Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Will Baku Venture Upon War On Eve Of Sargsyan-Aliyev Meeting In Kaza

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Will Baku Venture Upon War On Eve Of Sargsyan-Aliyev Meeting In Kaza

    WILL BAKU VENTURE UPON WAR ON EVE OF SARGSYAN-ALIYEV MEETING IN KAZAN?

    PanARMENIAN.Net
    June 1, 2011 - 21:12 AMT

    PanARMENIAN.Net - "As the Kazan meeting approaches, the stakes are
    raised for both peace and war in the Caucasus," expert Thomas de Waal
    wrote in an article published by National Interest.

    The Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia - Serzh Sargsyan,
    Ilham Aliyev and Dmitry Medvedev - are slated to meet in June in the
    Russian city of Kazan, the next in a series of trilateral meetings
    on the Karabakh conflict settlement.

    There are certain expectations with respect to the meeting, taking
    into consideration the Deaville statement adopted by the leaders
    of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chair countries, who said "the time has
    arrived for all the sides to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to take
    a decisive step towards a peaceful settlement."

    The statement also reads that "further delay [in the settlement]
    would only call into question the commitment of the sides to reach
    an agreement."

    According to Thomas de Waal, it will be tough to construct a joint
    postconflict settlement for Karabakh. "This will be especially
    important if the framework plan is agreed and there comes the
    inevitable hiatus between an initial agreement and progress on the
    ground. The spoilers will rush in to try to destroy it," he said.

    Judging from the established situation, the Azerbaijani leadership can
    be understood among "the spoilers," as it needs a war in Karabakh to
    keep power and does not conceal this, continuously threatening with
    resumption of hostilities in Karabakh. Thus, a peaceful settlement
    of the conflict is not within the plans of Baku and Azerbaijan may
    try to destroy it.

    However, the Deaville statement indicates that Obama, Medvedev
    and Sarkosy have taken into consideration also this possibility:
    "The use of force created the current situation of confrontation
    and instability. Its use again would only bring more suffering and
    devastation, and would be condemned by the international community.

    Thus, even if Aliyev ventures upon a war without permission of the
    superpowers, they will not stand on the sidelines. And due to the
    recent developments in Middle East, specifically, the ouster of
    undesirable leaders there, Aliyev cannot but understand that should
    he launch a war in Karabakh to keep his post, he may be deprived of
    it very soon.


    From: Baghdasarian
Working...
X