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ARMENIA TO BE CRUSHED IN CASE OF NO PROGRESS ON KARABAKH
news.az
June 15 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Rasim Musabayov, MP and political scientist.
What risks do the basic principles of Karabakh settlement carry in
themselves for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, given that
the envision signing of a document by the presidents of Azerbaijan
and Armenia during their visit to Kazan in late June?
Basic principles meet the interests of Azerbaijan. I think these
principles also meet the interests of Armenia and the overall
development of the region. The moments like liberation of a part of
occupied Azerbaijani lands, deployment of international peacekeeping
contingent between the conflict parties, conduction of a referendum
to define the status of Nagorno Karabakh, operaning of communication
lines, envisioned in the basic principles, are the components of the
single peace agreement. All the same, I have to note that it all cannot
be achieved if the Armenian occupational troops do not withdraw from
the Azerbaijani lands.
Will all components of basic principles of Karabakh settlement
become real?
Certainly, implementation of each of the indicated components depends
on whether the conflict will be settled peacefully or through war. The
main points is whether Armenia, with its impoverished population of
2-2.5m people begging for aid and transfers from diaspora through
haunting the doorways of international organizations and the states
will be compliant in fulfilling these components. On the other
hand, there is an example of Azerbaijan that always complies with
its commitments. However, it should be taken into account that the
economy and the population of Azerbaijan overtop the Armenian by seven
and three times respectively. For this reason, if the problem is not
settled peacefully, Armenia~Rs defeat will be just a matter of time.
How can a referendum to define the status of Nagorno Karabakh affect
Azerbaijan?
If the referendum will fix the will about the status of Karabakh, this
expression of a will must be equal to the status of the Nakhchivan
Autonomous Republic. The status of Nagorno Karabakh cannot be defined
only by the Armenian population. Karabakh also had the Azerbaijani
population that flee their homes. They have the same rights with the
Armenian community of Karabakh. Therefore, if someone is trying to
interpret this issue unilaterally, that is as a mechanism which can
cause Karabakh secession from Azerbaijan, they are mistaken, since
it will never be so.
Both Azerbaijani and Armenian parties, and a number of countries in
the region are concerned over the issue of a peacekeeping contingent
that might be deployed in the Karabakh conflict area. Which form of
such a peacekeeping contingent would be fitting for both sides?
I suppose these issues are being negotiated. It has definite
restrictions, according to which the peacekeeping contingent cannot
include the militaries of the Minsk Group co-chairing countries,
as well as the countries neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia. The
deployment of the militaries of one of these countries into the
peacekeeping conflict would create clashes between the states.
In fact, the future peacekeeping contingent may include militaries
from Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, as well as Finland,
Sweden and Austria. In this case, we do not mean the peacekeeping
contingent of 10,000-20,000 people. Peacekeepers in Karabakh will
mostly do the observation, since when conflict parties show goodwill,
they can preserve peace with even a limited number of peacekeepers.
Are there chances to sign any document on basic principles of Karabakh
settlement at the Kazan meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and
Armenia and which issues can be reflected in this document?
As far as I know, the protocol by which the parties will announce that
they accept Madrid principles, will allow to start works to prepare the
framework peace agreement. Meanwhile, the co-chairing states will be
the guarantors, given that the Madrid principles will likely not be
published. This formula will likely be applied to avoid resistance
inside Azerbaijan and Armenia. Additionally, I believe that the
document will fix moments and record measures to strengthen ceasefire
regime. It may also reflect the issues of reducing military rhetoric,
humanitarian issues and measures raising mutual trust among parties.
Such a protocol is likely to be signed in Kazan. As the protocol will
not directly fix all moments of Madrid principles, this document has
a chance to be adopted in Kazan.
news.az
June 15 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Rasim Musabayov, MP and political scientist.
What risks do the basic principles of Karabakh settlement carry in
themselves for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, given that
the envision signing of a document by the presidents of Azerbaijan
and Armenia during their visit to Kazan in late June?
Basic principles meet the interests of Azerbaijan. I think these
principles also meet the interests of Armenia and the overall
development of the region. The moments like liberation of a part of
occupied Azerbaijani lands, deployment of international peacekeeping
contingent between the conflict parties, conduction of a referendum
to define the status of Nagorno Karabakh, operaning of communication
lines, envisioned in the basic principles, are the components of the
single peace agreement. All the same, I have to note that it all cannot
be achieved if the Armenian occupational troops do not withdraw from
the Azerbaijani lands.
Will all components of basic principles of Karabakh settlement
become real?
Certainly, implementation of each of the indicated components depends
on whether the conflict will be settled peacefully or through war. The
main points is whether Armenia, with its impoverished population of
2-2.5m people begging for aid and transfers from diaspora through
haunting the doorways of international organizations and the states
will be compliant in fulfilling these components. On the other
hand, there is an example of Azerbaijan that always complies with
its commitments. However, it should be taken into account that the
economy and the population of Azerbaijan overtop the Armenian by seven
and three times respectively. For this reason, if the problem is not
settled peacefully, Armenia~Rs defeat will be just a matter of time.
How can a referendum to define the status of Nagorno Karabakh affect
Azerbaijan?
If the referendum will fix the will about the status of Karabakh, this
expression of a will must be equal to the status of the Nakhchivan
Autonomous Republic. The status of Nagorno Karabakh cannot be defined
only by the Armenian population. Karabakh also had the Azerbaijani
population that flee their homes. They have the same rights with the
Armenian community of Karabakh. Therefore, if someone is trying to
interpret this issue unilaterally, that is as a mechanism which can
cause Karabakh secession from Azerbaijan, they are mistaken, since
it will never be so.
Both Azerbaijani and Armenian parties, and a number of countries in
the region are concerned over the issue of a peacekeeping contingent
that might be deployed in the Karabakh conflict area. Which form of
such a peacekeeping contingent would be fitting for both sides?
I suppose these issues are being negotiated. It has definite
restrictions, according to which the peacekeeping contingent cannot
include the militaries of the Minsk Group co-chairing countries,
as well as the countries neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia. The
deployment of the militaries of one of these countries into the
peacekeeping conflict would create clashes between the states.
In fact, the future peacekeeping contingent may include militaries
from Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, as well as Finland,
Sweden and Austria. In this case, we do not mean the peacekeeping
contingent of 10,000-20,000 people. Peacekeepers in Karabakh will
mostly do the observation, since when conflict parties show goodwill,
they can preserve peace with even a limited number of peacekeepers.
Are there chances to sign any document on basic principles of Karabakh
settlement at the Kazan meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and
Armenia and which issues can be reflected in this document?
As far as I know, the protocol by which the parties will announce that
they accept Madrid principles, will allow to start works to prepare the
framework peace agreement. Meanwhile, the co-chairing states will be
the guarantors, given that the Madrid principles will likely not be
published. This formula will likely be applied to avoid resistance
inside Azerbaijan and Armenia. Additionally, I believe that the
document will fix moments and record measures to strengthen ceasefire
regime. It may also reflect the issues of reducing military rhetoric,
humanitarian issues and measures raising mutual trust among parties.
Such a protocol is likely to be signed in Kazan. As the protocol will
not directly fix all moments of Madrid principles, this document has
a chance to be adopted in Kazan.