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  • BAKU: Top Azerbaijani Official Predicts Economic Crisis For Armenia

    TOP AZERBAIJANI OFFICIAL PREDICTS ECONOMIC CRISIS FOR ARMENIA THIS YEAR

    news.az
    Aug 1, 2011
    Azerbaijan

    News.Az reprints from Trend an interview with Elnur Aslanov, head of
    the Presidential Administration's political analysis & information
    department.

    What can you say about the economic situation in Armenia?

    Both the political and economic situation in Armenia can be described
    in a single word - deteriorating. It has gone beyond the stagnation
    in which Armenia has been mired for the past decade. Add to this the
    country's worsening demographic and socioeconomic statistics.

    According to Forbes, Armenia today is the second worst economy in
    the world. The country has over 50% growth in prices, while the
    correlation of debt and GDP in 2011 will be up $3.9 billion, or over
    44%. All the same, this figure is growing constantly, since imports
    which make the basis of the Armenian economy, lead to a debt increase
    by exceeding exports. Industrial growth in Armenia in the past decade
    is at a disastrous level and does not exceed 5%.

    Though the country fully depends on external donations from both the
    diaspora and different programs of financial aid, the real unemployment
    level exceeds 30%. It is largely connected to emigration, since due to
    the mass outflow of Armenian citizens, the country sees an increase
    in the number of elderly people and today Armenia is considered an
    aging country by current standards. The demographic crisis in Armenia
    is also largely connected with the drop in the birth rate which is
    clearly tied to the low living conditions and deep economic problems.

    According to Armenia's national statistical service, the birth rate
    in 2010 was 1.38 when mere reproduction needs 2.11. The growth in the
    Armenian population is 13,000 to 14,000 people per year. Considering
    the negative balance of migration, which was 23,000 people in 2008,
    25,000 in 2009 and 29,800 people in 2010, the demographic regression
    in Armenia is more than obvious.

    The economic and political complexities are shown by a poll of
    senior schoolchildren held by the Armenian affiliate of the Czech
    organization People in Need and the UN office in Armenia as part of
    the program "Growing regulation of migration flows in Armenia". It
    showed that 70% of young people are willing to leave Armenia and
    move abroad. In this situation, with respect to official statistics,
    the population of Armenia will drop to 2,330,000 people by 2050. But
    these figures refer only to official statistics, to which official
    propaganda refers. Meanwhile, real indicators show that by 2050 the
    country will have no more than one million people.

    Naturally, the Armenian leadership can use any figures to try to
    prove the opposite, but the birth rate in Armenian families, where
    it has become a luxury to have a second child, is a clear example of
    the real regression of the Armenian state.

    Thus, 2011 will become a year of numerous problems for Armenia as it
    is moving towards default. Inflation is not controlled at all in the
    country and, despite its official rhetoric, it will be double-digit in
    2011 and much higher than the 9.4% inflation rate registered in 2010.

    All that's clear is that Armenia as a state is experiencing the most
    difficult period when it needs to take effective and constructive
    steps. The Armenian leadership should understand that it is not the
    narrow-minded interests of the ruling elite but the needs of Armenian
    society that depend on them. What Armenian leaders are doing today
    against their people is a crime and history and future generations
    will condemn them.

    Has the economic situation had any effect on domestic politics
    in Armenia?

    Armenia as a state has a number of specific features which distinguish
    it from the other countries. First of all, the Armenian political
    stage has organizations that have more members outside Armenia than in
    Armenia itself. Such political movements as Dashnaktsutyun, Heritage
    and Ramkavar Azatakan enjoy more support among the Armenian diaspora
    than in Armenia itself, while their presence in parliament is for
    decoration, a so-called gesture of the ruling group.

    The ruling coalition consists of the party of officials that easily
    change their leaders. This is how it was after the unexpected death
    of former Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan and again after Robert
    Kocharyan's departure. That is, current president Serzh Sargsyan
    cannot rely on the ruling coalition of faceless parties without ideas
    and conscience.

    On the other hand, the political space of Armenia, like its economy,
    is filled with semi-criminal oligarchs who aim to preserve their
    stability and the status of monopolist in any sphere as well as to
    influence the political elite through their political presence. It
    is this group that today controls the few profitable spheres of the
    Armenian economy, though a glimpse at their areas of activity shows
    the primitiveness of their business.

    The World Bank and other influential international financial
    structures, even the former US ambassador to Armenia, Marie
    Yovanovitch, acknowledged the presence of oligopoly in Armenia.

    Recent events have shown changes in relations between government and
    opposition in Armenia. In your view, what is the reason behind this?

    It should be noted that Serzh Sargsyan's odd indulgence towards
    the opposition, in the face of first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan,
    over the last six months is not random. For three years after the
    elections Serzh Sargsyan attached no importance to the Armenian
    National Congress and ignored its demands, because he did not feel
    under threat from within his own team.

    After the theatrical "football diplomacy", the signing of the
    Zurich protocols on the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations,
    Sargsyan, who was one of the thugs in Karabakh who staged a crackdown
    on protesters, killing 10 citizens of Armenia, had a desire to change
    the West's attitude to himself.

    With this in mind, three years later Serzh Sargsyan started a new show,
    a "dialogue with the Armenian National Congress". The purpose of this
    "soap opera", as it is called in Armenia itself, is to give mutual
    assistance in the ousting of political rivals - Robert Kocharyan, the
    Heritage party and Dashnaksutyun. The duplicity of both the authorities
    and opposition bloc against their own people was met with the same
    hostility by the opposition leaders of the Armenian National Congress.

    I think the creation of a new political formation of Free Democrats
    on basis of pro-Western politicians, people from the Congress, will
    create a new political atmosphere of geopolitical confrontation in
    the next parliamentary elections.

    However, delaying the process of dialogue demonstrates that the current
    political leadership of Armenia uses this process to compensate for
    popular discontent and the threat of a "velvet revolution".

    Serzh Sargsyan's recent irresponsible statement containing territorial
    threats to Turkey and unjustified war rhetoric against Azerbaijan
    is intended to create "the image of an enemy" in Armenia, the last
    resort of the opportunism that has ruled Armenia since 2008.

    The foreign policy of Armenia, which spoils relations with its
    neighbours, also plays a role...

    In its relations with its neighbours Armenia has become a country
    that pursues the policy "Everything for me, nothing for others". The
    strange thing is that it shows such an attitude not only to Azerbaijan,
    whose territory it has occupied and with which it is at war, but also
    to the countries that are vital to it.

    Overall, the senseless and inconsistent approach of the Armenian
    leadership is a sign of agitation in the minds of the political elite
    of this country. Sargsyan's call to young people to make territorial
    claims on Turkey is a signal to all the neighbouring countries about
    its aggressive nature and a clear demonstration of how the Armenian
    leadership sees its country now and in the future - laying claim to the
    territory of its neighbours and, therefore, capable of starting a new
    conflict at any time to suit its domestic and foreign policy ambitions.

    One gets the impression that the Armenian political elite failed to
    fully appreciate the historical chance which resulted in the creation
    of Armenian statehood in the Caucasus.

    As a result, today Armenia has blocked itself off geopolitically. The
    lack of neighbourly relations with a number of regional states,
    permanent territorial claims against neighbours and attempts to
    turn religious issues into bargaining chips make Armenia not only
    the vulnerable link in the South Caucasus region, but also the most
    likely factor to destabilize the region.

    Trend



    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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