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The Mediation Mission Was Handled Poorly

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  • The Mediation Mission Was Handled Poorly

    THE MEDIATION MISSION WAS HANDLED POORLY
    by Aleksandr Gabuyev

    Kommersant
    June 27 2011
    Russia

    [translated from Russian]

    Russia was unsuccessful in reconciling Azerbaijan and Armenia.

    At the meeting in Kazan last Friday, the presidents of Azerbaijan and
    Armenia Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsian, despite expectations, were
    unable to agree on a "road map" for settlement of the conflict in
    [Azerbaijan's breakaway region of] Nagornyy Karabakh, but promised
    to continue the talks. But these talks may occur then without the
    participation of Dmitriy Medvedev. As Kommersant has learned, the
    Russian Federation president is so disappointed with the results of
    the Kazan summit meeting that he is ready to terminate his mediation
    mission. He intends to organize the next meeting between Mr Aliyev
    and Mr Sargsian only on condition that the presidents of Armenia
    and Azerbaijan at long last sign a document on the principles of a
    Karabakh settlement.

    The summit meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia
    in Kazan, which occurred under Dmitriy Medvedev's sponsorship,
    ended without the result that all the organizers of this meeting
    were counting on, the signing of the basic principles for settling
    the conflict in Nagornyy Karabakh. This document, which the OSCE's
    Minsk Group (Russia, the United States, and France) had worked hard on
    preparing since the start of the year, was supposed to become a "road
    map" for resolving one of the most chronic conflicts in post-Soviet
    space (Kommersant wrote about its substance on 24 June).

    On the eve of the summit meeting, the mediators put colossal pressure
    on Baku and Yerevan to make them sign the hard-won document. A day
    before the meeting in Kazan, French President Nicholas Sarkozy wrote a
    letter where he urged the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to "show
    courage and wisdom by making the choice in favour of peace." And US
    President Barack Obama telephoned Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsian in
    order to personally persuade them to sign the agreement.

    But the signing of the "road map" in Kazan did not work out. Instead of
    that the participants in the meeting, which lasted more than an hour,
    got off with a brief statement. In it the presidents of Azerbaijan
    and Armenia thanked the cochairmen of the Minsk Group and "praised
    the personal efforts of the Russian Federation president."

    But as for the essence of the talks, the participants in the summit
    meeting merely said that they had "established the achievement of
    a mutual understanding on a number of issues whose resolution helps
    create the conditions for the approval of the basic principles."

    According to Kommersant's source close to the negotiations, this
    wording means that the parties simply "once again recorded the
    remaining disputed issues."

    The disagreements between the parties surfaced in public right after
    the summit meeting was over. On Saturday Edvard Nalbandyan, the head
    of the Armenian MID [Ministry of Foreign Affairs], announced that the
    meeting of the presidents in Kazan was not a breakthrough because of
    Baku's unconstructive position. "Azerbaijan proved to be unwilling
    to accept the last version of the basic principles of a Karabakh
    settlement presented," he said. "Baku presented about 10 changes,
    which in fact was the reason for the absence of a breakthrough."

    The response from Baku followed immediately. "Unfortunately,
    the Armenian side once again asked for too many concessions. The
    Kazan meeting showed that Armenia is distorting the essence of the
    seven-year-long negotiation process," Elmar Mammadyarov, the head
    of Azerbaijan's MID, announced that same day. And yesterday the
    country's President Ilham Aliyev, while speaking before the start of
    a military parade timed to coincide with the country's Armed Forces
    Day, declared: "I am altogether certain that our territorial integrity
    will be restored by any means. To do that we must be even stronger.

    Armenia's occupation of 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territory is a
    temporary phenomenon."

    And although Baku and Yerevan say that they are willing to continue
    the negotiations, the fate of their dialogue remains in question since
    the failure of the Kazan summit meeting. According to the Kommersant
    source who is a diplomat participating in the negotiations process,
    disagreements that the mediators had already considered resolved long
    ago suddenly surfaced. "They include questions of both a technical
    character and fundamental ones - like determining the future status of
    Nagornyy Karabakh," the Kommersant source explained. "But the problem
    is not even the disagreements themselves, but that the parties changed
    their positions several times apiece. And it cannot be done that way."

    The failure of the Kazan meeting may also have direct consequences
    for the peacemaking initiative of Dmitriy Medvedev, who has been
    actively working on reconciling Azerbaijan and Armenia since the
    autumn of 2009, and has already organized nine trilateral meetings
    on Russia's territory during that time. According to Kommersant's
    highly placed source in the Kremlin, Mr Medvedev is so disappointed
    with the meeting in Kazan that he is ready to terminate his mediation
    efforts in the Karabakh sector.

    "If Azerbaijan and Armenia do not show a willingness in the very
    near future to try to resolve the problems that have built up, we
    will consider this mediation mission over," Kommersant's source warned.

    Moreover, according to him, Dmitriy Medvedev in effect gave an
    ultimatum to the participants in the conflict: the next trilateral
    summit meeting is possible only in the event that a preparatory
    plan on Karabakh is signed there. "The meeting will now take place
    only when both parties firmly announce their willingness to sign the
    principles of a settlement," Kommersant's interlocutor in the Kremlin
    said categorically.

    [translated from Russian]

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