monitor
    Monday, May 2, 2005 -- Volume 2, Issue 85

    The leadership of Georgia's separatist region Abkhazia is beefing up
    its military potential, while the Georgian armed forces are continuing
    their military exercise. Televised reports about the Georgian exercises
    began with title cards reading "Sukhumi" (capital of Abkhazia) and
    "Tskhinvali" (capital of breakaway South Ossetia). Images of military
    demonstrations were accompanied by interviews with Georgia's hawkish
    defense minister, Irakli Okruashvili, who told the Week's Palette
    (April 25-May 1) that his main goal is the restoration of Georgian
    territorial integrity "as soon as possible."

    Sukhumi responded by announcing its readiness to conduct additional
    military exercises that would be "unprecedented in Abkhazian
    history." Anatoly Zaitsev, a retired Russian general recruited
    as deputy defense minister of Abkhazia, said that the upcoming
    military exercise would be far larger-scale than those held April
    18-21. However, he did not specify the reasons for or the dates of
    the next maneuvers (Caucasus Press, Inter-Press, April 28).

    The move from peaceful discussions to saber rattling is undermining
    the fragile progress reportedly achieved at the Georgian-Abkhaz
    talks in Geneva on April 7-8 under the auspices of the UN
    Secretary-General's Group of Friends of Georgia (Russia, United
    States, France, Great Britain, and Germany). The final document
    produced at those talks again emphasized the need to avoid military
    force, activate confidence-building measures, and work toward refugee
    return and economic cooperation between Tbilisi and Sukhumi. Sergei
    Shamba, Abkhaz minister of foreign affairs and head of the Abkhaz
    delegation in Geneva, even traveled to Italy's autonomous South
    Tyrol region together with the Georgians to consider using that
    region as a possible model for future Georgian-Abkhaz relations. "The
    opportunity to start a serious dialogue has appeared. We have not had
    a better chance to come to an agreement since the war," said Irakli
    Alasania, head of the Tbilisi-based Abkhaz government in-exile and
    a participant in the talks. According to him, Georgia has already
    prepared a package of proposals for developing trans-border economic
    cooperation with Abkhazia, including micro-credit projects allowing
    joint Georgian-Abkhaz ventures as a first step for building trust
    (Nezavisimaya gazeta, April 11).

    Prior to the Geneva talks, Sergei Bagapsh, president of Abkhazia, had
    expressed his readiness to meet Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili,
    but he later changed his mind and said such a meeting would only be
    possible outside of Georgia. Saakashvili, in turn, stated that he would
    meet Bagapsh only in Tbilisi (Imedi TV, April 14; gazeta.ru March 30;
    Nezavisimaya gazeta, April 11).

    Following sharp criticism by Abkhaz Security Council secretary
    Stanislav Lakoba, Shamba was forced to explain his participation
    in the trip to South Tyrol. Lakoba argued that South Tyrol couldn't
    be an example for Sukhumi, because Abkhazia is an independent state
    (Regnum.ru, April 18; Resonance, April 19).

    Meanwhile, the United States has turned its attention toward Abkhazia,
    as U.S. President George W. Bush plans to visit Georgia on May 10. On
    April 11, a U.S. delegation that included the State Department's Senior
    Advisor for Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy, Ambassador Steven Mann,
    and U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Richard Miles visited Sukhumi. Yet
    after talks with the U.S. delegation, Bagapsh continued to insist
    that Abkhazia would not give up its independence. Bagapsh denied
    that the U.S. diplomats had invited him to Tbilisi to hold talks with
    Saakashvili during Bush's visit (Regnum, Rosbalt, April 11-12). He
    also stressed that Russia remains a major mediator in the conflict.

    After the talks Bagapsh promptly visited Moscow April 12-13, and on
    April 18-21 the Abkhaz army, likely at Moscow's suggestion, conducted
    large-scale military exercises as if responding to the visit by the
    U.S. diplomats. The military exercise aimed at repelling an imaginary
    invasion by Georgian troops. The exercise deployed Abkhaz troops
    backed by modern jetfighters, with Russian personnel training the
    Abkhaz pilots.

    Simultaneously Abkhaz separatists are actively courting Russian and
    Turkish investment in hopes of improving the economic situation in
    the region. More than 50 Russian construction companies participated
    in an April 10-11 exhibition in Sukhumi, and 13 more Turkish firms
    have joined Abkhazia's Chamber of Industry and Commerce. However,
    heavy crime hinders the inflow of investments. On April 26, Bagapsh
    expressed concern about the dire criminal situation in Abkhazia
    and took direct control over the investigation into an assault on
    a busload of Russian tourists on April 23 (Caucasus Press, April
    28; Rosbalt, April 11; Interfax, April 26). On May 28, the foreign
    ministers of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Karabakh, and Transnistria
    gathered in Sukhumi to prepare for a "presidential summit" in May.

    Meanwhile, the situation in the Kodori Valley, a Georgia-controlled
    section of Abkhaz territory, is becoming tenser. The Georgian defense
    ministry has announced plans to disarm the 400-man local paramilitary
    detachment "Monadire" (Hunter). While the ministry considers the unit
    to be "ineffective," it has successfully defended the Valley from
    multiple Abkhaz attacks since 1994. The detachment refuses to disarm
    (Resonance, April 27).

    The latest round of Georgian policy swings towards Abkhazia suggest
    that while Tbilisi is seeking to regain Abkhazia by political means,
    the government has not completely ruled out a military solution.
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