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RUSSIA AND AZERBAIJAN: AN OBSTACLE TO THE U.S. IN THE CAUCASUS?
EurasiaNet.org
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64035
Aug 12 2011
NY
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Russia on Aug. 9
to meet with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. Much of the media
coverage ahead of this visit focused on Russia's continuing efforts
to negotiate a settlement to the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan
and Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, Russia and
Azerbaijan had broader-reaching issues to discuss.
According to STRATFOR sources in Russia, the overall state of
US-Russian relations is deteriorating. The Caucasus is one of the
battlegrounds between Washington and Moscow, and conditions there have
long been an indicator of Washington's and Moscow's positions relative
to each other. Russia wants to use its relationship with Azerbaijan
to remind the United States of Moscow's influence in the region.
Azerbaijan, meanwhile, wants to pressure Washington and assist Moscow
as part of its overall strategy to play outside interests against
each other so as to improve its position to pursue its own goals.
Russia, having grown more confident in its geopolitical position,
has developed a dual policy of cooperation and confrontation with the
United States over the past year. Although Washington and Moscow are
cooperating in a few areas , Russia is growing frustrated with the
United States on several issues, including Washington's plans for
ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems in Central Europe .
Most recently, the US Congress approved several pieces of anti-Russian
legislation that have caused quite a stir in Moscow. â~@¨On July 26,
the US Senate passed legislation blacklisting visas for some 60 Russian
officials accused of being involved with the death of lawyer Sergei
Magnitsky, and on July 29 the Senate passed a resolution calling for
Moscow to withdraw its troops from South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Additionally, the CIA delivered a report to Congress on July 28
accusing Russia of being behind a series of bombings in Georgia in
2010, including an attempted bombing of the US Embassy there. Although
the legislation does not necessarily represent the administration's
sentiments, Russia is beginning to worry that certain strongly
anti-Russian politicians could gain even more power in the upcoming
US election season.
Outstanding issues between Washington and Moscow will become more
pronounced at major bilateral meetings this fall, including Medvedev's
next meeting with US President Barack Obama and the next round of
NATO-Russia talks on BMD. Russia is using Aliyev's visit to emphasize
its relationship with Azerbaijan ahead of those meetings. By reminding
the United States of its influence in the Caucasus, Moscow is showing
Washington that any aggressive moves the United States makes regarding
Georgia will not go unanswered.
Azerbaijan has reasons for cooperating with Russia. US-Azerbaijani
relations are, on the whole, problematic. For instance, the United
States has a large and influential Armenian lobby, which at times
can lead Washington to support Armenian interests over Azerbaijan's
(as with the ongoing US weapons embargo against Azerbaijan).
Despite the differences between Washington and Baku, the United States
remains very interested in the country's energy sector. Following the
collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States invested significant
amounts of money in Azerbaijan's energy industry. Although Washington
has been distracted by conflicts in the Islamic world, the geopolitical
interests that led the United States to invest in Azerbaijan's
energy sector remain, and Washington would like to have a say in
the industry's development. With Russia's resurgence in full swing,
the United States would like to see Azerbaijan play a critical role in
developing energy production and transportation systems that will allow
European markets to diversify away from Russian energy supplies. If
Russia and Azerbaijan were to forge an agreement leading Azerbaijan to
focus on developing energy projects that do not interfere with Russia's
energy dominance, it would be a blow to US interests in the region.
Azerbaijan, more than the other Caucasus states, plays major outside
powers' interests against each other in order to gain the best position
to pursue its own interests -- primarily the development of its oil and
natural gas sectors. Azerbaijan is unlikely to commit itself fully to
Russia or any other country, as Baku does not want the future of its
energy industry beholden to one single player. However, Moscow and
Baku both benefit in negotiations with other parties by suggesting
that cooperation between them is possible. This is the same strategy
Russia and Azerbaijan are using with Aliyev's visit with Medvedev: They
are using the meeting as an opportunity to remind the United States
that the possibility of cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan --
at the expense of US interests -- is always there.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
EurasiaNet.org
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64035
Aug 12 2011
NY
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Russia on Aug. 9
to meet with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. Much of the media
coverage ahead of this visit focused on Russia's continuing efforts
to negotiate a settlement to the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan
and Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, Russia and
Azerbaijan had broader-reaching issues to discuss.
