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KARABAKH STATUS QUO 'A DANGER TO ARMENIA'
news.az
June 13 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Sahib Aliyev, a non-partisan member of Azerbaijan's
parliament, the Milli Majlis.
Are the international atmosphere and current relations between the
leading powers conducive to progress on a Karabakh conflict settlement
at the upcoming Kazan meeting of the Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian
presidents?
I do not see any significant difference between the current situation
in international relations and the situation that existed in the
world and the region six months or a year ago. In other words, the
international state of affairs has experienced some changes in recent
years. Of course, this may prompt the question on what grounds the
international mediators and the conflict parties hope to achieve
progress on the Karabakh conflict settlement at the presidents'
meeting in Kazan. There are two factors that give hope of progress
in the upcoming negotiations.
The first of these is the fact that Azerbaijan is constantly developing
and has announced that it will not tolerate the continued occupation of
its lands for another 20 years. Naturally, on their part, international
centres of power also see the increasing role of Azerbaijan, and
this forces the countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group to take
concrete steps.
The second factor is the presidential elections to be held in Russia
in 2012. Western countries have indirect support for Dmitry Medvedev's
candidacy. And this is reflected in support from the US and Europe
for Medvedev's mediation efforts in the Karabakh talks.
Which side, Azerbaijan or Armenia, has the stronger position prior
to the Kazan talks?
Naturally, Azerbaijan's position is stronger. Azerbaijan's state
budget is several times bigger than the state budget of Armenia.
Azerbaijan's military expenditure is 10 times greater than Armenia's.
In addition, alongside the economic indicators Azerbaijan has a more
stable political situation. This situation is also reflected in the
negotiation process. In the light of the above factors, the Armenian
side is disowning the results achieved in past negotiations.
Psychological superiority at the presidential level is definitely
on the side of Azerbaijan. Psychological superiority at the social
level is also on the side of Azerbaijan. While in the recent past the
Armenian side threatened to occupy another part of Azerbaijan in the
event of the resumption of war, the situation has now changed.
Now those in Armenia fear that Azerbaijan may start fighting to
liberate its occupied territories. This kind of psychological advantage
is very important. Maintaining the status quo in the Karabakh conflict
represents a danger for Armenia first and foremost.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov recently spoke
about the possibility of deploying on the frontline international
peacekeeping forces from countries that are not neighbours of Armenia
and Azerbaijan, as well as from the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing
countries. May the countries involved in resolution of the Karabakh
conflict agree with this formation of a peacekeeping force?
As you know, the issue of deployment of international peacekeepers
in the conflict zone was first discussed at the OSCE Budapest summit
in 1994. Back then Moscow insisted that the Russian army should make
up the vast majority of the peacekeeping contingent. However, the
OSCE opposed this. Instead, the OSCE suggested that Russia should
account for 30% of the peacekeeping force. True, the parties agreed
that the countries neighbouring on Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well
as the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries, cannot be included in
the peacekeeping force.
Azerbaijan is not a supporter of placing peacekeepers in the
conflict zone and does not advocate this initiative. The ceasefire
in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is continuing, even without the
presence of peacekeepers in the region. Moreover, if Armenia initially
withdraws from the occupied Azerbaijani lands, the incidents on the
frontline separating troops in Karabakh will end. In other words,
Azerbaijan and Armenia can maintain the ceasefire without the presence
of peacekeepers.
news.az
June 13 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Sahib Aliyev, a non-partisan member of Azerbaijan's
parliament, the Milli Majlis.
Are the international atmosphere and current relations between the
leading powers conducive to progress on a Karabakh conflict settlement
at the upcoming Kazan meeting of the Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian
presidents?
I do not see any significant difference between the current situation
in international relations and the situation that existed in the
world and the region six months or a year ago. In other words, the
international state of affairs has experienced some changes in recent
years. Of course, this may prompt the question on what grounds the
international mediators and the conflict parties hope to achieve
progress on the Karabakh conflict settlement at the presidents'
meeting in Kazan. There are two factors that give hope of progress
in the upcoming negotiations.
The first of these is the fact that Azerbaijan is constantly developing
and has announced that it will not tolerate the continued occupation of
its lands for another 20 years. Naturally, on their part, international
centres of power also see the increasing role of Azerbaijan, and
this forces the countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group to take
concrete steps.
The second factor is the presidential elections to be held in Russia
in 2012. Western countries have indirect support for Dmitry Medvedev's
candidacy. And this is reflected in support from the US and Europe
for Medvedev's mediation efforts in the Karabakh talks.
Which side, Azerbaijan or Armenia, has the stronger position prior
to the Kazan talks?
Naturally, Azerbaijan's position is stronger. Azerbaijan's state
budget is several times bigger than the state budget of Armenia.
Azerbaijan's military expenditure is 10 times greater than Armenia's.
In addition, alongside the economic indicators Azerbaijan has a more
stable political situation. This situation is also reflected in the
negotiation process. In the light of the above factors, the Armenian
side is disowning the results achieved in past negotiations.
Psychological superiority at the presidential level is definitely
on the side of Azerbaijan. Psychological superiority at the social
level is also on the side of Azerbaijan. While in the recent past the
Armenian side threatened to occupy another part of Azerbaijan in the
event of the resumption of war, the situation has now changed.
Now those in Armenia fear that Azerbaijan may start fighting to
liberate its occupied territories. This kind of psychological advantage
is very important. Maintaining the status quo in the Karabakh conflict
represents a danger for Armenia first and foremost.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov recently spoke
about the possibility of deploying on the frontline international
peacekeeping forces from countries that are not neighbours of Armenia
and Azerbaijan, as well as from the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing
countries. May the countries involved in resolution of the Karabakh
conflict agree with this formation of a peacekeeping force?
As you know, the issue of deployment of international peacekeepers
in the conflict zone was first discussed at the OSCE Budapest summit
in 1994. Back then Moscow insisted that the Russian army should make
up the vast majority of the peacekeeping contingent. However, the
OSCE opposed this. Instead, the OSCE suggested that Russia should
account for 30% of the peacekeeping force. True, the parties agreed
that the countries neighbouring on Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well
as the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries, cannot be included in
the peacekeeping force.
Azerbaijan is not a supporter of placing peacekeepers in the
conflict zone and does not advocate this initiative. The ceasefire
in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is continuing, even without the
presence of peacekeepers in the region. Moreover, if Armenia initially
withdraws from the occupied Azerbaijani lands, the incidents on the
frontline separating troops in Karabakh will end. In other words,
Azerbaijan and Armenia can maintain the ceasefire without the presence
of peacekeepers.