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AZERBAIJAN, ARMENIA, RUSSIA AND MORE CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
by Giorgi Lomsadze
EurasiaNet.org
June 24 2011
NY
Amid nail-biting by Caucasus watchers, the leaders of Armenia and
Azerbaijan landed in the Russian city of Kazan today for another round
of conflict-resolution talks over breakaway Nagorno Karabakh. Russian
President Dmitri Medvedev is emceeing this fifth joint appearance by
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart,
Ilham Aliyev. Hopes are that, this time, it could be the real thing.
The cautious optimism from some diplomats and analysts that
accompanied previous Sargsyan-Aliyev meetings has been upgraded to
cautious-optimism-plus. Alongside dire warnings about what could be
the outcome if the talks, once again, go awry. The key expectation for
the two-day summit is that it will produce some sort of agreement in
three key areas: the return of Karabkh-adjacent lands to Azerbaijan,
allowing Azerbaijani Internally Displaced Persons back into Karabakh
and a loose agreement to negotiate the region's status in the future.
Citing an unnamed Russian foreign ministry official, Kommersant,
Russia's weighty daily, claimed today that the two leaders could even
be close to committing to a non-use-of-force agreement as part of
the efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict . Azerbaijan has long
maintained that it will keep the military solution on the table as
an option to restore its authority over Karabakh and surrounding
territories. Given its heavy troop presence in the area, Armenia is
likely to respond in kind.
But while Kommersant's article has lent an extra dose of optimism to
the air, it could only be an attempt by Moscow to make its position
and expectations known. Any progress will count as a masterstroke of
diplomacy on the part of President Medvedev, who has taken an active
role in the conflict resolution talks.
US President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as
part of the US-France-Russia troika of mediators, also have pushed
both sides to take a step toward resolution of the 23-year conflict.
For now, though, don't hold your breath.
From: Baghdasarian
by Giorgi Lomsadze
EurasiaNet.org
June 24 2011
NY
Amid nail-biting by Caucasus watchers, the leaders of Armenia and
Azerbaijan landed in the Russian city of Kazan today for another round
of conflict-resolution talks over breakaway Nagorno Karabakh. Russian
President Dmitri Medvedev is emceeing this fifth joint appearance by
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart,
Ilham Aliyev. Hopes are that, this time, it could be the real thing.
The cautious optimism from some diplomats and analysts that
accompanied previous Sargsyan-Aliyev meetings has been upgraded to
cautious-optimism-plus. Alongside dire warnings about what could be
the outcome if the talks, once again, go awry. The key expectation for
the two-day summit is that it will produce some sort of agreement in
three key areas: the return of Karabkh-adjacent lands to Azerbaijan,
allowing Azerbaijani Internally Displaced Persons back into Karabakh
and a loose agreement to negotiate the region's status in the future.
Citing an unnamed Russian foreign ministry official, Kommersant,
Russia's weighty daily, claimed today that the two leaders could even
be close to committing to a non-use-of-force agreement as part of
the efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict . Azerbaijan has long
maintained that it will keep the military solution on the table as
an option to restore its authority over Karabakh and surrounding
territories. Given its heavy troop presence in the area, Armenia is
likely to respond in kind.
But while Kommersant's article has lent an extra dose of optimism to
the air, it could only be an attempt by Moscow to make its position
and expectations known. Any progress will count as a masterstroke of
diplomacy on the part of President Medvedev, who has taken an active
role in the conflict resolution talks.
US President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as
part of the US-France-Russia troika of mediators, also have pushed
both sides to take a step toward resolution of the 23-year conflict.
For now, though, don't hold your breath.
From: Baghdasarian