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  • Could France Play Key Karabakh Role?

    COULD FRANCE PLAY KEY KARABAKH ROLE?
    By Kenan Guluzade

    Institute for War and Peace Reporting IWPR
    CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, No. 602
    August 4, 2011
    UK

    Latest Russian-sponsored effort to resolve conflict comes to naught,
    but some wonder whether Paris is set to replace Moscow as lead
    mediator.

    Hopes were so high before the late June's meeting of the Azerbaijan
    and Armenian presidents that their failure to make progress in a deal
    over Nagorny Karabakh plunged many observers into depression.

    Now the worst of the mood has passed, it is worth asking why we had
    such hopes in the first place and, more importantly, whether our
    despair is justified.

    The meeting was chaired by Russian president Dmitry Medvedev and he,
    along with fellow-mediators France and the United States, had suggested
    an agreement was near.

    Observers wondered whether Medvedev might force Baku and Yerevan to
    accept the outlines of a peace deal.

    No such thing happened. The meeting produced only a vague statement
    about their willingness to meet again. It seems strange now that we
    did not ask why Moscow would expend so much effort to secure a deal.

    For centuries, it has played off the nations of the Caucasus against
    each other.

    Why should it scrap "divide and rule" in favour of "make peace and
    make friends"? If anyone did ask this question, they were normally
    satisfied with explaining it away by recourse to Medvedev's character:
    that he wanted to go down in history as a peacemaker.

    It also seems strange that we did not stop to wonder why we were
    so hopeful about the two countries finalising the basic principles
    underlying the peace process, as the three mediators put it. Even
    before the meeting, those basic principles did not appear close to
    finalisation at all.

    The first version of the principles, which was put forward by the
    mediators in November 2007, had been approved by Azerbaijan, but
    was rejected by Armenia. A second version was prepared, therefore,
    and has been approved by Armenia, but not by Azerbaijan.

    We know the basic components of the principles - the return of
    the territory around Karabakh to Azerbaijan, the awarding of an
    interim status to Karabakh itself, a guarantee of security and
    self-determination, the creation of a corridor between Armenia and
    Karabakh, the resolution of Karabakh's final status by means of a
    referendum, the return of all refugees to their former homes, an
    international security guarantee.

    But, according to various participants, there are between seven and
    15 other conditions that have not been published, and that appears
    to be where the disagreement lies.

    For now, therefore, we are stuck with the status quo: Armenian enforces
    control Karabakh and the surrounding territory; hundreds of thousands
    of refugees live in limbo; Armenia and Azerbaijan have no diplomatic
    relations.

    The Armenians appear to think this situation plays into their hands,
    since the longer they control Karabakh, the harder it will be to take
    it away from them.

    The Azeris, however, also think the situation plays into their
    hands, since they think they are economically and demographically
    outperforming their neighbours, so the longer the wait, the better
    their chances of winning any subsequent conflict.

    But there will not be a war. Russia's role is crucial here, since
    neither Yerevan nor Baku can be sure that Russia will not intervene
    against them. Azerbaijan also has close economic ties with several
    western countries, which it would not want to risk losing.

    Russia has not given up on the process. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
    met his Armenian counterpart Eduard Nalbandyan in Moscow last week,
    then he visited Baku and Yerevan to meet top officials. Azeri foreign
    minister Elmar Mameduarov is expected to visit Moscow, while Lavrov
    will visit Washington for talks with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

    But the letter he brought to Baku and Yerevan contained Medvedev's
    last proposal for the peace deal. In both capitals, he said that
    Medvedev expected replies soon, and Russian newspapers have reported
    that the Kremlin is close to abandoning the process if the replies
    are unsatisfactory.

    That is why comments in early July by French foreign minister Alain
    Juppe, that he had "extra" proposals to make to Armenia and Azerbaijan,
    were particularly interesting. Azerbaijan's foreign minister has
    already met him, and you have to wonder if France might not be set
    to replace Russia in its lead mediating role.

    And, in fact, France has a strong record in the South Caucasus,
    and it could well prove to be a good intermediary. Firstly, it was
    Nicolas Sarkozy who stepped in to mediate between Moscow and Tbilisi
    to seal a ceasefire in the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.

    Secondly, although the Cold War ended two decades ago, America and
    Russia often need an intermediary themselves. So, perhaps France could
    not only mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but between the other
    mediators: and that might be what is needed to finally secure a deal.

    Kenan Guluzade is a regular IWPR contributor.

    The views expressed in this article are not necessarily the views
    of IWPR.

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