According to STRATFOR sources in Russia, the overall state of
US-Russian relations is deteriorating. The Caucasus is one of the
battlegrounds between Washington and Moscow, and conditions there have
long been an indicator of Washington's and Moscow's positions relative
to each other. Russia wants to use its relationship with Azerbaijan
to remind the United States of Moscow's influence in the region.
Azerbaijan, meanwhile, wants to pressure Washington and assist Moscow
as part of its overall strategy to play outside interests against
each other so as to improve its position to pursue its own goals.
Russia, having grown more confident in its geopolitical position,
has developed a dual policy of cooperation and confrontation with the
United States over the past year. Although Washington and Moscow are
cooperating in a few areas , Russia is growing frustrated with the
United States on several issues, including Washington's plans for
ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems in Central Europe .
Most recently, the US Congress approved several pieces of anti-Russian
legislation that have caused quite a stir in Moscow. â~@¨On July 26,
the US Senate passed legislation blacklisting visas for some 60 Russian
officials accused of being involved with the death of lawyer Sergei
Magnitsky, and on July 29 the Senate passed a resolution calling for
Moscow to withdraw its troops from South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Additionally, the CIA delivered a report to Congress on July 28
accusing Russia of being behind a series of bombings in Georgia in
2010, including an attempted bombing of the US Embassy there. Although
the legislation does not necessarily represent the administration's
sentiments, Russia is beginning to worry that certain strongly
anti-Russian politicians could gain even more power in the upcoming
US election season.
Outstanding issues between Washington and Moscow will become more
pronounced at major bilateral meetings this fall, including Medvedev's
next meeting with US President Barack Obama and the next round of
NATO-Russia talks on BMD. Russia is using Aliyev's visit to emphasize
its relationship with Azerbaijan ahead of those meetings. By reminding
the United States of its influence in the Caucasus, Moscow is showing
Washington that any aggressive moves the United States makes regarding
Georgia will not go unanswered.
Azerbaijan has reasons for cooperating with Russia. US-Azerbaijani
relations are, on the whole, problematic. For instance, the United
States has a large and influential Armenian lobby, which at times
can lead Washington to support Armenian interests over Azerbaijan's
(as with the ongoing US weapons embargo against Azerbaijan).
Despite the differences between Washington and Baku, the United States
remains very interested in the country's energy sector. Following the
collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States invested significant
amounts of money in Azerbaijan's energy industry. Although Washington
has been distracted by conflicts in the Islamic world, the geopolitical
interests that led the United States to invest in Azerbaijan's
energy sector remain, and Washington would like to have a say in
the industry's development. With Russia's resurgence in full swing,
the United States would like to see Azerbaijan play a critical role in
developing energy production and transportation systems that will allow
European markets to diversify away from Russian energy supplies. If
Russia and Azerbaijan were to forge an agreement leading Azerbaijan to
focus on developing energy projects that do not interfere with Russia's
energy dominance, it would be a blow to US interests in the region.
Azerbaijan, more than the other Caucasus states, plays major outside
powers' interests against each other in order to gain the best position
to pursue its own interests -- primarily the development of its oil and
natural gas sectors. Azerbaijan is unlikely to commit itself fully to
Russia or any other country, as Baku does not want the future of its
energy industry beholden to one single player. However, Moscow and
Baku both benefit in negotiations with other parties by suggesting
that cooperation between them is possible. This is the same strategy
Russia and Azerbaijan are using with Aliyev's visit with Medvedev: They
are using the meeting as an opportunity to remind the United States
that the possibility of cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan --
at the expense of US interests -- is always there.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress