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BAKU: STRATFOR Expert: "The Caucasus Is Far More Dynamic And Complex

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  • BAKU: STRATFOR Expert: "The Caucasus Is Far More Dynamic And Complex

    STRATFOR EXPERT: "THE CAUCASUS IS FAR MORE DYNAMIC AND COMPLEX THAN A MAP WOULD SUGGEST"

    APA
    May 31 2011
    Azerbaijan

    Baku - APA. "The Caucasus is, geopolitically speaking, an extremely
    important and strategic region.

    As a land bridge between the Black and Caspian seas and a
    trans-continental zone between Europe and Asia, the Caucasus is
    significant in multiple ways because of its location. Adding to these
    geographical dynamics is the presence of three small states - Georgia,
    Armenia and Azerbaijan - sandwiched between three much larger ones
    - Russia, Turkey and Iran. This is all information that is easily
    gleaned from looking at a map; the region's true importance is less
    obvious. A map would not tell you that Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan
    became independent states only 20 years ago. Nor would it tell you that
    Russia, Turkey and Iran were all once major empires. It certainly would
    not tell you that all of these former empires are once again rising
    in their own unique ways, and that even some of the smaller countries
    are beginning to make a name for themselves as significant regional
    players", said STRATFOR's Eugene Chausovsky in his report for APA on
    his recent trip to the Caucasus - "A Journey Through the Caucasus.

    "In short, the Caucasus is far more dynamic and complex than a map
    would suggest, and that is one of the reasons I visited this region:
    to get a first-hand perspective of the Caucasus", the expert said.

    "While I try to follow the countries in the Caucasus in terms of news
    and current events as closely as I can on a regular basis, I have
    learned that there is no substitute for seeing a place with your own
    eyes -- particularly in the Caucasus. In Azerbaijan, instead of reading
    about the latest rise in the country's oil and natural gas exports
    or examining statistics on annual gross domestic product growth,
    I saw economic growth first-hand in the form of seemingly endless
    construction projects and gleaming new skyscrapers around Baku. Instead
    of reading about trade between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, I walked
    along the Bulvar on the Caspian Sea where I saw countless tankers and
    ships, a few of which I am sure were transporting goods to Kazakhstan".

    He also shared his ideas about Georgia: "In Georgia, I realized just
    how small the country - and for that matter the Caucasus region -
    really was. Taking a car from Tbilisi to Gori on the only major
    east-west road in Georgia gave me a new understanding of the size of
    the country and the limits imposed by its mountainous terrain. Passing
    only a few kilometers from the border with the breakaway territory of
    South Ossetia, as well as the numerous internally displaced persons'
    camps along the road, certainly put the 2008 Russia-Georgia war
    in perspective".

    "In Turkey, taking a ferry from the Anatolian side of Istanbul to
    the European side allowed me to see the scope of a cosmopolitan,
    world-class city of 13 million that blends European and Islamic
    characteristics. Walking through Istanbul, it was easy to imagine
    why this city was the center of the Ottoman Empire and the Byzantine
    Empire before that. It was equally as easy to imagine Istanbul as the
    financial and cultural center of a country whose presence is felt in
    Baku and Tbilisi and beyond", the expert said.

    "From spending time in the region, the lasting impression that I came
    away with is that the Caucasus is a region that is swiftly changing
    and one whose future is simultaneously promising and uncertain. The
    static position of the Caucasus on a map is no substitute for the
    dynamism that I witnessed in the region's streets, roads, mountains,
    seas and, most importantly, its people".

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